Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[tokyogirl] 04/8/2002 15:02

MATT1231..YOU HAVE CONVINCED ME TO BUY DNK.....

[forfaiter] 04/8/2002 13:40

A buy and hold approach for a stock that is technically still in a downtrend is risky at the best of times.Even more so when there are fears that the US may be heading for a double dip recession and a possible war with Iraq....

What happens if DNK drops another 20-30m of revenues in the next quarter which is historically its weakest ?..the revenue base has fallen off a cliff since Q3 last year with no sign of stabilising....they dipped into their cash reserves in order to meet their financial obligations in Q1 which shows the need to refinace the existing facility sooner rather than later.

Sure they have done well to cut costs and to return to profitability, but don't kid yourself that this is a guaranteed meal ticket from this level, this is still one risky play especially as the US seems to have lost interest in this share and the market in general.....

Let the trend be your friend............and forget those funnymentals...they have cost you losers a fortune...LOL

[sigora] 04/8/2002 13:12

Matt well said,

[chestnuts] 04/8/2002 11:44

Oaks some good posts and very informative, thank you again,
ff you also come out with some good posts but with a fifferent tone,
one thing i put to any one who invests in shares and not trades where else in the next 12 months are you going to at least double your money / besides RON.
I will be keeping mine thats for sure and as Matt put it this might even be 4 bagger, and this week i actually think the institutes will start to buy heavily.
good luck to every one

[banj] 04/8/2002 11:39

Great post Matt

[forfaiter] 04/8/2002 08:58

Oakyhead.....Oooooh feel that anger and pain......don't like being wrong, do ya big fella ?.................

Why don't you spend some of your hard earned....and buy yourself a sense of HUMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUR.......before you make a complete DONKEY of yourself........LOL

[oaklandsway] 04/8/2002 03:19

Danky may get back down if selling pressure is high enough (mainly from shorters though) and the market turns very red. The selling pressure from profit takers won't be high enough because not many people or volume last week when Danky made a little run from low $2 to $2.74 a day before earnings.

However, we had discussed this morning that lots of good news for long term so the potential to bounce back also very high especially when institutions decide to top up their position at under $3 because Danka gets cheaper when the company capable, to be more stable, to reduce debt and increase profit margin while the revenue keeps declining as anticipated.

Keep trading and investing but no need to "work harder". LOL.

[oaklandsway] 04/8/2002 03:06

FUNNY FANS SHOULD HAVE MADE £3400 BETTER OFF IF HE SOLD A WEEK LATER. OH DEAR, HE MUST WORK HARDER SOON TO GET BACK THAT POTENTIAL PROFIT. Oh dear he gave £3400 profit to MMs or his smart followers who were more optimistic that DNK could bounce back to 50p+.

His way to work harder is " wait and bash and wait and bash and wait and bash and buy then hype and wait and hype and wait and sell for 3p profit per share"

He would be a clown by hyping first before shorting it. Oh dear.

[miata] 04/8/2002 00:12

Much has been made of the differences between the US accounts and the UK accounts. My message is don't worry about it - its only the US accounts that matter (as over 88% of the shares are held as $ ADRs).

However just to give you a flavour of the differences in accounting principles used between the UK and the US consider this extract from one of the employee share schemes:

Accounting treatment

The Purchase Plan will qualify as a non-compensatory plan for the purposes of United States generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and, therefore, there should be no charge to Danka's earnings expressed in accordance with U.S. GAAP as a result of the issue of new shares under the Purchase Plan at a discount to fair market value.

Both the issue of new shares and the issue of shares acquired in the market to participants under the Purchase Plan at a discount to fair market value will be charged to Danka's profit and loss account prepared in accordance with United Kingdom GAAP. The amount of the charge in respect of new shares issued will be equal to the amount of the discount to fair market value on the commencement date of the relevant offering period. The amount of the charge in respect of shares acquired in the market will be equal to the difference between the cost of those shares and their fair market value less the discount on the commencement date of the relevant offering period to participating employees (if the cost of the shares is in excess of the fair market value less the discount, income will be recorded to the extent of the difference).

[psychicdoc] 03/8/2002 22:26

ff so rational who is your psychiatrist, lol.
ps no pun intended

[result well-acceptit] 03/8/2002 21:11

i missed the boat result six days earlier than expectit... from here on we'll see profit on every result... 3p eps is very well-acceptit... will buy manday mornin...

[tokyogirl] 03/8/2002 13:13

Thanks Smoketrader for the info..Very much appreciated..I'm facinated by the technical analysis..
Here is a book that I've found very helpful for the fundamentals---THE ARMCHAIR INVESTOR( A DO-IT-YOURSELF GUIDE FOR AMATEUR INVESTORS) by BERNICE COHEN who is one of the most successful private investors...

[blockbuy] 03/8/2002 12:48

fair comment there ff, how would you rate this though as a whole package (results wise) compared to the last Q's (Q4 and Yr on Yr)

BB

ps break of down trend at 52/53?can you elaborate pls.


pps, chance are will not see your reply until later.....hic.

[blockbuy] 03/8/2002 12:46

yeah baby!!!!!!

usual watering holes, usual traders there, couldn't believe it they were telling me about the results. I stood back in amazement.

