Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[inthetin] 09/9/2024 12:06

Call me old fashioned, but this feels like we're in cart before horse territory.

You'd have thought that the way it works is that news comes out then the buying starts, not the buying starts, then the news comes out. Tut-tut.

[rivaldo] 09/9/2024 11:20

I've bought some of these on the dip. Having watched for many years, it seems that CYAN are at last on the cusp of a stable and profitable business with the potential for fast and global growth.

The huge recent 6.5m module order means per Zeus that forecast revenues to March '25, which were previously 80% secured, are now fully underpinned. Their forecast of £34.5m revenues and 0.6p EPS to March '25 makes the current share price look very good value - even a small miss on EPS wouldn't affect this view unduly.

Above all, CYAN's financial position has been enhanced by (1) the quantum of the order itself and (2) the favourable payment/receivable terms for the order with initial receipts ahead of related semicinductor orders/payments. So CYAN shouldn't have to dilute at all or by much - I'd expect them to be able to arrange external non-dilutive financing relatively easily now if necessary .

[derek ten bag] 09/9/2024 10:30

If, as you suspect ITT, many of today's trades are indeed buys then at some point that tiny bit of blue will have to become a big bit of blue. Hopefully a very, very big bit of blue. I find that shade of navy they use on here very comforting. Almost tempts me to dip another toe in the water (if I didn't already have both feet already in there, way above the ankles). Fingers crossed for some very positive news very soon, ideally this week.

[inthetin] 09/9/2024 09:38

Hi DTB
I agree that they are buys not sells.
Glad to see a tiny bit of blue, but if news pops out later today/this week, I will be asking the AIM Reg Team to take a peek at those transactions.
GL
ITT

[derek ten bag] 09/9/2024 09:05

News leaking? ITT suggested some of the Friday trades at 7.52p were buys, so that would imply that some of today's trades might also be buys. Nice to see a bit of blue on the board at last.

[derek ten bag] 06/9/2024 16:47

Hi ITT. It was just delightfully enigmatic. Got the pulse racing. As for me? My knowledge of what's going on is so infinitesimal that not even the world's most powerful electron microscope could detect it. That's why I hang on every word you and the others offer on here. Let's hope your instincts are correct. There is so much positive news out there for the company that has come out in the last couple of months that I suspect you may not be too far out in your thoughts. But who knows. Certainly not me. Anyway, have a good weekend. Weather up here in the far north is beautiful today. And pretty warm too. Fingers crossed for some decent news very soon.

[inthetin] 06/9/2024 16:08

Hi DTB

I don't know anything that isn't out there somewhere. I'll bat that back to you. Do you know something that you'd like to share with me?

My comment on the other BB is just the gambler in me. It feels so sh*te here at the moment - a bit like it did in May'20. I had a punt back then (when most were running for the hills), which worked out quite well.

The 100% comment was also aimed to help those who aren't too clever on the maths front.

Have a fun weekend.

GL

ITT

[derek ten bag] 06/9/2024 15:32

Hi ITT,

Just read your latest post on the other site, 'just under an hour and a quarter to go...'. Is the next sentence a prediction? Do you know something the rest of us don't. You can tell us, as your closest friends.

[inthetin] 04/9/2024 11:54

Whatever is afoot, we're all locked-in anyway, unless you're happy to sell in £380 (5K shares) tranches.

[inthetin] 04/9/2024 10:22

This time last week, we picked up an order that we would only have dreamt about not so long ago.

Since then, the share price has dropped a further 4%.

I'd love to know how many shares our major shareholders are actually holding today (i.e. not what's showing as being held per the Cyan website).

[dumper1] 04/9/2024 09:57

Prob both ;)

[derek ten bag] 04/9/2024 07:58

Thanks Dumper. Let's hope it's worth the wait. I have noticed that the same six jobs in India and the UK, listed in the careers section, haven't changed in a while. Difficulty getting the right staff, or just very slow to update the website?

[dumper1] 04/9/2024 05:37

I don’t think so Dtb,the share price tells its own story, it’s very tempting to load up whilst we are in this holding pattern but until the brakes are off I think everyone is just keeping their powder dry,imo

[derek ten bag] 02/9/2024 15:13

Could these all be buys today? Just been quoted 7.88p for a dummy buy for 50k.

[derek ten bag] 01/9/2024 13:04

Yes, agreed. That was very illuminating. I have never quite understood the corporate relationship between CyanConnode plc and CCIndia Pvt, (and now Digismart, the name of which has always puzzled me). Your explanation clarifies things in terms of how 'taking a stake' might work out. I can't help feeling that we must be close to either another large order and/or something on the corporate level with CCI. Let's hope so. And given what was said in the Q&A and its addendum and what has been reported from the AGM, I am hopeful that amt's fund-raise suspicions might not be required. Fingers crossed. Some really positive news this week would work well for me. GLA.

