Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 21/9/2023 13:01

48.5p offer values DX (fully diluted) at £310.6m. They have £37.6m of cash so values the business at £273m. Forecast for next year is a pre tax profit of around £34m without the benefit of the Tuffnells work. Doesn't look high to me...

[ls24] 21/9/2023 12:31

Price is too low, I believe the benefits of the Tuffnells collapse are being felt sooner than anticipated if volume rumours are correct, this is 60p a share of anybodys money and probably more

[katsy] 21/9/2023 11:04

Why? HIG have come to DX. And the board are happy with this possible offer. So why the market doubt? Do they think it maybe too high

[everton448] 21/9/2023 10:52

The market certainly seems very doubtful it's happening....

[katsy] 21/9/2023 10:43

Do people think the cash offer of 48.5p is not happening despite management in favour of it?

[stemis] 15/9/2023 13:48

It's hard to see how HIG can add value to DX. They have no synergies, no unique management expertise in logistics and DX needs no restructuring. They are interested because they think they can get DX on the cheap, before the benefits of the Tuffnell work is felt and knowing that market in general is under valuing AIM stocks and specifically DX due to it's prior suspension. We'd probably see it back on the market at some point with a higher valuation and more debt (load with £100m in debt and float at 80p in 3 years and they've x 2.5 their money).

Gatemore aren't in DX for long term growth. They put money in at (I think) 10p to support a management restructuring. Job done, they want to move on. Dunn is no longer part of the management team so wants to cash out. Both understandable positions from their points of view. Management get their options paid out and a tasty incentive scheme from HIG. Understandable from their point of view.

As long as HIG stick to 48.5p I think this will go. It would be my biggest profit ever but I'll still be a bit disappointed.

[yasx] 15/9/2023 13:23

The price has not dropped and bid/offer remains the same as yesterday.

Re the shares: I have been hoovering up at around 43p and even took some at around 43.5p yesterday. I suspect the bid is a very likely outcome, given they have previously received proposals and a further expression of interest suggests the bidder is very keen. With the minimum price expected being 45p, and with the bid to be formalised within weeks, at this price the risk of downside is virtually nil. So, shortly I expect either 45p or 48.5p - with a very remote chance of a revised offer beyond that. In the event DD causes the bidder to walk way (most unlikely), they won't fall much below 40p and likely will go higher in due course anyway.

Either way, the shares are easy money at 43/43.5p.

[stemis] 15/9/2023 12:25

Has the price changed? It's seems to have remained pretty much bid offer 43.0 - 43.5 since yesterday. I think the apparent drop is due to how Advfn calculates the opening price in it's graph above.

[mrnumpty] 15/9/2023 12:17

LSE informs us that , so far today , there have been zero DX shares sold , but 254,536 bought ( for a cumulative £ 110,480 ) . The transactions shown as ‘ buys ‘ by LSE appear to be purchases due to the price , and yet the share price is down by 0.25p . Isn’t Aim a mystery ?

[stemis] 14/9/2023 15:57

No, I wasn't disagreeing with you

[everton448] 14/9/2023 15:28

As for enforceability, it is almost certainly not enforceable at the moment given that they do not yet appear to be in receipt of any agreement that is irrevocable

[everton448] 14/9/2023 15:26

Isn't that what I said. Saying you will do something seems to be very similar to saying that you intend to do something. Any distinction would be very nuanced. Likewise, saying that the acceptance would be conditional upon board approval seems to me to be very similar to my paraphrase of provided that the board approves. I do hope nobody thought I was trying to mislead. That certainly wasn't my intention.

[stemis] 14/9/2023 13:56

The share price is currently below 45p let alone 48.5p. You can currently buy in the market at 43.5p. If anything, the market is sceptical that the bid will proceed.

[lombriz] 14/9/2023 13:40

Thank you again, everton. In view of the 45p wording, I think the share price is holding up remarkably well. Almost as if the market is expecting a counter bid.

[stemis] 14/9/2023 13:37

To be fair the disclosure says:-

"The Letters of Intent state that it is the intention of both Gatemore and Lloyd Dunn to provide hard irrevocable undertakings in support of any cash offer of at least 45 pence per DX Share made by H.I.G, subject to a unanimous unqualified recommendation of the DX board on or before 31 October 2023."

Not sure how enforceable that is really...

[everton448] 14/9/2023 13:00

In the DX News tab 12th September H.I.G.European Capital Partners LLP POSSIBLE OFFER FOR DX GROUP PLC

[lombriz] 14/9/2023 12:54

Thank you everton. Interesting. But there's nothing on the HIG website. Is it somewhere else?

[everton448] 14/9/2023 11:23

Refers to the HIG announcement that Lloyd and Gatemore have said they will provide hard irrevocable undertakings that they will accept any cash offer over 45p provided it has the unanimous unqualified recommendation of the DX board

[lombriz] 14/9/2023 10:50

Where exactly is this "45p wording" you talk about?

[markie7] 14/9/2023 10:10

I think it is that 45p wording that is holding this back slightly. in theory the strong trading, plus Tuffnells, will be clear in the DD and will therefore support a higher price than that offered thus far. Moelis will be key here, as they have to provide an opinion to the non execs on what to do. They are a serious firm, so shareholders should take comfort from that as this process unfolds.

[mrnumpty] 14/9/2023 07:51

Should have been “ the difference between 43.5p and 48.5p is ( only ) 11.5% “ .

[mrnumpty] 13/9/2023 22:04

Correction . Should have been “ the upside from 43.5p to HIG’s offer price of 48.5p is only 11.5p “ . Isn’t it so strange that serious investors are now buying DX , without the share price moving up appropriately ?