Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[mrnumpty] 13/9/2023 21:08

Although one always has to be sceptical about the data provided by LSE about share transactions , there is a huge disparity between the volume of DX shares bought today , as reported by LSE ( 659,845 shares ) and the last seven transactions , all apparently ‘ buys ‘ ( all at 43.5 p ) , with these seven purchases , of 250,000 to 500,000 shares , cumulatively amounting to 2,850,000 shares . If this is correct , then some serious investors are buying in to DX , and yet the upside from 42.5p to HIG’s offer price of 48.5p is only 11.5% . Could it be that not only do these major investors think that HIG will carry out its takeover , but that they also think that there could be a counter-offer with a higher price ? Any thoughts ?

[katsy] 13/9/2023 13:43

Where are all the shares coming from? Given the buying today I'm surprised this hasn't moved up more

[solarno lopez] 12/9/2023 15:52

And the irrevocable are soft at this stage so all to go for

[se81] 12/9/2023 12:18

I see that mention of 45p slightly differently- it will be a look how well we’ve done to get the “full” 48.5p…

[stemis] 12/9/2023 09:59

Not only that but they've given them every incentive to try and nudge the price down to 45p. Let's hope the non exec have the balls to stand firm...

[se81] 12/9/2023 09:41

There you go Gatemore & Dunn supporting the offer so you'd imagine this goes through unless there is a counter bid

I'm inclined to wait for 48.5p

[qs99] 12/9/2023 09:40

I'll vote against as well, just to be annoying, that is a complete sell out by DX board if they unanimously recommend 48.5p, pretty shameful really.

DYOR

[this_is_me] 12/9/2023 08:58

I will certainly vote against the offer, assuming that it will go ahead, although that will not make any real difference. On the plus side if all my investments made that level of profit in the timeframe I have had my holding I would be rich by now.

[tanners] 12/9/2023 08:45

Reading that RNS my thoughts are that the takeover is more likely than not to go ahead therefore I'm going to hold, though I'm doubtful that the offer will be increased much, if at all.

[stemis] 12/9/2023 08:44

Before this indicative offer I had 60p in mind as a possible takeout. At the end of the day though it isn't going to be down to us. No doubt management will be talking to major shareholders and the truth is that 4 shareholders hold 55.98%; Gatemore (who are probably looking for an exit), Canaccord (who have been selling), Lloyd Dunn (who is no longer involved as CEO) and Lombard Odier. I doubt management would be 'minded to accept' if they hadn't run it past them. The ability to deliver the company easily was something I always believed would make a takeover relatively straightforward here.

[qs99] 12/9/2023 08:28

Thinking about it, I would accept 55p to be clear. Leave some "in" for the next guy etc.

[qs99] 12/9/2023 08:28

I have bought at all ranges, including low teens after it was re-listed, and on the way up through the 20s Churchharbour, so yes I feel I am entitled to have a view mate!

SteMiS that is exactly the point. Great that PE see value now, they are spot on as the wave up has just started and Tuffnell's deal is a good one IMO, with further upgrades "likely" in my view. DYOR

on that basis, Board and management with Instis and brokers need to force more out of the bid.

CHeers

[stemis] 12/9/2023 08:24

There's clearly a lot of scepticism in the market as to whether the bid will take place. You can currently buy for 42.8p, which would give a profit of 13.3% if it did...

[stemis] 12/9/2023 08:21

I bought my last tranche at 21.65p in November 2021 just after the first announcement of the issue that led to the suspension. However there is a limit to how many I can buy. It's my biggest holding.

At 48.5p it values DX at around 6.4 x FinCapp's (27.2.23) forecast for 2023/24, which has been upgraded, I believe, by Liberum and for which further upgrades are subject to visibility of the Tuffnell's work.

[this_is_me] 11/9/2023 21:12

That would be Me! Well shortly after the suspension was lifted.

[churchharbour] 11/9/2023 20:26

Guys, guys - on 6 May this share was trading at 25p! As you all seem to think 48.5p is a steal - how many were you buying at 25p?

[qs99] 11/9/2023 20:14

I agree, that is the trouble, NEDs don't stand up to these guys enough IMO.....

Let's hope Instis do stand up and demand fair value, allowing PE house to make upside is important, but not all the upside! OR Board seek out a credible other bidder.

"minded to recommend" is just nonsense from Board at 48p, what incentives on the other side are they being offered?

DYOR

[bdbd11] 11/9/2023 18:48

Once again the private shareholder gets stuffed. As we all know, DX is undervalued even before the Tuffnells sites takeover, We will see the company taken private on the cheap, expanded significantly over the next few years in a growth market and then floated again at probably in excess of double the value.I would much rather hold and see increasing dividends and a return of capital once maturity is reached. I'll be voting against unless the buy out price is much higher - which it won't be as private equity will want to make a 9 figure sum in future profit to do the deal.

[qs99] 11/9/2023 17:06

No way Liberium could state the deal was a good one, given their note IMO showing upside on Tuffnells etc not built in.....would have been an upgrade IMO so bid needs to be well over 50p to be credible.

NEDs need to do their job, likewise Instis to say no and push HIG, if bottom fishers per Markie above, to get real.

DYOR

[stemis] 11/9/2023 16:29

I agree it's too cheap but I suspect that, if it goes to HIG it'll go at 48.5p. Management have obviously been negotiating and sound to have got as far as they could. Will be interesting to see if there's any response from Dunn. I'd like to hope a trade buyer might see an opportunity with DX in play but holders often say that to little outcome.

Apparently Liberum have a 50p target with price skewed to the upside. So interesting to see how they'll justify a 48.5p offer...

[markie7] 11/9/2023 16:13

even if it falls through, the idea wont' go away, so the price won't drop by 6p. HIG are bottom fishers. I don't think 48.5p is enough, and HIG will know that - expect to get 10-15% or more. I'd sell at 54-55

[my retirement fund] 11/9/2023 15:50

Seems good odds, 6p upside 6p downside, a genuine offer and a board minded to recommend.

[mgmg1] 11/9/2023 15:45

Hefty volumes going through as well...

What's everyone's strategy now?

[stemis] 11/9/2023 15:44

You can see why HIG has decided to make it's move now. The market has not yet recognised the growth that Tuffnell's collapse has delivered

I've always said a takeover was end game for this, although I expected a trade buyer. 48.5p is poor. I think I'd vote against.

SteMiS - 26 Oct 2022 - 13:55:33 - 2969 of 3490

I've always believed the end game for DX. would be a takeover and certainly Gatemore and, no doubt, Dunn now would be a seller for the right price...

SteMiS - 04 Feb 2022 - 09:27:38 - 2635 of 3491

Ultimately it's financial performance which will determine value here (although the route may be a little volatile). Since new management was appointed I've been of the view the end game will be a takeover....

[markie7] 11/9/2023 15:39

I would expect a fuller update with Oct results