Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 24/1/2018 16:10

Don't you mean it's his only share?

[villarich] 24/1/2018 16:06

Oh dear Christh. Try again. Cadbury wasn't Kraft's first confectionary brand purchase in 2010. Jacobs Suchard (Toblerone) in 1990Marabou in 1993Freia in 1993Shall I go on?

[panic investor] 24/1/2018 15:53

Chris calm down it's only a share !

[wetdream] 24/1/2018 15:52

From Tuesday's Times:
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Diageo, the drinks maker behind Smirnoff and Guinness, which is due to publish half-year figures on Thursday, closed down 29½p at £25.92. Having announced a £1.5 billion share buyback, analysts at AB Bernstein suggested yesterday that this should be increased to £2.5 billion.
“If Diageo announces an increased programme [this week], we think this would be well received by the markets,” they told clients.
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[martywidget] 24/1/2018 15:48

Fevertree's Feverish Valuation
At these levels, a bidder could see better value elsewhere.
By Andrea Felsted

[christh] 24/1/2018 15:45

Look at kraft, they are selling
Beverages. Cappuccino. Coffee Beans. Ground Coffee. ...
Cheese. Cheese Sauce. Cream Cheese. ...
Condiments. Appetizer Dips. Barbecue Sauce. ...
Desserts and Baking Ingredients. Baking Powder. Cheesecakes. ...
Meat. Lunchables. OM Beef Franks. ...
Meat Alternatives. Burgers. Crumbles.
Prepared Entrees. Macaroni & Cheese.
Salad Dressings. Dry Mix. Liquid.

and yet they bought Cadburys which makes chocolate products!

[christh] 24/1/2018 15:38

Why it's interesting

Analysts continue to be stunned by the rapid growth of the brand.

“There is no stopping the momentum behind the Fevertree brand," said Neil Wilson of ETX Capital Markets. He said the multiple upgrades this year marked "exceptional performance by a brand that has simply got everything right so far. We’re running out of superlatives."

Coinciding with the gin trend, which has also resulted in the number of distilleries in the UK more than doubling, Fever-Tree's rise has continued apace. By the end of last year it was the UK's number one mixer in the retail sector by value.

All this, along with the appointment of a Unilever executive as a non-executive director earlier this month, has fuelled takeover talk.

Neil Wilson said the company was "certainly a takeover play for one of the big FMCG brands but there appears to be plenty of organic growth left in the tank, particularly outside the core UK market."

Last year Fever-Tree took its US operations into its own hands and appointed a former LVMH executive as CEO of North America.

hxxp://www.cityam.com/279365/fever-tree-claims-retail-top-spot-mixer-market-uk-revenue

[sogoesit] 24/1/2018 15:36

DD4 post 1837.
You are right, there is no reason at all why anyone who is not a player in one market cannot purchase a company selling in another market, regulatory or otherwise.
However, if they did, for diversification say, then it would be questionable strategically, especially if they had to pay a high price for a change in strategic direction. Unilever’s refreshments are currently in the tea market.

Secondly, the RNS of 11 January says that the NEDS were appointed for “insight”; and to strengthen the board. If you or I read that, and believed that, did not act as if a t/o were coming we could accuse management of misleading us, and probably acting against their fiduciary duty in placing one, of many other players (Diageo etc), on the board to give that player inside knowledge and conflict of interest without making a declaration to that effect.

Of course that is my surmise and the market will draw its own conclusions.

[Edit note: sure that it’s “fun” for any traders, short term players or others to trade on rumour but not great for long term holders to deal with the volatility of what is truth or garbage and how to manage our positions. Today’s price action bears that out... folks who bought near the top if they thought something was coming would be suffering. Luckily my average average acquisition cost is way below the current share price & I haven’t traded recently in this holding. Others may not feel so happy.]

[villarich] 24/1/2018 15:35

So yeah as ccr says it's not imminent. There is not a single shred of evidence that anyone has approached Fevertree. If there was then both Fevertree and the potential suitor would need to declare it in an RNS.Once again you're just hoping this happens. It's ok to admit it.

