Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[psychicdoc] 14/10/2002 10:53

is the nas open today

[blockbuy] 14/10/2002 08:58

morning all....top stuff arpy. looks like there's buying interest today. In US terms this looks like $2.10 beiong broken now.

[oaklandsway] 14/10/2002 08:20

Breaking through $2.10, on Friday, was a good sign especially when hit $2.15.
Now we hope Danky will try to break through $2.10 & stay one night. Yes, personally I took $2.10 as the price to watch.

[arpy_eye_indexed] 14/10/2002 07:55

no probs guys.

Lets if I can get out of ISYS today and come join you for the short term.

[serious punter] 14/10/2002 07:52

Arpy

Thanx also from me - very informative :0)

[arpy_eye_indexed] 13/10/2002 23:13

Yes phook thats right.

But your point highlights the medium term mate. I'm talking the very short - short term. But, yes what you say is correct.

When Red&Blue are gliding up together the price tends to be an upward trend (market sentiment contradicts this theory most times).

When red&blue are gliding down the price seems to be in a downward trend.

I know what you are saying.

But, what I say is still correct in that (look at today for example)

1)we both know that the RED line has turned back up (i.e the trend reversal took place on thurs/fri)

2) we know that they are to meet for a "first time" - and we know that the first meeting/crossing brings back ANOTHER reversal. In our case today we know that the cross should take place by tuesday. The price should be and increase trend until they cross on Tuesday (approx).

3) we then know that there will be a very short term fall. (i'm hoping for selfish reasons its a big one)

4) Then as you are aware they will start gliding in harmony to a time where they meet again......and the trend will be UP! imho. And now we come to what you say.....the second meeting point. And yes, you are correct from there the trend will be back down. Maybe back to a new support level.


Again please bear in mind, that this is all statistical and theoretical. Hope this helps.

[phook inell] 13/10/2002 22:59

by the way arpy, when you say the red line crossing the blue line then it reverses the upward trend.. you really mean when it crosses the blue line the second time (the first time being near the trough).

[phook inell] 13/10/2002 22:55

hey arpy, thanks a million. very interesting read

[arpy_eye_indexed] 13/10/2002 22:44

PHOOK INELL

This maybe of use.

[arpy_eye_indexed] 13/10/2002 22:43

You may have to read this twice....

Watch the red line/blue line on the MACD oscilator chart.

You look at it and tell me, what happens to the price when the red line TWISTS (or in other words, starts turning back up when it hits its own trough) to meet walk upto the blue line. Lets take early June as our example. When the red line started turning around, what do u notice? There is a reverse in price trend! (not necessarily a price increase). however, in the JUNE case, it was simply a reverse in trend and that meant the price had to increase!

You want more?

Look at JULY. Red line hits a trough.....starts turning around...and what happens? Price reverses its trend. This reverse in price trend just so happens to be an upward one.

okay now notice how in SEPT the red line trough wasn't all that LOW. hence the reverse in trend wasn't all that high.

SO - what happened last week? The red line started turning back up on its way to meet the blue line....and what happened to the price? we saw a reverse in price trend. I.e the price was falling falling falling and hey when the RED line did its twist, then the price reversed (in this case went up).

So how can this be good news then? LOOK WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE RED LINE FINALLY MEETS THE BLUE LINE AND CROSSES.

That is where the PRICE TREND REVERSAL finally ends. In all MONTH cases mentioned above, when the RED LINE finally crossed the blue line....the price ONCE AGAIN reversed its trends and carried on doing what it was doing....in all cases, carried on moving down.

SO, whats happening now? The price will carry on increasing (ie reversal in trend) until, you guessed it, the RED LINE FINALLY CROSSES THE BLUE LINE. Then, alas the fun is over (at least for the short term) and the price MAY come back to its support level. So, i intend on buying at an intraday low.

So, i'd love to get in! I really would, its all subject to me getting out elsewhere!

[phook inell] 13/10/2002 22:20

wow arpy, thanks a lot for your response. detailed and very informative. many thanks.

ps where would be a good start to understand TA ? eg book, website etc

[arpy_eye_indexed] 13/10/2002 21:59

BB

Just a quick comment mate. They are automated criteria charts. They'll give you only a rough idea and sometimes make things very complicated.

PHOOK INELL

you are correct in the assumptions you make in your questions. I'll show you very quickly.