If it wasn't for the lunchtime announcement, more would have got in earlier. As it stands they are looking to get in on any dip early doors monday.

the toads seemed ok with the sub $3 close in that they may be able to get in at 50/51p


hic!

ps, no yanks in the pub.


nice.

sleep time i hope, cost centre 1 still has cold/cough...cost centre 2 has cutest voice but carries nasty cough and no appetite...poor mite.

do i hear any of it............nope....snore

[forfaiter] 03/8/2002 12:45

Not great results with a staggering 14% decline in revenues which is greater than BG outlined in their report...

An EPS of just 2c will make it hard to justify the present share price in the US....

Sold out today and will wait for a break of the downtrend at 52/53p....

[forfaiter] 03/8/2002 12:45

Not great results with a staggering 14% decline in revenues which is greater than BG outlined in their report...

An EPS of just 2c will make it hard to justify the present share price in the US....

Sold out today and will wait for a break of the downtrend at 52/53p....

[superpete] 03/8/2002 11:02

forfaiter and oaklandsway,thanks for your posts guys (keep them coming);and for respectively confirming that (i)there is plenty of good news and (ii) no worries for long term investors.cheers.pete:)

[lex1000] 03/8/2002 10:57

Taken from yahoo "Retiring Debt / Top Priority"

by: bullrallystocks (42/M/™ ®)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/03/02 01:31 am
Msg: 34524 of 34526

This was First Quarter Results:

Pay off ALL Credit Cards, Don't Throw money away!!! Danka is paying down Debt FAST!!!

At this rate Danka could be Debt Free in 5 quarters...
FYI: No Need to Refinance, loan is secured until 2006....Easy Street just around the corner!!!
Remember the other 4 million payed to keep current lender.

Gross margins 38.6%
Revenue $347.1 million

About 12% of the profits were used to retire Debt.

04,000,000.oo payed to secure financing
16,000,000.oo payed conv. notes
29,500,000.oo payed Debt
---------------
49,000,000.oo Total

49 / 62 =

With-out Agressive Debt Paydown 45 Million comes out to .79 cents per share in One Quarter.

Imagine your House being Payed Off in about 5 quarters.

In just over > 1

Shareholder Equity Increased 50% from last year.

All Key figures headed the right direction!!!

Excellent LONG Term Investment.

Example:
P/E @ 10
EPS @ $2.00
= $20.00 per share

LOOKS DO-ABLE to me!!!BRS

"We retired the remaining $16.0 million of 6.75% convertible subordinated notes in the first quarter and we also paid approximately $29.5 million of our long-term bank debt, resulting in significantly improved debt ratios." Total debt was reduced by 15.2% in the first quarter to $258.1 million.
Retiring Debt / Top Priority
by: bullrallystocks (42/M/™ ®)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/03/02 01:31 am
Msg: 34524 of 34526

This was First Quarter Results:

Pay off ALL Credit Cards, Don't Throw money away!!! Danka is paying down Debt FAST!!!

At this rate Danka could be Debt Free in 5 quarters...
FYI: No Need to Refinance, loan is secured until 2006....Easy Street just around the corner!!!
Remember the other 4 million payed to keep current lender.

Gross margins 38.6%
Revenue $347.1 million

About 12% of the profits were used to retire Debt.

04,000,000.oo payed to secure financing
16,000,000.oo payed conv. notes
29,500,000.oo payed Debt
---------------
49,000,000.oo Total

49 / 62 =

With-out Agressive Debt Paydown 45 Million comes out to .79 cents per share in One Quarter.

Imagine your House being Payed Off in about 5 quarters.

In just over > 1

Shareholder Equity Increased 50% from last year.

All Key figures headed the right direction!!!

Excellent LONG Term Investment.

Example:
P/E @ 10
EPS @ $2.00
= $20.00 per share

LOOKS DO-ABLE to me!!!BRS

"We retired the remaining $16.0 million of 6.75% convertible subordinated notes in the first quarter and we also paid approximately $29.5 million of our long-term bank debt, resulting in significantly improved debt ratios." Total debt was reduced by 15.2% in the first quarter to $258.1 million.

[forfaiter] 03/8/2002 10:55

I agree plenty of good news for the long termers..

[phook inell] 03/8/2002 10:44

looking 12 months out, Danka may well clear its debt to zero. All the interest it pay now will go to the bottom line. This decrease in interest alone would add about $30M per year toward net income wich would equate to about $.50 per share (appx 10p).

[oaklandsway] 03/8/2002 10:44

From traders perspective, I will wait & see how the market in US will react on Monday. Danky is moving sideway. No strong reason for shorters to attack on Monday yet. But, if they intend to attack after every earnings release then I would love to see it as soon as possible because attacking at higher price could hurt more serious investors who could pay over $3. I want long players to pay under $3 if shorters can give them some more chances.

From investors perspective, lots of good news in Q1. I said many times here that as long as Danka can maintain EBITDA at around $30 million per Q then the company will be in the right pace for profitability. Q1 still gave $30 million EBITDA, net income was over $5 million or only $1.8 million difference comparing GISX and surprisingly the book value increase to $1.2-ish per share (up 50%). Danka also still on target to cut the debt up to $125 million by end of fiscal year. Capex of $8+ was also not bad. lots of other good news really. Once again, I wont be too worry about revenue as long as the EBITDA is maintained at around $30 million.

So, enjoy trading (using traders perspective) & enjoy investing (should not worry about long term although not happy with the overall market which may need 6-9 months to repair the psyco & invite fresh money).