Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[oaklandsway] 09/10/2002 16:45

Sometimes news from dow jones newswire not accurate, such as penalty to new credit facility was only less than $2.8m but newswire reported as $4m. So, I don't think the bond payment will be postponed again.

[forfaiter] 09/10/2002 16:36

It was in the dow jones newswire that they were hoping to refinance the credit facility and the bonds due in 2004 by sept 30...2002.....news to me as well....

[oaklandsway] 09/10/2002 16:32

Never read the news that Danka won't pay the bonds due in 2004! It was part of refinancing over a year ago & should be paid in due date.

[forfaiter] 09/10/2002 16:28

So pray tell....why did they try and restructure the bonds due in 2004...?

[oaklandsway] 09/10/2002 16:23

Actually bond that due in 2004 can be bought back between $500 to $800 per unit of $1000, so if Danka want to sort it now they will afford to do it.

CTM's bonds are massive comparing available cash and bondholders can't convince if CTM can survive until 2005-2009. CTM's asset worth much less than the bond.

Danka's bond in total worth less than $120m, plus convertible than can be converted to ordinary ADR. $120m is nothing comparing Danka's asset so why need to cash it now if worth more on due date.

[forfaiter] 09/10/2002 16:17

The petition is for the bonds due between 2005 and 2009.......so they are looking ahead....a few more weak quarters and the bondholders in danky may start doing the same....plus Fidelity has a billion pounds in cash and NO bank debt....

[oaklandsway] 09/10/2002 16:13

ya but CTM's bonds are huge comparing the cash available. Danka's bond due in 2004 is less than $50m and available cash at the moment is $37m+ so shouldn't be a problem. You should worry about LGD's debt?

Looking at the trading, the bid at $1.66 is over 10K shares so buyers here feel happy at the moment.

[forfaiter] 09/10/2002 16:07

Interesting move by the bondholders in CTM.....

[psychicdoc] 09/10/2002 15:14

this is the most unpredictable stock and appears to be moving upwards on the nas but strangely mms here have not marked it up as yet

[lex1000] 09/10/2002 13:35

Guess from yahoo that you have day traded and are now out,or R U?
Looking a tad negative over the pond.


Re: looking forward to 10/9,ftse/danka
by: pgevans34
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Sell 10/09/02 04:32 am
Msg: 38041 of 38049

They don´t have to warn they have already flagged this quarter as being the weakest....the question is...will it put Danky back into negative earnings after the exceptional items are stripped out...?

IMHO the market will hit this hard if the company uses asset sales to present positive earnings....

Patience and sentiment is shifting against this stock....Lang has had plenty of time to stabilise the revenue base and deliver consistent earnings growth......

A return to negative earnings combined with the failure to secure NEW finance terms, which were considered a formality by the House Broker, could see the stock drift back to under a dollar.....

Remember this stock traded under a dollar for over 12 months....even though it was producing operating profits....IMHO



Posted as a reply to: Msg 38029 by gulfofmexicotrader

[lex1000] 09/10/2002 11:38

forfaiter,hello..hello..hello know that you're there! Know future not assured..... What do ya reckon short term:-

(i)Break through 28p to test 32p resistance and then down again?

(ii)R U in or out?

[lex1000] 09/10/2002 11:18

forfaiter,would you kindly reply to post 9176 to clear up your mixed signals?

My feelings are as of yesterday p.m.(rose from $1.40 to high of $1.71)that dnk/danky good for a short term bounce with better trading opportunities in the US.R U still of the same opinion or not?

[lex1000] 09/10/2002 11:00

forfaiter,

you cheeky fellow you,are you giving out mixed signals to confuse the punters?Yesterday you say buy for bounce if you believe....and on yahoo that you are buying.....and today doubts on companies future & share price.Does this mean that you have day traded bought and selling for a quick profit or R U teasing?

[rlockyer] 09/10/2002 10:45

from a tech point of view this has to gap up (see graph above) in my opinion, as it is a natural process. I have taken advantage of this today and yesterday.

[forfaiter] 09/10/2002 10:06

IMHO...the new Lang business plan is a very risky venture when IT spend is under such pressure. Also I cannot see the logic of introducing a service that offers to replace every 100 machines with ten through increased efficiency via software packages.......

The bread and butter for DNK/IKN are the service contracts which account for 60 % of revenues on margins of 42%....if you sell less machines.....not only do you lose the sales commission ..more importantly you also lose the INCOME generated after the sale...from parts...servicing...etc....

If this is the only way they can remain competitive.......then no wonder no new banks were willing to come onboard....IMHO

[forfaiter] 09/10/2002 09:48

How times change.....investtech have stated support at 9.6p and resistence at 32p.......is the restructuring failing ?.....negative earnings combined with no new refi could put this stock back into the wilderness....imho

[oaklandsway] 09/10/2002 09:21

My comment on AGT, worth to watch the price movement especially next Tuesday to see whether this is an undervalue stock or just another gaming stock?


I checked the balance sheet again & again to find out where the cash of £12m, available at the end of last fiscal year as reported in the trading update, is from. The company had cash of £0.178m only at the end of first half and the debtors of £10.8m. The company should spend more money for few acquisitions, paying wages of additional staff, and write-off. I am sure the balance of debtor should be reduced to a level of not less than £5m. That means will only contribute about £5m to the total available cash.

Where is exactly the cash increase of about £11.8m then? IMHO, the company should report another profit in the second half although might not be as much as in the first half of £4m (before tax) or retained net profit of £3.6m. If the company can really score net profit in the second half then we should expect a net profit of more than £5m for the whole fiscal year or more than 5.37p prior dilution.

Now, some of us are worried about the future outlook as no new contracts are reported yet but some of us would also be optimistic because the balance sheet can still be supported by projected royalties from some games that will be released at current fiscal year especially HP2.

Above all, with PE ratio of 10 and stronger balance sheet with NAV of over 22p per share I think AGT still looks pretty cheap if they can really score net profit of 5p+ per share. Next Tuesday will be interesting to read the new balance sheet.

Good Luck.

[psychicdoc] 09/10/2002 00:51

ff what do you see as an entry point, must say you called it spot on

[phook inell] 08/10/2002 21:35

cheers psych. My concern is the long term, the short term girations dont worry me much except for the chance to buy more.

blockbuy, yes.. certainly beats c.$1.47 which was prevelant some time ago.

[psychicdoc] 08/10/2002 21:23

phook
great and a brave call on your part if everything goes according to plan you will see £1.40 if not more in 12mths time,in the short term though again today sells far outweighing buys on the nas and i dont feel confident that the rise will be sustained,imho,long term present price i am sure will look cheap,still waiting and watching.

[blockbuy] 08/10/2002 21:20

Phook, an extra bonus, the dollar is strengthening too. up 1.2 cents today alone. (1.5546)

[blockbuy] 08/10/2002 21:17

hey guys, anyone fancy getting me off this NAS/DOW rollercoaster...I'm begining to feel sick

;-)

[phook inell] 08/10/2002 21:14

forfaiter.. cheers. the NAV is negative at the moment isnt it with the debt taken into account ? so thats a none starter... especially to take into account when deriving the valuation.


blockbuy, thats the brokers note and yes they are estimating that price. Would be more than happy to see half that price.

[blockbuy] 08/10/2002 21:11

Phook, I think when some did some working sometime ago they calculated 140p (i think...pls don't quote me)

I think the info is way back on this thread. Try Just after last results (Aug)

BB

[phook inell] 08/10/2002 21:04

forfaiter

if one buys now. what price do you envisage in 18 months time IF Danka recovery plan goes according to plan.