When you say resistance (actually support) is around the 32-34p mark this is correct if you mean what I think you mean (i.e support). Obviously if you look back to feb,then early march, the price bounced off 33p or so. This created a support level (maybe you have it confused with resistance aka a ceiling) But yes, look at it now in July - twice it hit 33p or so. This further upholds that resistance prevails at this price. Then once again right at the end of september..... So uptil now - we can say that support levels are 32-34p.

Moving on....

We have recently broken this support level. early OCT. ouch.... but looking at the indicies as a whole - i shouldn't worry to much about that. imho. It was a good time to get in imho.

So what else can we look at?

Volume Vs Price.

It would be bearish if the price kept decresing and the volume increasing. Its common sense why - coz, volume investers push the prise up and there will be a point where things will collapse. Hence the bearish signal.

Thats not happening with DNK is it? In fact, its pleasing imho to see that the volume is decreasing along with the price. In this circumstance we could potentially have a "blow off". Sudden increase in volume at which stage, there will come a sudden burst in price. So, i look forward to that.

What else?

Most times the RSI tends to peak over 70.... Over the last 6 months, look what has happened to the price every time the RSI hits its trough. Its fantastic to look at the chart and see that on average, the last three times the RSI came below 30 (to hit its trough) the price increased by a whopping 55% (on average)
Check it for yourself! In end of FEB - RSI came below 30, hit its trough. Now, look what would have happened if I bought then? Looks like a 94% increase in like 3 weeks!!!!!! Want more? Look at the first RSI trough below 30 in MAY. If i bought then...I would have made a whopping 27% on a T10. You want more?? Look at July's RSI trough below 30. If I bought then i probably would have made about 45% on a T10 !!!

This theory only fails us in JUNE end, where the RSI came below 30 and it would have been a VERY SHORT term detriment. Who cares, the price shot up 4 weeks later anyway. + it wasn't much of a trough anyway was it? The bigger the trough then the bigger the rise. Here's the cherry mate - The trough in SEPT is bigger than that of the 94% rise in feb end.


Lets move on to MA DIFFERENCE. Like RSI i use 9,12 Day variables. They give me a rough guess as to best time to buy for a 2 month hold + peak sell within 2 month.

All I want you to do here is look at the troughs. Look at the first MA DIFF trough in Feb. Match it with price = quick profit. Look at the trough in March... if I'd bought then, i would be laughing 2 months later. Look at the trough in middle of april? Laughing again mate. Look at the trough in MAY - what do you know? i'm laughing again. And we go on and on. Its hard to predict when a trough turns, but, you can obviously see what happens to the price over the short term when we get a trough. And hey presto, what do you know? we are on a DOUBLE trough....and boy is it turning around!


Personally, i'm expecting a blow off next week. And i expect there to be very high liquidity volume increase!

Do i regret not buying at 29p when I looked earlier this month? YES. Am I going to buy on Monday....? Damn right (subject to me getting out of something else)


imho - i think we're looking at 45-50p in next two months. ALL subject to sentiment/markets which takes precedent over charts.

Good luck!

[phook inell] 13/10/2002 20:35

blockbuy

any idea when the H+S formation started and finished ?

[blockbuy] 13/10/2002 19:57

there could be speculative buying throughout the week now that a resistance level has been broken and with the up and comming agm(22nd), rsi rising from it's lowest vaule for ages.


dyor etc....



Watch candidate (11 Oct 2002) [Auto] Help
Has risen 259% since the bottom on 13 Sep 2001 at 9.25. Is within a falling trend and continued decline within the current trend is indicated. On reactions back, there is resistance against the ceiling of the trend channel. Positive volume balance strengthens, however, the stock in the short term.
Support and resistance: The stock has marginally broken up through the resistance at 32.00 p. An established break predicts a further rise.
High risk with an average difference between the lowest and the highest price of the month of 55%.




long term looks real good imo.

[phook inell] 13/10/2002 10:08

sp

how have you derived the resistance and support figures. cheers

[serious punter] 12/10/2002 22:50

Phook

I'm no chartist but I believe from the above chart, support is c 32p & resistance 38/40p. We held very well on Friday IMHO, and a push by a few pence north on Monday could signal a strong run up.

Stateside the RSI is 15 - greatly oversold, therefore a good reason to suspect sudden movements north.

