Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[momentos] 03/3/2023 12:31

Always hard to tell here, the "true" bid / offer spread is hardly visible with the wide official bands. Probably about 30.2 - 30.5 currently.

MMs wiggling for sales or buys? Who knows

[markie7] 01/3/2023 18:48

feels like overhang being gradually cleared out - decent volumes recently

[qs99] 01/3/2023 14:27

Agreed, share options are now a non-issue IMO, that is a massive swing and well dealt with.

It's now about year on year growth, cash gen, yield where possible, and if market doesn't recognise / reflect value, then MBO would do nicely at a quid!

DYOR

[momentos] 01/3/2023 14:23

The stock options ARE largely dealt with, down from potentially 15% dilutive in October to about 3% now. Over 8m has been spent as payments in lieu of those options (covering personal tax liabilities) reducing the realised dilution by half.

The major holders (Gatemore, Hargreave, Dunn, Series - over 50%) are not really in a position to easily reduce by drip fed sales without sending the share price significantly south. They probably need a PE/merger to exit.

Any persistent sellers are probably minor beneficiaries of performance plan options etc, imo / dyor etc

[bdbd11] 01/3/2023 14:12

There appears to be steady stream of PI buyers here, taking advantage of the low price, but matched by blocks of stock from the large sellers wishing to exit. Eventually those sellers will be dealt with, though It will take some time. Once the management have dealt with the stock options and the capex, which again will take some time, I think it is likely they will commence a share buy back program with the excess cash that will be coming in. I can see this doubling from here (at least)over the next 2 years. In the meantime the 5% yield allows for patience.

[qs99] 01/3/2023 09:48

you old cynic haha

back to this share, hopefully it will soon have a low float as well if their IR team can get it together to sell the dream/story!! At least we have hit 31p on the offer and 30p on the bid, let's see if it can move on from here.

Good day to you Momentos!
Cheers
QS99

[momentos] 01/3/2023 08:55

Hmmm, not absolutely sure picking shares with half a good story, a low float and having enough groupies to follow you in and shift the share price significantly is a particular talent, but that's all just imho lol!

[qs99] 01/3/2023 08:50

Indeed, but always easy with hindsight!

Having got in before the suspension, i didn't think it would be suspended for so long over what was obviously not a massive issue. So glad old management have gone, and value can start being attributed to the business by the market. DYOR etc

Personally think CR is a decent "punter" and v. successful tbf to him

Cheers

[qs99] 01/3/2023 08:28

haha Momentos, indeed.

Have been here SINCE the debacle as just looked oversold on a "non-financial" issue, have done v. well thanks, bought the dips and still have a substantial holding as IMO the valuation on an EV/EBITDA basis is wrong DYOR. Now backed by a yield, good cash generation and coming to end of its big capex roll-out/upgrade. Private equity dream IMO!

DYOR and GLA

[momentos] 01/3/2023 02:15

I read back through some history of this thread and of the company, some of you have been here for quite some time!

It's almost enough to make anyone run like hell from this company and the whole delivery sector... Apart from I very much agree that the architects of the spectacular turnaround (Dunn, Series, Gatemore, Hargreave etc) must surely be keen to now crystallise the rewards for their success.

Which makes a merger or private equity sale soon pretty likely.

[stemis] 28/2/2023 10:48

Now that the interims are out of the way, the company has a new Chairman and CEO and a decent story to tell, I hope they are being introduced to new institutional investors by their brokers. If a decent institution can mop up loose holders (which there are bound to be after the suspension et al) then any buying by PI's will move the price upwards rather than just satisfying the sellers.

[momentos] 28/2/2023 10:15

Brexit is great!

[qs99] 27/2/2023 16:07

Other positives IMO:

Target op margin 7.5-10% from current 5%, leaves big upside room as turnover rises.

This is 2nd year of major capex spend, so cash flows in 18 months IMO should improve even more

Significant sums spent on "buying out" dilutive share options, again short-term issues, that should help future cash generation.

DYOR, just need management to "sell the dream" to markets and if not markets then a private equity player or competitor at these levels!!

DYOR

[everton448] 27/2/2023 11:48

Surely we won't finish down on the day...

[momentos] 27/2/2023 10:54

Not sure we are going anywhere but sideways for a while though.... There's a significant bunch of people just come out of closed period who have been lumped large amounts of shares from their options. Including Lloyd Dunn (hopefully sticking around!) Ron Series (ex chair) & a few random others. They might be wanted a little cash :)

I'm glad that the rewards for the turnaround are now effectively all paid out though and no further major dilution etc at the cost of other shareholders remains. The decks are cleared for the future, no more cash drain from the options after this fy either.

[qs99] 27/2/2023 10:16

Just looks the wrong price IMO. Will interrogate results more later…DYOR

[stemis] 27/2/2023 09:55

FinnCap - "We maintain a cautious view on the macro backdrop in H2 and make no changes to our full year PBT. There is upside potential if current trading conditions persist"

We are currently pretty much 2 months into the final 6.

DX - "Trading in the second half of the financial year to date is in line with our expectations, and we have a healthy pipeline of opportunities....

Looking further ahead, we see significant scope to drive the Group's ongoing growth and development...."

[My underlining]

[everton448] 27/2/2023 09:46

Last year, revenue for first half 2022 was 202m and for second half 2022 was 226.2mThis year revenue for first half 2023 was 231.3m and broker expectations for second half 2023 are 241.3m (472.6 full year)That suggests a 6.7% annual increase in turnover in the second half of the year. The second half of the full year to 1 July 2022 saw turnover rise by 13.4% compared with the previous second 6 months (199.4m to 226.2m)DYOR (and check my maths) but seems that the forecasts are factoring in substantial macro economic headwinds and if they don't happen there is plenty of scope for beating the figures

[momentos] 27/2/2023 08:54

H2 2022 EBITDA was 30.9m, so even flat we are at FY of 56.4m. 15% up (like H1) and we are well clear of 60m.

"£2.7 million was expended in the period on Net Settlement of options being exercised. A further £5.5 million has been spent in the second half of the year up to the date of this report."

So effectively 8.2m "buybacks". Outstanding options are down from c 15% to about 3%. So dilution from the turnaround performance plan is nearly done. The last 3% will probably clear for £1m cash 1.5% dilution (9m shares).

[this_is_me] 27/2/2023 08:34

Bought some first thing this morning.

I'm surprised that his retirement fund is still investing in our free country since he thinks that we have been completely trashed by escaping the EU.

[markie7] 27/2/2023 08:30

Even if cash is flat at year end it is still a c£50m ebitda debt free, dividend paying biz for EV of £120m. That EV should be £250-£300m minimum. Equates to share price of between 60-70p. The current share price is simply miles off. The brokers need to step up now and get a couple of institutions in to underpin some sort of a floor. The dividend will help a lot as a lot of AIM funds have dividend payment as a screening requirement

[bdbd11] 27/2/2023 08:24

Stunning how undervalued this remains. I was expecting a jump at open to closer to 40p. Topped up at 30. Now underpinned by a divi, happy to hold for the longer term. Eventually the market with catch up.