Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[qsmeily456] 09/2/2021 12:53

And the rampers?

cyberbub

helmet1

1sirbag

lendmeafiver

apfindley

harrisun

Sell on news....now the hard work starts getting the fantasy into reality

[apfindley] 09/2/2021 11:54

Forgive us for dismissing someone who appears negative , has an account of just over a year old with only 25 postings...most of which have only just been made on eml in past few weeks.For someone as bothered as yourself, I would've expected a larger posting history....or did you just setup a load of burner accounts a year ago?Zero credibility....I will dismiss you to the filter until your posts are more worthy of attention.

[1airbag] 09/2/2021 11:34

there is a prediction of huge population growth in Africa, i.e. Nigeria going from around 200 million to 800 million by 2100.

these people need to eat.

[harrisun] 09/2/2021 11:00

With emphasis on reduction of fossil fuels, where many fertilisers are a product from hydrocarbon production then I don't believe there will be a shortage of companies seeking either to acquire Emmerson or JV with them. Even some of the big oil companies will want to diversify.

[cottoner] 09/2/2021 10:50

Recent tweet by Hayden Locke



Potash back in favour as food prices rise. #EML is moving swiftly towards construction at the world class #Khemisset Project, so the timing couldn't be better. Looking to permit in early 2021 and close strategic investors and debt during the year. #potash

[qsmeily456] 09/2/2021 10:41

And the rampers?

cyberbub

helmet1

lendmeafiver

apfindley

Sell on news....now the hard work starts getting the fantasy into reality

[donald pond] 09/2/2021 10:37

I'm not sure NPV is that useful a metric anyway. I'm more interested in how much post tax profit the company will make once in production, how quickly it can pay off debt and likely quantum and timing of dividends.

[highly geared] 09/2/2021 10:34

The focus will be to expedite the financing and development partners ASAP as EML is now vulnerable to approaches/bids.

[cyberbub] 09/2/2021 10:31

Mesb the key point is that even in the most pessimistic scenario the company will still be profitable, and the share price will still be several times higher than today...

[mesb48] 09/2/2021 10:27

I wasn't seeking to imply the company won't get finance or be competitive on its operating costs. In both cases I'm sure it will. We can all pick whatever cash flow or NPV figure we like to justify investing in this company, but there are a lot of people ramping this without noting the sensitivities behind most of the NPV figures being banded around.

[cyberbub] 09/2/2021 10:15

Mesb the $1.4bn is the NPV using a $460 average price for the life of the mine... That price was provided by industry forecasters Argus. That's a 'real' price so including inflation - clearly in 10 or 20 years' time the MOP price will be higher anyway due to inflation.More recently they have used the more conservative scenario of a $360 MOP price, but that still leads to a $1.1bn NPV. It's good that they take an underpromise/overdelivet approach.Plus salt which could develop into a substantial business.Plus SOP added value could start to kick in after a couple of years.All good!!DYOR

[harrisun] 09/2/2021 10:13

1airbag

Your calculations will probably never be seen by Emmerson, as with the license today I'd expect Emmerson to be on the shopping list of some majors.

[11_percent] 09/2/2021 09:56

....this is a bet on potash prices increasing back up.

Not necessarily, they may be able to mine at a cost where they can undercut the market......although you do not want to start a “price war”........as per 10 years ago when the Cartel blew up.

[sportbilly1976] 09/2/2021 09:43

1airbag - $1.8bln rings a bell from the Feasibility study and broker reports :)

[mymini] 09/2/2021 09:41

Emmerson hail receiving mining licence for 100% owned Khemisset potash project as 'massive step'

[apfindley] 09/2/2021 09:41

Are those the same banks who approached and offered 230mill already before the feasibility study or the environmental study or the licenses being signed.?You need to research a bit more.Also if you encompass the full license and the salt and the sop plus mop....then the npv actually increases to over 2.4billion.Factor in historic potash prices which could well return due to demand from an increasing population then the recent presentation highlights a figure of more than treble the npv8.

