Distil Share Discussion Threads

[berny3] 13/6/2018 13:22

Pete - good to hear from you. I agree on the cash position and I do not see any reason why the company would become change from it's prudent financial approach in the past to anything different.

I do not know what the right purchase price is. It is very dependent on your risk appetite, diversification of financial assets and time horizon.

GL

[petersinthemarket] 13/6/2018 12:50

Berny - thanks for all the patiently explained calcs you put on here - always interesting to see what other respected posters think.

I'm not hugely interested in fundamental analysis myself. Although a bit rough and ready as a principle I tend to believe that all the information I need is automatically built into the chart by the market and so I mainly trade momentum.

DIS is my sole exception to my momentum following rule because I have genuine respect for the BoD and the way they run the ship and I strongly believe that this company will eventually provide me with a very big return if I stay patient. Not easy for me.

The one accounts item I do have an interest in is the generated cash. Cash offers a company greater freedom of action and I'm glad to see that is now coming right at DIS. If controlled tightly as it it has been so far the increasing level of new cash could substantially strengthen the company.

Maybe the most debatable accounting point in the coming financial year will be how much of the new cash they budget for marketing. Having built a useful market presence for the brands I suppose more cash, perhaps a lot more cash, might now have to go into marketing, but I hope they don't go too daft with that as it could mute next years finals.

As you probably recall, I am a confirmed LTH here and I will continue to pick up more stock each time the share price offers a brief bargain price. In the past I have been a serious buyer at around the 2p mark and below, but I guess those days are behind us now. The current average share price probably represents fair value at this stage but the wide spread is a nuisance.

Looking at the chart movement I suspect a bargain buy point is on its way. If you have a view I would be interested to know what you think of current share pricing.
Ramble over!
GL, pete

[suneday] 13/6/2018 11:07

Historically, not strictly true. But I take your point for the future.

[janekane] 13/6/2018 05:37

I agree with your post this is a company for investors not traders

[rumlover] 13/6/2018 04:40

Distil Plc is not suitable for short term traders/investors, try your luck with mining/gold (yellow/black) digging stocks. GLA.

[dietcoke197] 13/6/2018 01:27

However, by that time, I'd expect at least one brand to have been sold at which point 10p wouldn't even cover the cash balance

[iceman82] 12/6/2018 20:20

i would be very happy with 4p in 12 months, dont think US deal would move this share to 10 p alone

[janekane] 12/6/2018 19:42

Yes I think 10p is possible the next 12 months should prove the companies worth
The forecasts are very conservative
Get a deal in the USA and if the distributor delivers we will fly
I will be topping up on any dips below 2p

[petersinthemarket] 12/6/2018 18:48

10p!!!!??? - yes, highly likely - several years from now - don't hold your breath.

[iceman82] 12/6/2018 17:47

does anybody think that we reach 10 p and if so then when?

[mudis] 11/6/2018 17:38

Seems like a logical next step. DG fully bought out the brands, redesigned them and turned it into profitable company. Most revenue growth was due to new listings over the years. Redleg is in every major supermarket now, so it is time to invest money in brand marketing and expand in to other countries.
"We will also invest in talent to resource market expansion opportunities and to manage the growing number of export markets".
Company is at the point where DG need extra hands, so for such a small company every new employee affects bottom line. I still think profits will be in 170k-200k range, just to show that it is making progress.

[dietcoke197] 11/6/2018 17:02

They are assuming an extra 140K of promo/admin with no incremental sales benefit in 2019.

Seems a bit harsh:(

[berny3] 11/6/2018 16:18

DC - this is the same research note I think. I have read it and did not know the Redleg brand had got listing in France.

Still not sure about their assumptions.

[dante17] 11/6/2018 16:14

Johnny Depp for Redleg (pirate connection), Kim Kardashian for Blavod (she likes all things black), and Bear Grylls for Blackwoods (he lives in the Highlands apparently so there's the Scotland connection)...

[tonys8] 11/6/2018 15:53

Agree DC and I believe people are hanging back from buying until Milton have stopped selling. At that point we'll see a significant rise in the share price

[tommyjnewton] 11/6/2018 15:47

Re Dante's post. Who would be an ideal celebrity to endorse Redleg? Any ideas anybody?

[dietcoke197] 11/6/2018 15:42

Because Miton are still selling?

[iceman82] 11/6/2018 15:38

why we are 6 % down?

[dietcoke197] 11/6/2018 15:35

You have to sign up but it's free

[dietcoke197] 11/6/2018 15:35

You have to sign up but it's free

[berny3] 11/6/2018 12:14

Not satisfied that is good analysis.

Historically advertising cost as a ratio against Sales has been constant. In fact it has reduced (slightly).

From accounts Advertising cost/Sales FY

2016 23.95%
2017 23.39%
2018 23.09%

[berny3] 11/6/2018 11:59

DC can you post a link to research

[dietcoke197] 11/6/2018 11:56

One thing of note in the Panmure research note is that they only project 160K for 2019FY.


This is explained as being due to a step change in marketing spend planned for this year as well as a change to start some "Above the line" advertising of red leg.

They believe that sales growth will lag that spend.

Question I have is whether Don has ever indicated this in the public domain before?