Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 30/6/2023 08:16

So basically the RNS has had no difference on the valuation of the business as of this morning, that is insane IMO! DYOR

[qs99] 29/6/2023 16:26

agreed. Let the sellers sell, I'm chocker block with them....still cheap as chips on EV/EBITDA basis before this RNS and good to see brokers now erring on possible upgrades (doh really?!) so let's get TU out of the way and assess our own views on "valuation" then.G

LA/DYOR

[effortless cool] 29/6/2023 16:17

I added another 50k shares based on today's news. Looks an excellent bet with its main market rival not only taken out but now also contributing to the future growth of DX.

[qs99] 29/6/2023 15:40

Someone wants out. Really odd I agree. But I'm happy to continue to hold.

[swiss paul] 29/6/2023 15:36

and dont forget how bad Royal Mail is as well!

[everton448] 29/6/2023 15:28

Incredible really - news like this and we maybe end flat on the day!

[qs99] 29/6/2023 15:04

I am sure DYOR, net cash will be increasing as well....roll on a decent TU!

[nigelpm] 29/6/2023 14:38

50p would be an absolute minimum. Fair value probably well over 60p now.

[qs99] 29/6/2023 14:05

I agree and have bought more on RNS this am.
Too fundamentally undervalued IMO

[stemis] 29/6/2023 13:29

Inevitable there'll be some selling with the share price up 34% in under a month, even though only on a P/ of 9 for this year, with all the benefit of the Tuffnell's business still to come. Should really be over 50p

[paulisi] 29/6/2023 11:54

Updated broker note would be good.Not worried that they have only picked up half the sites. Expect the majority of the other sites to be in the same area as existing DX sites.

[qs99] 29/6/2023 10:07

Finally getting some momentum. Hopefully a decent TU should provide a boost as well. DYOR.

Looking for a meaningful upgrade and TP from brokers IMO....looking forward to more yield as the year goes by as we head north of 50p hopefully. EV/EBITDA ratios looking attractive.

DYOR!!

[qs99] 29/6/2023 09:52

Good post.

[stemis] 29/6/2023 09:27

Whilst it's interesting to try and map additional turnover to Tuffnell driver's taken on and new clients 'signed up', it's important to view it all from a higher level. There is £170m of turnover up for grabs and DX has acquired the sites that service them (15 out of a total 33, presumably those that fill in it's existing capability), already signed up over 550 customers so far (but there were will be shared customers that will already have contracts with DX) and taken on over 250 Tuffnells drivers that are used to servicing the clients (but will have existing capacity and probably recruiting other drivers) and plan to take on more.

I don't think after that that DX will only capture 15% of Tuffnells turnover, when there are few others with the capability to handle the work.

Even if it's only £40m, with a margin of 15% (since it's incremental and I doubt DX will take on poor margin contracts) which I think is pretty prudent, that should add at least 25% to DX.'s bottom line. As usual the market hasn't really woken up to the implications of this.

[resurrect123] 29/6/2023 09:21

fingers crosssed here

[molatovkid] 29/6/2023 09:21

Thats only 550 right now, probably more will come on board in time

[everton448] 29/6/2023 09:19

Finn Cap say in the morning note that they will review their forecasts alongside the trading statement of July, but the prospect for upgrade has increased

[stevesham] 29/6/2023 08:30

Looking for higher margins from new customers as those with difficult freight have limited options so DX can charge much more

[nigelpm] 29/6/2023 08:26

£20m+ sounds more logical.

[markie7] 29/6/2023 08:24

Over 4000 customers in tuffnells - from the newspapers recently. £177m t/o from tuffnells last accounts. So 550 new clients is about £20m incremental revenue. Probably more as they would presumably aim for the larger clients

[qs99] 29/6/2023 08:18

Why on earth would you sell into that news, ahead of a TU?

50p target "skewed" to upside, maybe waiting for TU and then amalgamating things to provide new note....

[qs99] 29/6/2023 08:17

All depends where your average customer revenue is, but cannot believe they are not bringing in substantially more than £15m revenues with this so drop through should be good no? DYOR etc.

[stemis] 29/6/2023 08:14

In last set of accounts DX turnover was £430m and employed 4,000 employees, so £100k per employee. The 4,000 includes more than just drivers so even on that basis, 250 drivers = £25m, but likely to be more.

[nigelpm] 29/6/2023 08:11

It's 550 immediately - that's not accounting for further business etc..

[everton448] 29/6/2023 08:11

Liberum maintain 50p target because they say they don't currently have enough visibility on what this might mean for the figures. But they do say that that target price is now skewed to the upside.