Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 16/7/2024 19:57

Re rating we all expected in motion and with a large out of the money set of shorts that may need to buy back it's the perfect combination ?

[justiceforthemany] 16/7/2024 19:51

Surging in the States.
In a fair and regulated FTSE shorts would get burnt at 0800 tomorrow.

[bountyhunter] 16/7/2024 19:22

Up around 5% now in New York since 14:30 BST, an impressive rise.

[bountyhunter] 16/7/2024 18:36

With the yield at over 7% that would sound very impressive if we didn't know where it had been in the past. However the previous sky high yield was signifying an expected cut which we have had leaving a more realistically sustainable dividend going forwards. Now we just need a few more of those shorters to reduce/close their shorts, they can't be doing particularly well with the price progressively rising.

[yupawiese2010] 16/7/2024 18:24

Rusty talking to Directors Talk.

[bluemango] 16/7/2024 16:20

#2256 I see where you're coming from, but I still think it could be open to interpretation, i.e. 'fixed' could be in terms of 'reliable' or 'minimum expected'; I still don't see this necessarily as ruling out upwards movement in the dividend for 3 years, but instead just them trying to manage expectations.

I always read this as 'this is the minimum you should see for the next three years, because it's sustainable', in the context that the previous dividend clearly wasn't. And that they had the option to increase it if circumstances allowed it.

[aleman] 16/7/2024 16:02

UK volume since July 1st looks to be about 2.8m and US is about 3.5m, only including a couple of hours for today. So it looks like US is 30%+ higher volume than UK in July so far.

[gary1966] 16/7/2024 15:57

Excellent UT to cap off a good day.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/7/2024 15:46

Shorts scrabbling to cover... :o)

[drk1] 16/7/2024 15:42

Anyone for a cup and handle (amidst a short attack to boot!)? ;-)

[gary1966] 16/7/2024 15:41

Bluemango,

You missed the word FIXED in the quote. Sustainable says it is up for review in three years time by which time it may no longer be sustainable, or as I and everyone else hopes is more than sustainable and can be increased.

mondex,

I know all that but I was expecting there to be a fair amount of cash before the dividend cut, let alone afterwards, to finance the replacement of production from cashflow.

bountyhunter,

You have a much better average than me, well done.

[gary1966] 16/7/2024 15:32

Long may it continue!!🤞

[bountyhunter] 16/7/2024 15:30

Wow, over $16 now in New York, I'm nearly back in the blue! ..and that's ignoring all the significant dividend payments I have received to date. :-)

[johnhemming] 16/7/2024 15:04

The part completed wells need to wait for USD4 gas price. The company has plenty of liquidity and can buy new wells in part from new equity to the sellers and in part from debt. No sense completing those wells today.

[this_is_me] 16/7/2024 14:51

This is definitely looking like a share price breakout. It is the first time for 18 months that it has been above the 200 day moving average and it is leaving the recent trading range behind.

[aleman] 16/7/2024 14:49

The company acquired part-completed wells with the previous acquisition and talked about completing and infill when the price was right. I'm guessing the acquisition of drilling capacity, even if only modest, could lead to new drilling where there is suitable distribution infrastructure, which could reduce overall decline rates modestly and increase the sustainablility of cashflows at the margin. It seems odd that someone would seem to want to rule this out when commercial sense suggests it will happen if and when prices rise enough to justify the commitment. It was not talked about previously but seems to be on the agenda now?


Closed at 1050p at end of H1. Now 1230p, helped by big US volume. That's +17% in next to no time. (Short squeeze?) I'm wondering what Americans investors will make of the big derivatves swings in H1 but a quick look sees spot and futures gas prices are about the same going in as coming out. We could actually have some results where derivatives could be broadly neutral? For once we might get an idea of the underlying picture. But that might depend on any profits or losses from trading derivatives.

[mondex] 16/7/2024 13:32

Gary,

Read the Oakbloke:

hxxps://substack.com/home/post/p-146478211

It is important to remember that the nature of oil & gas requires reserves replacement just to stand still, let alone grow the business. DEC drills very few wells so they need to acquire production for growth. This will not change. They will continue to buy producing properties every year to offset decline &, hopefully, increase production & revenue. This requires debt. As long as DEC manages this correctly it is a good business plan.

[bluemango] 16/7/2024 11:54

Exactly.

Sustainable implies minimum they can afford. So it's under their discretion to increase if they think the business will support it.

[gary1966] 16/7/2024 11:51

This is what was said:

This fixed quarterly dividend payment will be sustainable for at least three years.

It will be interesting to see if the $200m debt repayment that was promised along side the dividend cut will materialise.

[bluemango] 16/7/2024 11:33

I can't remember the exact wording, but I think they implied the new dividend would have a floor/minimum for next three years, not that it couldn't go up.

[gary1966] 16/7/2024 11:29

No change to the dividend for 3 years, the company said this when the divi was rebased.

Shame that the rebasing doesn't appear to be freeing up cash for acquisitions. This time dilution and yet more debt.

[oneillshaun] 16/7/2024 10:47

Love this lol

[renewed1] 16/7/2024 10:02

Yes if Rusty wants to crucify the shorts ..just raise the divi 10%.

[aleman] 16/7/2024 07:15

Have we got a date for the interims? Should be in about 2 weeks.

[tsmith2] 15/7/2024 23:37

Arrowstreet about to get burnt? hope so