De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 26/11/2010 14:46

Still no proper resolution so down it goes!

While it would have seemed silly to suggest £4 about a month ago, I now feel there is a real possibility that it could drop back to that level.

[zipstuck] 26/11/2010 08:26

i think they will make enough this year to cover the div which should support this level

[hvs] 25/11/2010 10:16

Sub £ 4.00 for sure.

[frazboy] 25/11/2010 09:58

"The Board has decided not to proceed with the previously announced share buyback at this time." - from the interim statement

Although I can't find any other reference to it in market announcements

Volatile today!

[frazboy] 24/11/2010 15:24

And another thing... cancelling the share buyback programme isn't consistent with 'management confidence'. not to do so, would have been insane in the circumstances, but it's obviously being done because they also know of the downside risk, and because they may need the cash to pay the dividend

[frazboy] 24/11/2010 10:21

Does anybody know anything about Mr Tim Cobbold (see this morning's press announcement). Initially seemed to go down well with the markets...

Thanks Kristini2, have done so (after my research). I think the downside here is clear, but will keep a tightish stop on the short - can't see it retracing to Monday's close anytime soon, even with a rush of optimism over a new CEO

[kristini2] 24/11/2010 10:16

Fraz
I guess you could open a small short position and increase it on any bounce in the share price to cover yourself.

Could not resist it-opened a new short position based upon the price action today and 10p fall--my market timing is rubbish so we'll see how it goes

[frazboy] 24/11/2010 09:44

kristini2, what are your thoughts if there is no bounce? still worth a short?

i'm definitely on the pessimistic side with these shares. if the directors were really 'confident' they would be filling their boots. maybe they will, we shall see

[kristini2] 24/11/2010 08:57

on the negative side;

1-fraud office will take forever, civil sevants always do! The enquiry is likely to take take 12 months + leaving uncertainty

2-divi will be under threat

3-potential loss of largest customer

all lead to popential downside for the stock with large losses under scenario 1/2- I would rather be a seller than a buyer

[topvest] 23/11/2010 22:04

Long term this is a bargain down here. Sounds like they have resolved the problem and just resolving the financial implications - this is bound to be uncertain until resolved. I see Caledonia Investments have bought a sizeable stake (1% or so disclosed in their interims). For those taking a 2/3 year view this doesn't look like a company breaker to me. It is less damaging than BP's disaster. They also retained the interim which is hardly the sign of a company going down the toilet! Those shorting could get caught out by 1. A high profile CEO being appointed or 2. Any resolution on financial implications. Risky playing the down or up game at the moment.

[wcjan26] 23/11/2010 19:21

kristini. could bounce of course, though my medium term target is still 350-400p as i thought right back in july when this broke

[wcjan26] 23/11/2010 19:19

Banknote print volumes in the first half were significantly below the high levels of the prior two years but the Board is confident that this is unrelated to the paper production issues

they have got to be kidding, right?

[kristini2] 23/11/2010 19:17

yep, they have left loads of uncertainty after today's results.

The share price looks to have been well supported today and could bounce. i will be looking to reopen in to that bounce first thing tommorrow.

[wcjan26] 23/11/2010 19:15

kristini. well done on short. i have not closed though moved trailing stop down. surely another shoe still to drop here?

[kristini2] 23/11/2010 17:29

cut your losses, buy back at £5 next year, why wait and take the risk. Having closed my short today i am hoping to reopen on any bounce

[red ninja] 23/11/2010 17:29

Mmm that curve is very steep downward, maybe not a bounce tomorrow ?

[killieboy] 23/11/2010 17:03

If the co does not get taken appart in the press tomorrow I will eat my new passport!!!

[hvs] 23/11/2010 15:37

Management has lost all control of this business. No doubt they will get bigger BONUSES.

I see sub £ 4.00 coming as there will be a thumping big loss.

[killieboy] 23/11/2010 15:13

Cut our losses or wait for a rebound - Hmmmmm

[smurfy2001] 23/11/2010 12:36

Hope this helps investors here. From the FT.