[christh] 24/1/2018 15:28

ccr1958
no, it is not imminent because the procedure laid down is to open the books to the bidder.
The results day will show to the bidder the books as approved by the accountants
and then, they will table the offer.
We should have news in March and who will make the highest offer.

[villarich] 24/1/2018 15:24

What experience is that then? Which companies were you holding when they got taken over?

[ccr1958] 24/1/2018 15:23

It would seem that is not imminent tho chris

[christh] 24/1/2018 15:20

Villarich
I have not sold any shares, because I know from experience that Fevertree will be taken out by a big boy so holding on tight on my shares.
I have seen companies dissapearing if they do well.

"the make you an offer ,you can not refuse".

[ccr1958] 24/1/2018 15:17

Orris , it is disappointing....Sell on news is the norm nowadays. I took some profit because I am sick of missing out ! I now have some dry powder to go again.. taken me years to learn my lessons.....aimo !

[orissander] 24/1/2018 15:09

We lost 10 percent in a day. Really disappointing stock price action.

[discodave4] 24/1/2018 14:54

Thanks Villa, yep don't listen to rumours.Would agree with your analysis, key for me is US market which if they sort and crack could retain 60% growth, but as posted this morning, current growth is not too good....the markets opening across the pond and the dip here may be further testament to that.DD

[wetdream] 24/1/2018 14:43

Looks like the euphoria around an excellent set of results is dissipating.
Imho key to 2018s performance will be their progress in the US and how much $$ it takes to achieve that.
Also the share price will be a reflection of the patience (or lack of it) of 'investors'.
Certainly, I don't see the institutions backing out any time soon. But PIs are a different matter. ;-)

[bamboo2] 24/1/2018 14:40

lol steptoe/villa

[ccr1958] 24/1/2018 14:40

Thx villa,interesting!

[villarich] 24/1/2018 14:39

Yes agreed. What am I doing?? Please ignore all of my previous posts.Fevertree will grow to £50 this year. Mark my words. (Insert company name) will buy it. Look at the FACTS (insert link to 3 month old news story).

[muffinhead] 24/1/2018 14:30

Fevertree is amazing stuff


sells at ~ 33p per 100mls
Schweppes ~ 10p per 100mls
supermarkets ~ 5p per 100mls


£2.7 billion market cap ... 17 times sales
If Unilever was to buy, the price per 100mls would have to reduce closer to Schweppes, as Unilever is a mass market househouse products company. Then the maths don't work.

[steptoes yard] 24/1/2018 14:29

It is essential that you all understand that Christ is the final arbiter on all matters pertaining to Fevertree and that we are simply slaves to his proclamations and our own views should be unequivocally disregarded.

[villarich] 24/1/2018 14:24

I've done some really rough analysis based on the limited financial information given in today's update to see where the share price might go over the next year or so. They are really rough figures with roundings but hopefully it all makes sense. I'll revisit when the full results are released.

Last years reported Post-Tax Profit was £27.5m from revenues of £102m (roughly 27% of revenue was turned into PTP). Using that percentage on today's reported revenue figure, I'm getting £45.6m in profit which gives us EPS of 39.6p. I've rounded this to 40p for ease.

I get a current multiple of 104 based on 24p EPS. If we applied 104 to 40p EPS we get a share price of £41. It would be wrong though to apply 104 to this EPS because the current multiple has that growth factored in. If we apply a multiple of 60 (this time last year the multiple was around 60) to 40p EPS we get £24. Right where we are now.

If EPS does come in at 40p then EPS growth is 66%. Let's assume growth continues at a similar, albeit slightly lower pace of 50% this year. That gives us an EPS of 60p in 2018. Applying a multiple of 60 to that gives us a share price of £35.64. Again it's probably wrong to apply the same multiple again so a multiple of 50 gives us an share price of £29.70 (18% up from now).

As I said there's loads of assumptions in here but I'd be interested to see the EPS in the full results and will revisit my thoughts. Overall, I won't be selling any time soon. Then again I wont be topping up either. It's a hold for me.