[phook inell] 12/10/2002 14:57

any chartists out there.



questions :

1. Danka needs to break out of the 36p region to break the down trend ?

2. its considered that 32p is the resistance.... from the chart how is that derived ?

3. it was discussed that Danka completed a h+s formation recently. When did the h+s formation actually start and when did it complete.

thanks in advance.

[phook inell] 12/10/2002 13:41

cinoib

Danka is still a british company.

[serious punter] 12/10/2002 00:51

cool

Depends on the Septics :0)

[blockbuy] 12/10/2002 00:43

right, off for a round. (or maybe just 9)....thank technology for gprs and advfn's mobile......

if it gets hairy I'll be back, however looking at some of the US premarket stuff we should be ok.

GE for eg is 22.65/23.4 ; closed yesterday 22.6

10/11 07:16
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise on Profit Optimism; General Electric Climbs
By Sam Fleming

Frankfurt, Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose amid optimism for a rebound in corporate profits. General Electric Co., the biggest maker of power-plant turbines, advanced after saying third-quarter profit rose 25 percent.

International Business Machines Corp. gained after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. raised its recommendation on the world's largest seller of computers and related services.

December futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 10 to 812.50 as of 1:15 p.m. Frankfurt time. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 86 to 7591, and Nasdaq-100 Index futures added 9.50 to 858.50.

``For a major company like GE to come out in line with expectations is encouraging,'' said Stuart Fraser, a fund manager at Brewin Dolphin Holdings, which oversees about 15 billion pounds ($23.4 billion). ``It's a huge company and a bellwether'' for the economy.

General Electric, which makes up 3 percent of the S&P 500, rose 35 cents to $22.95 in Instinet trading. Net income was $4.1 billion, or 41 cents a share, as expected by analysts polled by Thomson First Call. General Electric also reiterated a forecast for earnings of $1.65 a share this year.

The company, whose businesses also include medical equipment, credit cards and jet engines, has plunged 44 percent this year as investors scaled back expectations for profits.

IBM advanced $1.92, or 3.3 percent, $59.50, according to Instinet. The stock was raised to ``overweight'' from ``equal- weight'' by Lehman Brothers. No further details were immediately available.

`Subdued'

U.S. retail sales probably fell 1.2 percent in September, the most in 10 months, economists said before a government report scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Washington time.

``Any rally in the U.S. will be subdued'' because of muted expectations for economic growth, said Michael Hughes, chief investment officer at Baring Asset Management, which oversees more than 30 billion pounds.

U.S. benchmark indexes are poised for their first weekly gain in seven weeks, with the Dow up 0.1 percent and the S&P 500 up 0.4 percent. Stocks rallied yesterday after companies such as Aetna Inc., Lexmark International Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. said third- quarter profits topped analysts' estimates.

At Wednesday's close, the S&P 500 was down 49 percent from its high in March 2000.

Juniper Networks Inc. dropped 28 cents, or 5.4 percent, to $4.90 in Germany. The second-largest maker of equipment to direct Web traffic said sales this quarter will be unchanged from $152 million in the third quarter. The average forecast from analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for fourth-quarter revenue of $155.8 million.

Confidence

Echelon Corp. rose 62 cents to $10.26 in Germany. The maker of networking software said it had a profit of 13 cents a share in the third quarter, more than the average estimate of 9 cents from five analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call.

Also today, the University of Michigan will probably say its national index of consumer optimism dropped to 85.5 in October, the lowest in 11 months, a Bloomberg News survey showed. That report is scheduled for 9:45 a.m.

The Labor Department is likely to report at 8:30 a.m. that the producer price index increased 0.2 percent in September after showing no change in August.

[cool hand kev] 12/10/2002 00:43

So is this still good value after a 40% rise in two days
(i think it touched 23 yesterday)
and can it go back to 40 - 50 trading range ?

[blockbuy] 12/10/2002 00:35

danky price at 1.94/2.01
Thats inline with the uk imo.

Oaks, is that how you read it?

[blockbuy] 12/10/2002 00:26

phook, dollar gains...

now 1.5617

[phook inell] 12/10/2002 00:17

sp

i used to have level 2 but i found i paid too much credance to it and it tended to make me conclude unfounded decisions. I rather base my buying / selling on fundamentals. As I said i am not a day trader by instinct, only occasionaly trade when there is a compelling case.