Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[cousinit] 29/8/2024 21:07

SBP - it does feel like a game of chess is being played out here, so that could be quite plausible.

MB has a much better handle on the Indian SM rollout, but it must be getting to a point where a number of orders need to be placed to meet ultimate deadlines and there is probably enough real world experience now in terms of cost and SLA delivery. It's not clear to me if chipping initial capital costs at the expense of meeting the SLA might make any economic sense, although you'd hope the SLA framework had been designed effectively.

JC may well be trying to hold on long enough to secure orders from projects now in train to reach a palatable valuation for CC India.

[stupidboypike] 29/8/2024 19:50

Sorry mb, that was me who thought you were talking profit not revenue, thanks for clarifying. One possibility is that intellismart are happy to strengthen cyans hand so that a deal that is mutually agreeable can be struck. For example, if cyan are saying 40m for a 51% stake, intellismart may be prepared to pay that but need the business case to stack up. Strengthening the cyan order book could make that happen. Just one possibility.

Best regards
SBP

[multibagger] 29/8/2024 18:54

Hi tightfist,

Possibly some crossed wires - my reference to $130 million over 10 years was about revenues from the 6.5m contract and not the profit ! Pricing at about $20 per node that has been mentioned - appreciate that this is indicative and volume discounts would have come into play.

I also hear that on the back of yesterday's RNS our market share of the RDSS communication contracts given to subcontractors by AMISPs is estimated to be about 30% by volume. Cellular is our main competitor. We still have about 200 million smart meters contracts to go after I reckon and already have 9.9 million backlog !

Taking into the other types of contracts (largely legacy contracts) our smart meter communications market share is about 26% overall across the landscape in India. Very impressive by any measure.

Very pleased with the rapid progress - my money/gut feeling is that the 6.5m contract has come from Intellismart. But on the other hand, why would they give us a big contract and effectively strengthen our negotiating hand when it comes to taking a stake in CyanConnode India (as per recent news) ?

Any thoughts anyone ?

[daddy warbucks] 29/8/2024 16:13

Thanks DTB. You are correct and I will remain holding until the picture becomes much clearer.

Hope you, your family and all holders also have a good weekend.

[derek ten bag] 29/8/2024 15:49

Hi SBP,
What a good analysis. Even on your more modest numbers the picture has more positives than negatives (for me at least). Let's face it, even the full deployment of the 6.6m order book was suggesting a trading profit for FY25, so with a pretty amazing doubling of that figure we should be doing very well in the not-too-distant future. And remember, the Thailand contract is poised enter its 'Go-Live' phase. I wouldn't be surprised to get another large order very soon, given that these awards do have to be commenced within a quite tight time frame. As for a takeover, I get the sense that the action, whatever it is, is focussed on CCIndia and I can't help feeling that more than one company might be keen to get on board. These are big players with deep pockets and we, by all accounts, have a premium product. Just my humble opinion of course and probably complete nonsense, but we shall see. Interesting times. Let's hope it works to our significant advantage. As for you DW, forecast looks good for the weekend, so get out and enjoy it. What will be will be. GLA

[daddy warbucks] 29/8/2024 15:22

I am dreading a Friday afternoon Rns.
Normally a time to bury bad news.

I am keeping my fingers crossed I am completely wrong and we can have a nice weekend to look forward to.

Thank you all for your knowledgeable input. I am completely at a loss to know where this is heading.

[stupidboypike] 29/8/2024 13:52

I am slightly less optimistic than mb on profits, I use a conservative estimate of £10 per meter profit over the lifetime, so yesterdays announcement is £65m of profit FOR ONE ORDER against a market cap of £25m! At some point the stock market becomes a weighing machine not a voting machine, I'm happy to wait for that if I need to. Of course a cheap take over in the shorter term would be painful, but still a good uplift form where we are today, so still makes sense to wait. Another 6 or 10m order would surely get the share price moving, it will come at some point I'm sure.
Best regards SBP

[cousinit] 29/8/2024 10:46

MB - It definitely feels like the adviser community is going in to overdrive. Irrespective of what does happen, they will have earned a large chunk of fees! Given how thin UK markets are, price insensitive activity may now be quite distortive.

I spoke with one of my friends yesterday. He has been pillar to post with the NHS over the past months and waited ages for scheduled appointments. He's only now on the mend after taking a couple of private consultations where his medication was changed. His GP's reaction was that it was 'unconventional', but not sure how long you try the same thing and expect a different outcome?

[inthetin] 29/8/2024 10:33

"In 2020, Dr David Hope and Julian Limberg, researchers at the London School of Economics’ International Inequalities Institute, looked at evidence from five decades of tax breaks across 18 countries.

They found that these tax breaks had NO IMPACT on economic growth or the unemployment rate. That would appear to clash with the long-held argument of “trickle-down economics” used by proponents of tax breaks for the wealthy.

The U.K. might be leading the millionaire loser league table. But with its economy barreling ahead at 0.4% in May, the country’s new wealth-cautious government isn’t likely to be too phased."

[multibagger] 29/8/2024 10:19

You could be on the money CousinIT - everyone is desperately seeking ways to mitigate/avoid the marauding tax tsunami...I have been looking further afield in terms of different jurisdictions to be honest - as taxation aside the very sorry state of the NHS (with no feasible upturn in sight) does not offer confidence as we get older !

[cousinit] 29/8/2024 10:11

Not sure if this is still the case, but could losses be being banked in AIM names ahead of the budget if wholesale changes are expected? I think you have to be out for a month to crystallise losses.