[jrjr99] 09/2/2021 09:40

Potash outlook 2021: A look ahead
MOP prices have held at US$202 for the last seven months; however, potash-focused analysts and sector participants believe an increase in food demand and the loss of fertile land, along with population growth, are undeniable and will result in higher values.

Hemphill expects prices to rise over time if the global community can gain control of the coronavirus.

“The global MOP market entered 2021 with roughly the same degree of supply and demand as before — albeit with pricing well below that seen at the end of 2019,” said Hemphill.

“Over time, it is likely MOP offers will tick up, spurred by firmer contract prices in India and China — although the highs seen in years past will remain distant memories until a reliable cure for COVID-19 can be found, and the world turned right side up once again.”

In the short term, an increase in contracts penned by Indian buyers in January is seen as likely and could be a potential tailwind. For the long term, Hemphill sees a more balanced market with positive fundamentals, barring a few caveats.

[1airbag] 09/2/2021 09:29

I went with the consensus line in their last report which is potash at $360

[1airbag] 09/2/2021 09:29

I got to $1.819 billion

[1airbag] 09/2/2021 09:28

Discount 8%

Investment Consensus EBIDTA $(411,000,000.00)
1 0.92 $244,000,000.00 $224,480,000.00 $(186,520,000.00)
2 0.8464 $244,000,000.00 $206,521,600.00 $20,001,600.00
3 0.778688 $244,000,000.00 $189,999,872.00 $210,001,472.00
4 0.71639296 $244,000,000.00 $174,799,882.24 $384,801,354.24
5 0.659081523 $244,000,000.00 $160,815,891.66 $545,617,245.90
6 0.606355001 $244,000,000.00 $147,950,620.33 $693,567,866.23
7 0.557846601 $244,000,000.00 $136,114,570.70 $829,682,436.93
8 0.513218873 $244,000,000.00 $125,225,405.05 $954,907,841.98
9 0.472161363 $244,000,000.00 $115,207,372.64 $1,070,115,214.62
10 0.434388454 $244,000,000.00 $105,990,782.83 $1,176,105,997.45
11 0.399637378 $244,000,000.00 $97,511,520.20 $1,273,617,517.65
12 0.367666388 $244,000,000.00 $89,710,598.59 $1,363,328,116.24
13 0.338253077 $244,000,000.00 $82,533,750.70 $1,445,861,866.94
14 0.311192831 $244,000,000.00 $75,931,050.64 $1,521,792,917.59
15 0.286297404 $244,000,000.00 $69,856,566.59 $1,591,649,484.18
16 0.263393612 $244,000,000.00 $64,268,041.27 $1,655,917,525.44
17 0.242322123 $244,000,000.00 $59,126,597.96 $1,715,044,123.41
18 0.222936353 $244,000,000.00 $54,396,470.13 $1,769,440,593.54
19 0.205101445 $244,000,000.00 $50,044,752.52 $1,819,485,346.05

[mesb48] 09/2/2021 09:28

NPV of $1.4bn in the feasibility study, but at what potash price? At today's/more recent prices, it looks nowhere near as good. The company doesn't show that in its presentations but the banks will not fall for it in the lending discussions. Now the mining licence is won, this is a bet on potash prices increasing back up.

[1airbag] 09/2/2021 09:20

Is the npv8 figure worked based on 19 years?

Does it assume production starts in 2023? I recall they said starting construction end of 2021 but with production 18 months thereafter?

8% discount would compound a lot over 21 years.

[apfindley] 09/2/2021 09:07

Smelly already bought whilst he was deramping.

[kcaco] 09/2/2021 09:03

I remember a few negative posts when Graham Clarke came over . This was never another SXx. Onwards and upwards

[bazildonbond] 09/2/2021 08:49

Where's Smelly?