Falk IS. Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[noirua] 24/5/2010 23:26

If the Falkland Islands take-off in a big way, then Tesco might come in with some of their smaller stores. Probably take a major stake in FKL - long shot of course.

[robson1974] 24/5/2010 23:21

They also have the option to sell Momart and PHFC which could generate 20m+ and also take on some debt. I suspect many financiers will be beating a path to their door to offer advice/funding. This is like the start of the North Sea or Saudi oil boom, a real once in a generation opportunity. I would not want to be left on the sidelines looking in as this spirals higher.

[craftyspeculator] 24/5/2010 22:47

Sell chunks of FOGL as it goes from £5 to £50, and reinvest in Falkland land infrastructure

[goldenshare888] 24/5/2010 18:06

Sale of FOGL shares perhaps...

[819332] 24/5/2010 17:42

I was in the Falklands in '07 and although there has been a lot of development (relative to what the Islands are used to), the infrastructure in Stanley is really not geared up to cope with an oil rush, it all seems a bit chicken and egg to me. Can someone help me out as I would expect FKL to use a considerable amount of cash to develop the kind of set-up the oilers will need to then generate the revenues form the use of their infrastructure, equipment, services etc? I imagine that is why they sold down their FOGL shares? How did it happen in Aberdeen? - was it a slow burn, organic development or did it all happen at mach 10?

As FKL have a near monopoly they will have to expand at a huge rate to cope with what is demanded of them otherwise they could actually hold up the development? If they can't keep pace, I suppose we will see other services companies competing and gaining share but as FKL have the only infrastructure, any other competing firm would have to start from scratch further along the coast if the Govt allow as the military did with Mare Harbour. I can't see that happening due to the environmental impact.

I am rambling but how do people see the company financing the investment required? TIA

[robson1974] 24/5/2010 17:29

Just a reminder of the last RNS from FKL (22nd April) on current trading and the date of the next major announcement from them :-

The Group's preliminary results will be released on 23 June 2010.

Falkland Islands Holdings plc ("FIH" or the "Group"), the AIM quoted international services group which owns essential services businesses focused on transport and logistics and which has a major shareholding in AIM quoted oil exploration company Falkland Oil and Gas Limited ("FOGL"), is pleased to provide the following update on trading for the year ended 31 March 2010.

The FIH Board expects the results for the financial year ended 31 March 2010 to be above market expectations with underlying pre-tax profits ( before amortisation and non trading items ) a little ahead of the re-stated prior year figure of £2.3 million.

Highlights

· Falkland Islands Company - Stronger results than anticipated from the Group's business in the Falkland Islands, with freight and local service businesses boosted by oil exploration activity and mine clearance operations. Profits from property disposals and encouraging year on year growth at the newly extended West Store also contributed.

· Portsmouth Harbour Ferry Company - Previously implemented fare rises and tight control of operating costs offset a 4.3% decline in annual passenger numbers.

· Momart - Recovery in the commercial art market and success in winning large exhibition contracts boosted revenues and performance in the second half resulting in results ahead of budget.

· Liquidity - Helped by the sale of three million FOGL shares for £3.6 million in November 2009, the Group's cash position will show cash balances in excess of £3 million and net borrowings reduced to below £2 million at 31 March 2010.

· The Group's pre-tax profits will be boosted materially by the £3.1 million profit on the sale of FOGL shares in November 2009 together with £0.2 million of cash compensation received for the early surrender of a property lease at Momart.

· FOGL stake - The initial disappointing results reported by other companies now drilling the North Falklands basin have not affected prospects for success in the geologically separate South Falklands Basin where FOGL has its licence. Drilling on FOGL's Toroa prospect is expected to commence by the middle of the year.

· FIH retains 12 million FOGL shares (8.2% holding). At a price per FOGL share of 130p the market value of this holding at 31 March 2010 was £15.6 million.

[robson1974] 24/5/2010 17:13

edit :

NB FKL actually own 12m FOGL shares not 8m as i stated (thanks to goodboke et al for pointing this out)

my post 81 should have read as follows, thanks for the correction



---------------------------------------------------------------


FKL has a Market Value of £48m.

However they also have 12m shares in FOGL worth about £21m
FKL also bought Momart for c.£10m
FKL also bought Portsmouth Harbour Ferry Company for c.£8.5m

So the actual Enterprise Value being applied to the only listed Falklands property and shipping company is (£48m - £21m - £10m - £8.5m) £8m !