---------------------------

NH
what's moving?
BE
De La Rue
BE
Moving downwards.
De La Rue Plc (DLAR:LSE): Last: 572.50, down 50.5 (-8.11%), High: 605.00, Low: 541.00, Volume: 1.98m
NH
yes
NH
£35m hit for those dodgy banknotes
NH
according to today's statement
NH
which really hasn't drawn a line under things
BE
Yeah - reading the statement .....
BE
It does seem that the issue with the duff banknotes has not been isolated.
BE
Business seems to be down, very sharply
NH
and we don't know what the impact going forward will be
NH
apparently this problem was with Indian banknotes
NH
although this has never been confirmed by the company
BE
But the wider drop-off in demand seems to be for no other reason than reputational damage.
BE
I certainly can't see any other explanation.
NH
brand damaged by this
NH
probably for the next decade
BE
Credibility is everything with currency.
BE
So what's been the response? Downgrades, I assume.
NH
yeah
NH
although no one really has a clue
NH
what the downgrades should be
NH
Here's Panmure
NH
A number of issues to address here, most of which remain unresolved on this
announcement. While there remain a number of positives in the statement,
we remain cautious given the question marks over resolution of paper orders,
the outlook for banknote volumes in H2, and the declining visibility of the
business. Outside of currency, progress also looks disappointing in Security
Products, and while we place our forecasts under review ahead of the
analysts' meeting, we believe the outlook remains negative
NH
and Merrill
NH
A mixed picture from the results this morning 1) numbers look OK (EBIT is
comparable adjusted for exceptional items), 2) On a positive note, DLAR is
encouraged by the levels of recent orders and enquires in both the banknote print
and the affected paper production business, but 3) banknote print volumes are
down 30% at 1H and should be down by 20% for the FY and no line has been
drawn in the sand "there remains uncertainty as to the ultimate outcome of this
issue including its financial impact impact on the current and subsequent years".
NH
DLAR has stated that it is encouraged by the support of its customers and the
level of orders and enquires in recent weeks. Remember the key bear point for
DLAR is that it loses its largest customer and there would be contagion into other
customers.
On the negative side banknote printing volumes are -30% in 1H and will be -20%
for the FY. The statement stresses that this is unrelated to the issues affecting its
paper production business
NH
Also no line has been drawn in the sand "there remains uncertainty as to the
ultimate outcome of this issue including the its financial impact impact on the
current and subsequent years" leaving a large amount of uncertainty on the table.
The outlook, not very useful at LT growth of the currency business 2-3% - the
issue is from which level and there is no indication over paper or banknote
volumes next year.
This statement is unlikely to flush out new buyers, with bulls pointing to the
statement about new orders and bears the uncertainty and the reduction in
banknote volumes being a result of this
BE
And, as noted on the right, De La Rue's IR department really has done itself no favours here.
NH
indeed
NH
quite a mess
NH
and made even worse
NH
because De La Rue
NH
seem to believe they are an arm of the Bank of England
NH
and don't have to communicate with the market
NH
still that's their call

[salpara111] 23/11/2010 10:32

the share price is all over the place this morning, cant make head nor tail of it.

I guess that most analysts are also having difficulty trying to determine forecasts

[enami] 23/11/2010 09:50

De La Rue are the world's largest.

Some others

[dawntrader] 23/11/2010 09:42

Anybody know who is the company's major competition. Just that the company value as near on halved in recent times, would just like to know who they now have to compete with in this line of business.

[felix99] 23/11/2010 09:31

I thought perhaps it would just loiter at £6 as seemed to be buyers and in effect we are no further forward than yesterday really.

I closed out at £6 sadly as busy at work as thought had taken all the easy money but just saw it collapse just under 560. I think it will tread water here really.

They have some orders coming in so its not like the whole world has disowned them but long term I will reshort any rally again as think the indian business will either be lost if they don;t pay big compo or they will keep but at a big discount.

They got plenty of cash for time being but guess next fall will be when divi gets cut