Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[devalpha] 22/1/2018 20:16

Is everyone assuming there's a trading update on Wednesday because that was the date last year or have I missed that this is actually confirmed?I think they'll put out an update this week at some point nevertheless.Still don't buy that anyone's going to pay well over £3billion for Fevertree currently but I may be wrong.I'm not interested in any takeover, as I'd much prefer to hold these shares for the next couple of years. With the appropriate support and newly enhanced team, I think they'll be more than capable of growing much further from current levels. I want a positive trading update but no takeover.

[villarich] 22/1/2018 19:18

I agree. I doubt there will be takeover news in the update

[christh] 22/1/2018 19:16

There's no smoke without fire!
The company never commented on a takeover or market speculation.
Neither said yes nor said no.

So most likely an offer was on the table and it's waiting to be announced either
on Wednesday or in March with the final results.

Unilever is in frame to place an offer but waiting to hear reactions from other
Drink or consumer companies.

I have in fact bought more today as my instict tells me the shares are too cheap at £28, and I do expect a higher offer from a rival company and maybe hostile takeover.
I wonder how many funds have increased their holding pending the imminent takeover.

So keep Buying and keep watching the volumes!

[wetdream] 22/1/2018 18:19

C'mon folks. Let's just wait & see what Wednesday brings.;-)
I think the figures will be excellent (ie beat expectations). But I think those expecting takeover news will be disappointed.
All imho.

[ccr1958] 22/1/2018 18:07

Oh my tea leaves prediction, working for me buddy ... it’s called having a sense of humour!!!

[ccr1958] 22/1/2018 17:57

Give what ,numpty ?

[sogoesit] 22/1/2018 17:46

Lol!
If you give it, you gotta take it! ;-)

[sogoesit] 22/1/2018 17:39

The chart was being interpreted today by "tea-leaf" watchers as indicating a take-over while "held in a range".
On this interpretation I have 4 take-over targets in my portfolio today. Unbelievably lucky!
;-)

[ccr1958] 22/1/2018 17:24

Oriss, could just be build up to trading update .... certainly something positive in the air .... how’s the chart chaps ?

[orissander] 22/1/2018 17:13

No, but i think that some news leaked and many bought in the last days so a takeover is near.

[sogoesit] 22/1/2018 16:56

Looks like, from the posts today, quite a few folks on the G&Ts today!
Good entertainment.

[wetdream] 22/1/2018 15:51

orissander,
If you were planning a bid for a company, would you make a move in public that might instantly push the asking price up 20/25%?

[ccr1958] 22/1/2018 15:28

Spoke to soon ,shakey,shakey !

[orissander] 22/1/2018 14:51

Really strange that seems 25£ the safe price today to see the bid on 24 of this month.
The price is steady at 24,9£ so the Takeover seems true.

[wetdream] 22/1/2018 14:49

Certainly a strange looking chart. share price definitely being held at just sub£25.
same old question-how much of the (exceptional?) results is in the price now?

[christh] 22/1/2018 13:29

Everyone and their opinion.
Mine is £25+10% premium

The company has its trading statement in 2 days time, 24 January.
It will issue an RNS saying that "received an approach for a takeover bid by Unilever".

The offer is £28 plus £0.50 cash.

Just wait!

That is my opinion.

[orissander] 22/1/2018 13:28

Right now I am Sipping a Monkey 47 Gin with Fever-tree tonic, ice and juniper berries. Really Tasty. :)

[villarich] 22/1/2018 13:20

No I don't. I think it's all paper talk. I won't believe it until I see an RNS confirming an approach and talks.That said, something may be going on. A similar thing happened with Aldermore late last year. The share price popped and then a day later the RNS came out confirming takeover talks which pushed it even higher.All the stories have been about Havelock who has Unilever links but hardly anything has been made about his other links with Pepsi. What about Popkin's links with Red Bull, Jaegermeister and Vita Coco?

[orissander] 22/1/2018 13:16

they seems to be the companies that could do a takeover.
I really can't understand why KO didn't buyout this company as soon as last year at least.
Why throw money on schweppes when all the gin world is disgusted by it. I really can't understand.

[ccr1958] 22/1/2018 13:12

Villa, do you believe the aforementioned companies are contemplating an offer for FEVR ?

[villarich] 22/1/2018 13:09

Completely agree it's high growth but I still can't get higher than £3.25bn for a takeover.Assuming a very ambitious 50% growth in post-tax profit is maintained to the end of 2020, you get the following profit and multiples of a £3.25bn take over (rough figures) - 2018 - £64m (50x)2019 - £96m (33x)2020 - £145m (22x)If I had £3bn + to spend on a company, I'd want a quicker return on my money. And to accelerate that I'd have to spend more on marketing etc. That said I'd probably find some efficiencies too by merging some operations. I hope I'm wrong but just my view.

[orissander] 22/1/2018 12:46

I agree with your data, olny thing i don't like is that this company is growing really fast and even if Unilever or pepsi buy it now at a premium in 5 years this would be a fire sale. Only this.
It's ok to pay high for a one of a kind company.
Regards.

[villarich] 22/1/2018 12:37

There is no formula for takeover terms. It is determined by two factors. 1. The price the buyer (Unilever, Pepsi etc) are willing to pay.2. The price The FEVR board would be willing to accept.There is no hard rule. Or did you say £25 + 10% as that's your target? I can't see any buyer offering more than £3bn, maybe £3.25bn (£26 - £28.20 a share). Post- tax profit forecasts are at 47m for next year and 55m for the following. That said, They will need to pay a premium to market cap so £3.25bn could be hit.

[ccr1958] 22/1/2018 12:34

1code just gone thru RNS lodged ? I watching the volume !