Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 16/2/2021 08:43

They can have my shares at 25p today. If potash keeps climbing it might be 30p soon...Otherwise I'm happy to hold for 50p+ (possibly quite a lot of +) when in production...NAI

[the chairman elect] 16/2/2021 08:21

Have always felt that one of the big international players perhaps from the US might find EML a very attractive morsel to scoff!

[cottoner] 16/2/2021 08:19

Worth looking at Intrepid Potash Inc NYSE (IPI) share price graph over the last 6 months and 5 year periods.

SP has been rising steadily over the last 6 months as the Potash price has been increasing and the last year graph shows a lovely bowl where the share price is now coming back to where it was a few years ago.

[kcaco] 16/2/2021 08:11

That’s an interesting and informative post Thanks Cottoner

[cottoner] 16/2/2021 07:59

Intrepid announces US$50 increase to potash price
Published by Pippa Luck, Editorial Assistant
World Fertilizer, Monday, 15 February 2021 12:00

As of 08 February 2021, Intrepid increased its agricultural pricing for potash by US$50/t at all locations and on all new orders. Potash price is now posted at US$140/t above the 2020 summer-fill value. Orders taken at the previous price level are expected to be delivered by the end of April.

“Intrepid continues to benefit from great early season demand for fertilizer as increasing commodity prices, tightening inventory levels, and strong farm economics are quickly leading to the best spring season in years.” said Bob Jornayvaz, Intrepid's Executive Chairman, President, and CEO.

“After 2 years of lackluster application, farmers are eager to replace nutrients and maximise yield in this increasingly strong commodity environment. Last week, we finished booking historic second quarter volumes at the full US$40/t price increase announced in December and are confident moving price higher immediately. We expect to achieve this higher pricing on spot tons in the second quarter.”

[rajawali] 16/2/2021 01:32

The biggest hurdles to a significant re-rate here are the mining license (which can be a drawn out process in Africa) and a clear path to financing the project. The former is ticked off, before schedule. The latter is no doubt in the works.

The closer this gets to production, the more it starts to price as a higher market cap as % NPV (to mirror peers this is multiples of where we are now) and eventually market cap as a multiple of EBITDA once production is near.

This is not an exploration company Smelly and your fixation with dilution either shows no understanding of the market or, more likely, an agenda.

[yasyas1] 15/2/2021 17:57

Agree. There will be a dilution but this could gap up any time. Fomo. Will cont to add on dips

[lendmeafiver] 15/2/2021 16:32

I think it’s day traders selling myself.....

[qsmeily456] 15/2/2021 16:21

That's because they need to raise a 💩load of cash.

Massive dilution coming

[gateside] 15/2/2021 16:13

Supprisingly weak today, especially as miners are so bouyant.

[rajawali] 15/2/2021 08:06

Regardless of the spot price of potash, it seems certain to be on a one way path, given the explosive price action and forward pricing opportunity for major producers imv. Have a look at John Deere. Shares are at an all time high as growers scramble for equipment. Inputs, like farming equipment, are just a second derivative of the underlying gross margin per Ha for broadacre crops.

[lendmeafiver] 12/2/2021 22:20

The predictability of a five pound day trader, markets shut you know....

[qsmeily456] 12/2/2021 21:37

The irony of lendmeafiver 🤣

[lendmeafiver] 12/2/2021 20:11

The feasibility study had a downside market price scenario of US225 a tonne which still generated an average life of mine post-tax free cash flow circa US90m per annum/IRR of nearly 15%. Very robust project.

[westie50] 12/2/2021 19:40

Thanks Stockjockey - You're of course right that a conservative approach is a good way to look at things. Probably like you, i'm hoping 3 years down the road, the price will be that much higher as Hayden recently alluded to in his soy bean quote. I think though even at $250 per tonne, we still make a pretty penny.

Have a good weekend

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 12/2/2021 18:09

Westie, I'm invested here, but my issue is that the latest market data indicates that potash miners are now able to lock in deals on MOP at around US$250/t.

Of course it should rise given the anticipated supply / demand scenario, but I would works the numbers off a base case of $250/t.

[lendmeafiver] 12/2/2021 18:02

And the like a broken clock, £500 “day traders”:

QsmeIly456

[qsmeily456] 12/2/2021 16:53

Fantasy....long way to go.

Funding some way off

And the rampers?

cyberbub

helmet1

lendmeafiver

apfindley

Sell on news....that was the smartest move. Sell make a profit buy more to make more...

[westie50] 12/2/2021 14:30

Garry you're right re local sales.

Cyberbub yes i'll take another look at the FS. I was merely trying to fill in a few gaps in my notes. As a non farmer its been a challenge trying to understand the potash market. This is my bank for 3-5 years time, or before if we're bought out.

[cyberbub] 12/2/2021 13:56

Westie I agree with APF, just look at the latest FS or presentation which has the various MOP price scenarios in it. That was prepared by people with more economic modelling skill than us :-)Remember there's tax to take off as well, although there is a tax holiday agreed initially. But the FS figures show post-tax income for various MOP prices.The bottom line is that it would take a poor fundraising *and* a poor long term MOP price to see a long term share price at or below 40p, IMO. So you're looking at a minimum 5-bagger from here in about 3 years. That might not be enough for some, chasing cryptocurrency hot stocks for a 5-bagger by next week. A handful achieve it, the vast majority don't.Personally I'm happy for a low-risk 5-bagger (possibly a good bit more) in 3 years. That's why I've gone in heavy here, and use smaller funds for other shorter-term investments.You pays your money you takes your choice...NAI

[garryvaughan] 12/2/2021 13:43

And with any luck , we will be selling most of our tonnes on our doorstep with no shipping costs !!

[westie50] 12/2/2021 13:36

No problem APF - sometimes you just stare at figures and need to ask a question at times . Just stops me going mad!!

[apfindley] 12/2/2021 13:17

...but yes your figures sound great.I was talking more generally, not picking at your approach.

[apfindley] 12/2/2021 13:16

I think its better to look at the feasibility study and figures from the company rather than guessing our own figures for a first of its kind mine in this area with what we're told are exceptionally low costs due to the location and proximity to ports and being in the right location for shipping and good road infrastructure too.I'm not sure what your figures are to achieve beyond what hayden has already told us.

[westie50] 12/2/2021 12:58

Gents I'm just trying to research a little more the cost/projected income of the project and try to come up with some ballpark figures.

Looking at the graphs, it appears for mining, transport to port, shipping to Brazil then onward transport comes in around $170 per tonne. So assuming we look at an MOP price per tonne of $360, that would make a rough profit per tonne of $190. Given the annual average production could be 700,000 tonnes of MOP that would work out at $135m PA. That's of course not including any salt or SOP income.

Given those figures are not far off, with 2/3 years payback, we're in for a pretty hefty income thereafter which equates to a nice dividend. That's probably looking 5 years plus into the future.

Do you gents think i'm on the right track? Comments welcome