Combined Market Value of Falkland Oilers = £1100m

Enterprise Value of only listed Falklands Property/Shipping play = £8m

[goldrush] 24/5/2010 17:05

Managed a limit top up of 1000 at 544p just before the bell.

Look forward to FOGL spud tomorrow....hopefully.

robson1974

Many thanks for all the good info on the BB ....hoping FKL can do us all proud....IMHO

[robson1974] 24/5/2010 16:02

I've actually no idea who owns the docks, Byron are the main shipping services company in the Falklands.

[farnham] 24/5/2010 16:01

made my first buy here,been heavily in falklands since RKH 14p,holding all 4 ,seems sensible to put some here too.

[ohsod1t] 24/5/2010 15:58

I thought it was going to drop back as the sellers came in, but the 10,000 buy just took them all.

[holism] 24/5/2010 15:51

robson, thanks will look at FKL, do they own all the docks etc?

[robson1974] 24/5/2010 12:44

FOGL does look 'cheap' here. But FKL is stunningly so IMO.

FKL gives exposure to the potential from both Falklands basins. Superb mixture of limited downside risk but huge potential upside. Really do feel the market has missed how stunning the risk-reward ratio is here. I have only really realised the extreme valuation discrepancy myself despite having followed the Falklands story for over 12 years.

Falkland Oilers combined market value = c.£1200m+

Enterprise Value of the only listed Falklands property & shipping play = c.£12m

[whackford] 24/5/2010 12:36

FOGL spud date scheduled for tomorrow, so that might give them a lift.

[zztop] 24/5/2010 12:14

whats the normal market size here?

[goldrush] 24/5/2010 12:08

Nobody watching?

The trength is there to see....usually if there is one MM on the offer quoting 1k he will not sell them for that price as I believe he does not have them.....IMHO.....This has happened to me three times in the last 3 weeks.

[goldrush] 24/5/2010 08:13

Looking good....IMHO

[robson1974] 23/5/2010 16:37

I will certainly be buying more FKL over coming weeks. Upside is huge (maybe the most I have ever seen on a stock) whilst downside is limited by the very small Enterprise Value.

[richgit] 22/5/2010 22:51

Lets cross fingers,

It could just save the UK from joining the Olive Squeezers,whilst FKl`s share
-whatever is agreed-will make them Super rich.

Of course nobody is going to find 60Billion bls; before several drills,yet just
some more to add to the idea it exists-will do no harm.

Offering a plausible dream,- people will buy more into it,as most dont even know about it -yet.

I remember,Dragon Oil years ago,and couldnt believe how many had invested in it
as the word apparenty seriously went around -particularly Bank staff,yet so many I talk to have no clue about what is happening in the Falklands.

Last time the drills were underway,the Daily Mail,were going to do a running feature,yet of course it all fizzled out,as Oil was truly at it lows,and the drill campaign came to an abrupt end..

[keya5000] 22/5/2010 21:31

Got a few last week seems very cheap at these prices. RKH will no doubt firm up their Sealion find within the next two weeks and then these are completely derisked IMO.

[robson1974] 22/5/2010 20:52

This is dirt cheap, they should sell Momart and PHFC and start buying up Falklands infrastructure assets before anyone else gets their act together.

[goldenshare888] 22/5/2010 20:18

Enterprise £9 million then?

WOW

[goodboke] 22/5/2010 18:18

Robson:

They have 12 million and not 8 million shares as you state.This represents 8% of the market cap

[robson1974] 22/5/2010 17:46

Just been looking at the figures again and it is actually an even more extreme valuation discrepancy than I thought.

FKL has a Market Value of £48m.

However they also have 8m shares in FOGL worth about £14m
FKL also bought Momart for c.£10m
FKL also bought Portsmouth Harbour Ferry Company for c.£8.5m

So the actual Enterprise Value being applied to the only listed Falklands property and shipping company is (£48m - £14m - £10m - £8.5m) £16m !

Combined Market Value of Falkland Oilers = £1100m

Enterprise Value of only listed Falklands Property/Shipping play = £16m

[goodboke] 22/5/2010 12:39

cant believe how cheap these appear to be relative to the falkland oil companies.Seems a no brainer to me which is why i switched from RKH TO fkl.You have the the relative safe haven status but with the huge upside potential!All in my opinion of course and always do the research as i have done on this one