De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[rochdae] 15/5/2007 09:46

I was hoping for a bit more weakness - never mind.

[rochdae] 14/5/2007 12:21

Thanks scotch broth.

[scotch broth] 14/5/2007 12:20

Results out 22/5/07.
They are bound to be good as per trading update so it is really a question of future outlook.

[rochdae] 14/5/2007 12:05

When are results out?

[prankster2] 08/5/2007 13:22

Last year's final ex dividend was on the 5th of july, the market maker seems to be having a laugh with this one, he doesn't mark it up when the ftse goes up but doesn't seem to waste any time marking it down when the market has a down day.

The facts are pretty simple from january the 1st 07 to february the 7th 07, (prior to the latest upgrades) this stock was trading between 640-660, there were three upgrades on the 12-feb (102m), 15-feb (102m) and 23-feb (96+m) a consensus change in the last three months of +10.6m, the prior three months brokers consensus forecasts were 87.8m, it is now 98.4m (+ 12.07%) if we take the mid trading price of 640-660 say 650 and add only the upgrades (with no re-rating) 12.07% on that we get a price of 728.45 so that should be a minimum price of 728 going solely on the upgrades with no re-rating!

On the 7th of feb the ftse was approx on 6368, De La Rue stock price was approx 658, the ftse at 6560 + 3%, De La Rue has gained nothing whilst the ftse went up, the current price of 712 still doesn't take into account the upgrades, the ftse gain or any re-rating premiums, if we take what should be the very minimum consensus upgrade price of 728.5 (no re-rating) and add the ftse 3%, we have a minimum price of 750!

From the homework that I've done it should easily beat the 98.4m latest consensus forecasts, should get a premium re-rating because of the upgrades and it's still lagging the ftse.

Unless I've missed something, seems cheap to me.

[rochdae] 08/5/2007 09:42

Time for a top-up 708.

[chatterbox] 01/5/2007 14:01

does anyone know the exdividend date.

[prankster2] 21/4/2007 15:49

With the markets being buoyant and results only a few weeks away, I have now got my full allocation on these, now it's just a matter of sitting back and watching the cash roll in.

[prankster2] 05/3/2007 14:07

Looks like the dow may have bottomed out at 12,000 if it has, the ftse still needs to play catch up, it's approx 80-100 points down on the dow. The ftse will catch up as long as the dow shows stability here and then starts climbing again IMHO.

[rochdae] 02/3/2007 13:34

Tempted in at these levels. Opened a sbet long 651.

[prankster2] 01/3/2007 15:24

Tillman you can keep talking don't worry your words are not knocking the stock down, it's just a market hurricane we've had in the last few days.

Just bought some more as our market is underpriced to the Dow by approx 80-90 points, if the Dow doesn't tank to just below 12,000 our market should pick up.

[tillman] 01/3/2007 13:43

guys, as my last post was made just as it got to the high point of the day, I'lll do you a favour and shut up...that way it might carry on up!

[tillman] 01/3/2007 10:28

wow, there she goes!

[pomp circumstance] 28/2/2007 19:50

went in on these today!

the big rise recently was fully justified, so the market sell off has given those of us who were waiting to buy but missed the rise a second chance!!!

[sklogw] 28/2/2007 11:50

at 660 it seems to have filled the gap

[prankster2] 28/2/2007 11:01

Tillman,

The market has floored almost everything, and with leveraged products it's probably wise to have a stop loss in place, I've bought the shares outright so I'm happy to hold and buy on any weakness, I've bought some more below the 670.

If markets stabilise from around this point, I'd expect DE La Rue to start moving again. I have a bottom price for it at 640, I don't expect it to reach that, if it does it should rebound in a sharpish manner, the markets are important though, it's worth keeping a good eye on them as they can even if only temporarily drag down the good the bad and the ugly.

[tillman] 28/2/2007 09:16

well,

little did I realise that my words of a few days ago would be so relevant today and I am glad I wasn't so greedy as to forsake the 0.3% charge for the guaranteed stop! I have lost money but not as much as if that stop wasn't guaranteed.


Tillman - 21 Feb'07 - 16:24 - 17 of 21 edit


I bought quite a lot of these today via a cfd with a guaranteed s/loss...the latter just in case the market falls apart as opposed to any lack of confidence in this stock itself.

[prankster2] 27/2/2007 13:33

I'm not adding yet Tillman as my two stakes are pitched about right for now, 30p apart (698, 728) will buy more if it drops to around the 670 or on the other side of the coin, if markets stabilise and DE La Rue makes another dramatic leg up, as that will show strength and buyers piling in, the stock is strong in my opinion but it's all about timing the buys now.

[tillman] 27/2/2007 09:57

just added some more
risk reward ratio now even better
yes...I know, I did break my rule of adding to a losing position but at 701.5p it was too good an opportunity to miss. Have a guaranteed stop loss in case the markets collapse!

prankster
is now the time that you were patiently waiting for to add?
i have to say, it took me by surprise but then everything seems to be shot to pieces this morning with the ftse off 100 so far

[prankster2] 24/2/2007 13:59

Tillman,

Don't kick yourself too hard, I missed the 660 mark, they made the announcement of significantly beating the forecast one day too soon for my liking, nevertheless as I did some analysis on the company, I was happy with what I saw and immediately bought an initial stake at 698 then another at 728.

Seems to have settled for now between the 740 to 720 mark, I'm waiting patiently for another opportunity to buy some more.

I reckon De La Rue's profits will be well over 100 million, it will most probably get upgrades in the following weeks, months and good positive write up's.

I wouldn't think that the market would have to go up too much for De La Rue to outperform, but the market will need to be reasonably steady, no sudden crashes slashing a thousand points off the market over night, otherwise it's potential price target will come down, this obviously applies to all stocks across the market but the stronger company's will swim better than the weaker one's.

Do your own research and good luck.

[tillman] 22/2/2007 11:16

she's starting to fly

[tillman] 21/2/2007 16:24

I bought quite a lot of these today via a cfd with a guaranteed s/loss...the latter just in case the market falls apart as opposed to any lack of confidence in this stock itself.

Kicked myself for not taking a position a few days back at the 700p level.

To Prangster....interesting ref. your price target of 10 quid. It will need a rising/steady market in my opinion...I don't have any major concerns ref. a significant market correction..not at the moment anyhow, so 10 quid by the Autumn or Dec may be a possibility.

[prankster2] 15/2/2007 15:48

Bought some more today as I checked what my price target is, still cheap, price target approx 1000 IMHO.