Ceres Power Share Discussion Threads

[book5] 26/1/2024 18:56

Markets are strong
Global hydrogen ETF up during last week(from year low)
Cwr up
What is not to like it?
CWR is a solid option

[brucie5] 26/1/2024 16:25

Well for those familiar with the story and seek to get involved, there is a basic trilemma: do you wait for it to drop down below £2; or do you wait for it to turn technically and unambiguously bullish at £3.
Or do you buy now.

[richpassi] 26/1/2024 16:22

Someone just paid 2.40 they must be expecting 2.50 by end of day lol

[folderboy] 26/1/2024 15:00

Odd pattern today? Or am I, as ever, reading too much into daily movements that often make no sense?

[brucie5] 25/1/2024 16:23

Yes, point taken. I believe CWR used to be part of the IPO stable, did it not, which is designed to incubate new IP and so avoid the exactly the kind of story that VLS exemplifies. Sadly for IPO shareholders, it was 'let go'; but with enough working capital, one hopes to make it through to the B/E and over the other side. Trouble with the opacity of potential deals & partners is that commentators like the MF point to a n 'unproven' revenue model; and they are strictly correct, until such time that we do indeed get to profit.
In the meantime this is not a likely destination for risk-off capital; and the for the layman it's technically quite a difficult story to understand.
But I remain positive, have a core holding, though may trade some of my position.
Like I say, the share price is currently in no man's land and could go either way, but I'm reassured by its support above £2.

[scrutable] 25/1/2024 16:13

brucie
further to my post 2234, the undervaluation coming from the CEO's minimalist approach is exampled by the case of Delta. It was hidden for years until suddenly bursting firework-like over the market with more than £22m immediate free cash and say £21m more to come - none of it foreseen and therefore not in the share price. Clearly there are others in the CWR pipeline to surprise us in future.

This is furthered by the markets simplistic approach measuring share value with the hindsight of historical accounts ie PERs, assets p/share, dividend levels etc, utterly inappropriate for a company like CWR generating only abstract IP and using licensing skills.

In the USA,' futuristic' growth companies with rapidly growing revenues usually increase $Billions in capitalisation whilst increasing losses. The UK market damns any company whose business needs ever growing working capital. That's the main reason why UK 'crown Jewels' are constantly under threat of US takeovers.

Watch what happens in coming years to AVCT, ONT, IKA each with unexpressed IP in the SP

,,. As a further extreme example and scandal, VLS struggled desperately since Y2006 with accumulating research and development costs and a string of cash calls whilst turning rubbish into aircraft fuel. Despite a contract with British Airways, Its share price eroded from 240p to 0.24p. It has been taken over for a song. Its value was not visible in the share price but will in the future be tapped cheaply by the new buyer

[book5] 25/1/2024 14:14

Very good performance

[brucie5] 25/1/2024 09:41

Some interesting share price strength this morning, which may/not wane as the day progresses. But technically, the share seems to be in no-man's land, between 50 and 100 on the smas, and 100-200 on the wmas. This seems to me significant, as many were calling this down to below £2 yesterday on the cancellation the JV; but as we know this didn't happen. I'm still hopeful that DELTA has reminded the market of the potential of CWR's IP and network of interested customers: if the company succeeds, the share price will in due course be several times higher as Berenberg/Liberum suggest. If not; then clearly not. But question for investors is, what what is the appropriate discount to apply in the meantime?
Technically, afaic, a move above 2.50 (the 200wma) will be provisionally bullish ("under starters orders"); whereas a move to 290 (200sma) will be a signal that the starting gun has actually been fired.
£1.80 or below: event postponed due to bad weather!

[1teepee] 24/1/2024 20:46

A threesome would be one to remember, however lots of twosomes are still pretty good and more than adequate

[brucie5] 24/1/2024 17:31

Gosh Edgar - I hope you're speaking "metaphorically". No share is worth that kind of risk.

[2cmb] 24/1/2024 16:07

Edgar40.
Keep the chin up mate. Don't even think about the house. Sorry that you find yourself in this situation. Part of life's rich tapestry so to say.
ATB and GLA

[edgar40] 24/1/2024 15:37

Agree with all that.
For too long - and Ceres are responsible - we have been champing at the bit for news of the JV. That has now gone. I’m pleasantly surprised that the share price is £2+. The slate is now clean.
As a long term holder (with very a very significant paper loss), I’m holding. I will revisit this post in 1 year, and will be v. upset (ie: I’ll have to sell the house upset) if things haven’t perked up. Good luck to all

[brucie5] 24/1/2024 15:37

Thanks Scrutable. I'd be interested to hear further from you on your analysis for this company going forward.But your clearly quite positive about value of its IP.

[scrutable] 24/1/2024 15:10

Today's trading update conforms to the expected minimalist pattern. CEO Phil Caldwell is always exceptionally tight lipped and makes less RNS announcements thany other innovators, whom I follow.

Thus the market knows nothing of any developments or collaborations, let alone revenue from Ceres' many partnerships, other than those already licensed (and understandably little about them). I counsel investors to research web sites like those of AVL List of Austria of which I can only find one: a reference to their cllaborative partnership, begun with Ceres back in Feb 2021. Since then not one word re this world leading power-train consultants headed by the famous List family, who employ 11,000 and have 1.86B revenue from testing and consulting on automotive sytems for the likes of Daimler and VW.

Yet Ceres must get revenue from them as well as from Japanese boiler making licensee Giula.

Another example: Robert Bosch recently had an order for 100 SOFC truck engines to power Nikola's new hydrogen-powered trucks in the USA surviving despite CEO Trevor Milton's 3-year jail sentence for fraudulent reporting to Wall street. No news of the order (nor congratulations from Ceres).

Conclusion: CWR has masses of IP value in collaborative progress with unknown parties like, until this month, Delta and its £43m non 'income' transfer to come,

[cerrito] 24/1/2024 14:58

For the record cash burn in H2 23 was about GBP21m the same as H1 23 and better than the GBP40m in H2 21.

[brucie5] 24/1/2024 14:50

Not quite the sort of bloodbath some here were expecting? But I was obviously premature in my top up yesterday. Pending an invasion of Taiwan or some other unforeseen event- G'd forbid- I would have thought the medium term future here is now as secure as its ever been. In which case £2 should really mark the bottom of what has been a massive decline. Reminder: we are now/still at 2020 lows after which it went up x8.

[chessman2] 24/1/2024 13:51

Do not forget that one or both of the large holders paid 1300p for their stake.

[xxnjr] 24/1/2024 13:02

thx mcmather.

[mcmather] 24/1/2024 12:51

37,965,262 ordinary shares = 19.74%


And Bosch:

33,790,880 ordinary shares = 17.57%

[bjfanc] 24/1/2024 12:07

If you follow Ballard, you'll see it had similar problems with Weichai. Not much you can do, if they are also a large shareholder.

[skinny] 24/1/2024 10:50

I would think that is a strong possibility - its still a very fluid industry.

[bmel] 24/1/2024 10:43

It is possible that Bosch have had second thoughts.

They have just announced that they are to start manufacturing hydrogen combustion engines for trucks and commercial vehicles.