EIS Relief

Loss relief if the investment fails or is disposed of at a loss
— This is calculated at an investor’s top rate of tax (currently 45 per cent for a higher rate payer) effectively on the net loss, after taking into account the initial
tax relief
— Losses can be relieved either against capital gains in the year of loss or a subsequent year or against income in the year of the loss or the previous year
— The maximum net loss can thus be restricted 38.5 per cent (see example).

[tightfist] 29/8/2024 10:10

Hi MB, just repeat after me - "I have discovered a camouflaged £22bn hole, left by the last inhabitants".On that basis, anything is in play...... it doesn't need to make sense!

[multibagger] 29/8/2024 09:12

Hi tightfist,

Yes that has been speculated on as well - but if you want the economy to grow does it make sense to squash the entrepreneurs ? A part of me thinks that BPR will be allowed to stay..

If this can happen to Nvidia share price post doubling of revenues, where does CYAN have a hope in this market ?

[tightfist] 29/8/2024 09:02

Apart from CGT harmonisation, one of the wider effects could be to rein-in BPR/IHT relief on some AIM shares. That couldn't help..... (and may also be related to the Jan 2022 RNS?)

[dumper1] 29/8/2024 08:29

I did see that and wondered about the wider effects likely.

[multibagger] 29/8/2024 07:03

Hi dumper1,

Yes it is very disappointing and exasperating that the share price barely budged...but getting into conspiracy theories, price fixing etc and posting online can be catastrophic for keyboard warriors. Anonymity does not apply when it comes into a legal arena.

People can and do get very offended when their integrity is seen/perceived as impugned.

Rachel seems to be lining up CGT to harmonise with IT rates and FT today carries an item about people getting really worried about it....

[dumper1] 29/8/2024 06:54

My thoughts as well multi, but these days I can fully understand why some are getting quite exasperated with a patently unnatural feel to the share price lately which is not even seemingly acknowledged by the company, maybe there should be a ‘we know of no reason why the share price is stubbornly not moving’ rns :)

But we shouldn’t assume anything, we all know what that does!

[tightfist] 29/8/2024 06:49

We know S Chari increased his holdings by 1.69% seven days later. Presumably IMO some of the beneficiaries cashed in their chips - but we don't know the share price actually paid......

[multibagger] 29/8/2024 06:43

Good morning dumper1 and all :)

Excellent find !

"....RNS Number : 9115Z
CyanConnode Holdings PLC
28 January 2022
CyanConnode Holdings PLC
("CyanConnode Holdings plc" or the "Company")
Director dealing
The Company has been informed that, as result of a distribution made to beneficiaries of an estate that David Johns-Powell, a Non-Executive Director of the Company, is an executor of, there has been a change in his beneficial interests held in CyanConnode Holdings plc. 3,176,656 ordinary shares of 2 pence each in the Company, have been transferred to other beneficiaries at a price of 28.3 pence per Ordinary Share.
Post this transactions, David Johns-Powell has an interest in 16,117,360 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 7.26% of the Company's total voting rights...."

Worth noting my emphasis in bold:

1.A transfer to beneficiaries is not a real sale in my book - probably assets being passed on within the family for various tax planning and business reasons. Assets being relocated into other younger family member portfolios often following a bereavement and execution of a Will - yes, we are all mortal - people die and assets get re-distributed.

2. Holding 16m+ shares and being one of the largest private shareholders in the company is worth noting. Not exactly selling out or sold out.

3. Not sure how many on here have actually met the gentleman and understood the nature and extent of his business interests.....I have several times. His initial £1m investment in CYAN was to take advantage of an EIS offer....

4. Posting material on a public BB that could be potentially construed as libel or slander can be very expensive to defend against a "Lloyd Name".....yes, the BoD do read this and other boards.

[multibagger] 29/8/2024 06:26

O/T

Good morning DTB !

I need to ask you something and I have sent you a private message through ADVFN....you can access it by clicking on the "envelope icon" in the top right corner of the ADVFN BB website and reply using the same method.

Kind regards, Multi

[dumper1] 29/8/2024 06:16

This one? Do we know they were sold or assumption?




TIDMCYAN
RNS Number : 9115Z
CyanConnode Holdings PLC
28 January 2022
CyanConnode Holdings PLC
("CyanConnode Holdings plc" or the "Company")
Director dealing
The Company has been informed that, as result of a distribution made to beneficiaries of an estate that David Johns-Powell, a Non-Executive Director of the Company, is an executor of, there has been a change in his beneficial interests held in CyanConnode Holdings plc. 3,176,656 ordinary shares of 2 pence each in the Company, have been transferred to other beneficiaries at a price of 28.3 pence per Ordinary Share.
Post this transactions, David Johns-Powell has an interest in 16,117,360 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 7.26% of the Company's total voting rights.
Enquiries:

CyanConnode Holdings plc Tel: [phone]
060
John Cronin, Executive Chairman www.cyanconnode.com

Arden Partners Plc (Nomad and Broker) Tel: [phone]
5900
Paul Shackleton / Elliot Mustoe (Corporate
Finance)
Simon Johnson (Corporate Broking)

[inthetin] 28/8/2024 22:29

28/01/2022 - 28.3p

[bscuit] 28/8/2024 19:16

ITT - your last. No argument, but why make a game changing announcement without the detail of how the game is to be played.

Your 8564,I haven't been paying attention. When was the relationship sale disclosed to the market? And the share price at that date?

[inthetin] 28/8/2024 17:30

This 250 SM project hasn't just landed out of the blue. All parties have had years & years to work out how it's to be funded.