[tightfist] 01/9/2024 07:15

Hi MB, thanks for that description of a likely business cascade structure.. See #8563, where I have postulated another lower layer, whereby Digismart could take a minority stake in multiple SPV JV's, which are funded by the other party, an Infrastructure player. That could largely overcome the funding angst expressed by amt - otherwise the dilution would become unbearable for the BoD, tetvslonevthevPI's!

[amt] 01/9/2024 05:21

I suspect they will raise about 5m at say 6p so about 30% dilution.
After that I don't see why they shouldn't make 10m profit in 2026 and gave a valuation of 150m.
So upside of say 5 times current share price and downside 25%

[amt] 30/8/2024 16:22

Seems hugely undervalued. I have a significant holding already but won't invest more because of the likelihood of a fund raise, presumably with AIM in its current state at a big discount

[gleach23] 30/8/2024 14:39

Just to underline the current apparent goings on, one can currently buy 50k @ 7.9p and sell 50k for 7.912p.

[multibagger] 30/8/2024 10:48

Header narrative updated....

[multibagger] 30/8/2024 10:48

Hi DTB:)

It is not complicated. CyanConnode India(CCI) is a Private Limited Company and therefore their shares are not listed on any stock exchange. CCUK is on the AIM market.

CCI can issue more shares, sell the shares and do whatever they are allowed to do (as per Indian Corporate Law) and not in contravention of anything that CC UK would have put in place to safeguard the interests of the UK parent company. There would be schemes of delegation, reporting, permission and budgetary controls in place for governance purposes as they are a 100% wholly owned subsidiary. All major decision making will still rest with the CYAN BoD.

It is a bit like our UK devolved Govt governance structure with regards to Scotland, Wales etc.

If anyone buys a stake in CCI, it is likely they should/would get a stake in CCI's AMISP vehicle Digismart Networks by default - however there could be legal provisions written in to ring fence Digismart Networks and separate it from the CCI stake. It could be done at the time of drafting a partial sale as well. M&A lawyers make a living from these kind of "carve outs" and other bespoke arrangements.

[derek ten bag] 30/8/2024 09:44

Couple of interesting finds on the other site with regard to two large awards, one to Intellismart, the other to Genus, over the past few months. Notable that they were both in the same ball park as this week's LOA for us. That being the case, not surely too much of a stretch to suggest that another similar one could be heading our way. Let's hope so. It would be hard to justify a share price of 8p on an order book of around 20m. And that's without the possibility of offers for stakes in CCI. On which subject, given that CCI is a subsidiary of CC and our shares are in CC and not CCI, how does a company actually acquire a 'stake' in CCI? What form does that take?

[multibagger] 30/8/2024 06:53

Good morning all :)

Apologies SBP for mixing your post with that of tightfist's ! I agree with TF that AMISPs may be looking to start the RDSS projects with Cellular (for speed of implementation and to hit the 5% roll out target and get the financial incentive) and then incorporate more RF comms to overall hit the SLA performance figures - a bit of gaming that always goes on in such scenarios. I know/believe that we currently have 48% of the RF comms market share in India.

I think that we have been able to protect our margins to a better degree than expected by dangling the carrot of volumes to our component, silicon and CMEs suppliers. I am told that we should be back to circa 38% margins on our hardware and 90+% on our software - so this offers an excellent blended gross margin IMHO.

I agree with SBP on "the justification of valuation" hypothesis to validate a higher price than mere share price would justify - my thinking on those lines were posted on 05.08.2024 as #8430 and #8432 on this BB.

All in all, I am positive that our partial/majority stake sale in the Indian Cyanconnode will be a great return for us shareholders - in terms of working capital fund, market cap and hence benefit to the share price (if and when that happens). Given the growth phase of our Company I can't see it being returned to share holders at this point and it needs to be re-invested to grow us further.

Interesting times as always !

Good luck all :)

[pillow] 30/8/2024 06:52

Highly unusual set of circumstances here now, surely something has to give.

[tightfist] 29/8/2024 21:46

I like your thinking, strengthening the CC business case to get a IS JV deal over the line would make convoluted sense!. Another angle is potentially commencing a project roll-out with an initial rapid deployment of Cellular (thus compromising SLA) to hit the initial 5%/7 months RDSS criterion, then continuing with RF infrastructure is another ruse. The CC CNIC card could help with progression here..My pricing assumption is ~20% softer than MB's, but it's the unit GM that really counts - what volume deals are being struck with suppliers?.Lots to consider, tightfist