Easyjet Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 02/2/2017 10:31

Fraz,

I follow FTSE Quarterly relegations/promotions very closely. This can have a big impact on sp's.


You may recall that the EZJ share price BOOMED after it gained entry to this elite status some 4/5 years ago due to institutions being forced to include EZJ in their trackers and sector weightings. It went, roughly speaking, from £8 to £18 in just a year.

We are not talking about the survivability of EasyJet which fundamentally is a good airline but we are talking about the impact of the absolutely dreadful operating environment due to excess capacity, new sector entrants. Brexit and many other external events.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[frazboy] 02/2/2017 10:18

Maybe they will QP. Why don't you find some research that shows the performance of companies that have been relegated from the FTSE-100 over the next 3,12,24 months and post it here, to give your arguments more credence? I think that anyone taking the longer view, who thinks that EZJ will be a low-cost survivor, will maybe see any further short term decline as a buying opportunity. I hold some shares but if the market continues to oversell the shares then I will buy more.

[quepassa] 02/2/2017 10:05

Fraz,

Thank you for your good post which I have voted up.

I know exactly what you are talking about. A fairly corrosive article as I recall. Pointing out, if memory serves correctly, that EasyJet only hedge CURRENCIES between 45-65% of exposure.

Interesting points about trackers but don't you think that the many UK "blue-chip" funds who only invest in FTSE 100 as dictated by internal investment criteria/rules may be forced to liquidate if relegation occurs?

Thanks.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[tlobs2] 02/2/2017 09:57

Oh by the way frazboy even Cantor Fitzgerald see an upside in the share price of +23% on todays price

[frazboy] 02/2/2017 09:57

I think it may well be relegated. What I'm not clear about is what the impact of that will be. There are other trackers. And there are people who price-in in expectation of such an event.

What perhaps shifted the price at the time of the results was the admission of the £35m extra in currency costs (due to the unhedged part of the dollar exposure). If you don't know what I'm referring to then I suggest you do a google search for the FT Lombard column the day after the results.

I agree that sentiment towards the sector is poor.

[quepassa] 02/2/2017 09:43

Fraz,

been hearing that it's all in the price for a long, long, long time.
Normally the chant of technical traders who believe that "it's all priced in".

Don't really follow your comment however because two or four weeks ago, EasyJet was much higher capitalised and not in such danger of relegation.

But instead of being critical of my post, what is your opinion about FTSE relegation propsects?

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[tlobs2] 02/2/2017 09:41

He also ignores the fact that the EasyJet customer base has continued to increase, that they have continued to operate at a profit and that in the most recent communication from the company the key people at the company remain very positive.


They will be sharing out the profits with the shareholders in a few weeks time ;-)


On the other hand you have self proclaimed financial experts claiming to know more about EasyJet than the EasyJet executives and pluck random figures out of the air and write is as fact !

[onjohn] 02/2/2017 09:35

23rd Feb for payment on 17th March.


53.8p DIVIDEND


Come to dadday

[frazboy] 02/2/2017 09:31

It's all in the price QP. Why do you think it's been falling for nearly 2 weeks?

[quepassa] 02/2/2017 09:14

If you strip out the forthcoming 53.8p dividend, based on today's price of 940p, the theoretical x-d price is now a lowly 886p.


Liberum with a Price Target of 825p ( reiterate SELL on 26/1) and Panmure at 820p (retain SELL on 24/1) look within striking distance.

Even the more bullish brokers such as Cantor are losing faith and have just DOWNGRADED from BUY on 24/1 to HOLD on 30/1 and LOWERED their Price Target from 1300p to 1150p.

Equally, the normally ultra-bullish Goldmans have also DOWNGRADED on 27/1 from BUY to NEUTRAL and LOWERED their T.P. from 1160p to 970p.


Not looking very favourable in my view.

According to advfn analytics this morning, EasyJet are today ranked 113th by largest market cap at £3.7billion. If you strip out the pregnant 53.8p divi, my calculations would mean that Easyjet would be reranked about 120th. after going x-d.

This does not bode at all well in my opinion only for EasyJet's prospects of remaining in the FTSE 100 list at the next Quarterly Review of Constituents in March. If EasyJet are relegated from the FTSE 100 in March, this is unlikely to be supportive of its share price in my view.

EasyJet goes x-d on 23rd. Feb.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[gbenson1] 01/2/2017 13:50

Is another bad RNS about to hit? Just waiting for an entry point around £9.20.

[andy pipkin] 01/2/2017 12:00

Cant see it myself. Entrenched downtrend, and my tea leaves, elliot wave expertise, and fundamental analysis see 800p within 2 months.

[reallyrich] 01/2/2017 11:23

Hope so, I bought a load at 950p this morning

[myun] 01/2/2017 11:18

Should go up now

[blueball] 01/2/2017 10:58

Terrible company reputation but the shares are cheap a look.

[frazboy] 01/2/2017 10:07

And... even if EZJ does get kicked out of the FTSE 100 is there compelling data which supports a material downward move to the SP? What has happened to companies which have been previously relegated? Let's not forget that there are other types of tracker

[tlobs2] 01/2/2017 09:43

tintin, some people don't understand that people don't always buy just on price ;-)

[tintin82] 01/2/2017 09:17

And they increased profits by 100%.But that doesn't fit with the story, so let's forget to mention it.

[tintin82] 01/2/2017 09:16

QP. They trimmed guidance by around 5%. Share price is currently down 6%. Hardly a collapse.

[quepassa] 01/2/2017 08:53

Anyone need further evidence of the damaging Price War?

Look at the profitability figures from Wizz today. And the share price collapse of Wizz.

Despite carrying 20% more passengers, profits are down and look pretty poor.

The sector is so desperate to fill seats due to swingeing excess capacity that they cannot make generally much or a margin on those extra passengers.

And it's going to get worse with more jets coming on stream this season.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 01/2/2017 08:43

If you strip out the 53.8p forthcoming divi, the share price would be beneath 900p.

The problem with a theoretical x-d share price at 890p is that chances of expulsion in my opinion only from the FTSE 100 index will be (significantly) increasing, especially if the share price further weakens.

If this were to happen, certain institutions which are solely index-trackers or FTSE 100 investors may become forced sellers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dmf] 31/1/2017 19:51

Re 5079
This issue was raised back in July 16 old news
Carriers will do what is needed, for instance Ryanairhad already started a buyback
Of its stock!

[frazboy] 31/1/2017 18:22

Not a bad salary rise.

Salpara - interesting post but effect on the share price will probably be negligible - in theory it may already be priced in

[tlobs2] 31/1/2017 17:52

Chief Financial Officer leading by example ....


Director/PDMR shareholding

The Company announces that Andrew Findlay, Chief Financial Officer, has entered into an arrangement on 31 January 2017 under which Mr Findlay has requested that on the payroll date of each month (or the next dealing day as relevant) the sum of GBP3,125, less deduction of tax and dealing costs, be applied from his salary to the purchase of ordinary shares at prevailing value.
This amount relates to Andrew's monthly salary increase effective from 1 January 2017. As noted in the Company's 2016 Annual Report, Andrew had asked for his cash salary to remain static and he wishes for the amount of his 2017 salary increase to be applied to the purchase of shares, which he would retain in order to build his shareholding in the Company. The Company's Remuneration Committee is supportive of his decision.

[salpara111] 31/1/2017 16:30

I am not a holder but everyone who is should read the article in yesterdays FT about Easyjet Ryanair et al.
Long and short of it is that for these companies to qualify as "European" their shareholder base needs to be European which could lead to forced selling of these stocks by non EU holders.