Ceres Power Share Discussion Threads

[richpassi] 28/7/2023 14:28

What a difference a week makes ! If CWR have a quiet August trading wise I can see this drifting backwards as those that jumped on last week realise that a quick buck is not guaranteed.

[brucie5] 28/7/2023 11:03

Calling board historians: do we have a projected date for CWR to become profitable?
Edit: cash burn over last year 221-162= 59m.

[brucie5] 28/7/2023 10:57

Just to remind:


Tempered by this:

Current trading and outlook

-- Bosch and Weichai have reconfirmed to Ceres their commitment to the China JVs and are targeting signature this year. However, given the continued delay which is not within Ceres' control, and the time required post signature for regulatory clearances, we are taking a prudent view that the revenue associated with the JVs is now unlikely to be recognised this year. This reduces our expectation for 2023 by an estimated net GBP15m (compared with current market consensus [1] ), by moving revenue associated with the China JVs to 2024, partially offset by the anticipation of additional licence fee revenue from new contract wins this year.

[bjfanc] 28/7/2023 09:51

Makes sense to push on with SOEC and signing up new partners. Wouldn't rely on a Weichai JV.

[bmel] 27/7/2023 17:53

The deal has an up-front one-ff payment followed by a per unit produced royalty.

I think the 15m is the upfront element. Doing this on a phone so can’t read through the full details in the ceres presentations. Have a look there.

[brucie5] 27/7/2023 17:45

edgar4027 Jul '23 - 17:42 - 1733 of 1733
0 0 0
Is this right, or rose-tinted??
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's say more positively you might be seeing it through the prism of a fuel cell.
;)

[edgar40] 27/7/2023 17:42

Disappointing to hear about the further JV delay, but encouraged that the price remains above 350p. Hopefully all the bad news is now out of the way, and the only way really is up (as Yazz would put it)….

I was intrigued to read that the Board only predicted a £15m reduction in revenue in the calendar year, because of anticipated new deals. I recall it being stated that the Bosch / Weichai deal will ultimately add £30m immediately - presumably, therefore, that means that the anticipated deals will generate £15m in the next six months (ie: they will be about 50% the size of the Chinese JV. Is this right, or rose-tinted??

[ben chod] 27/7/2023 12:37

hydrogen boilers havebeen kicked aroundfor yonks there was even talkofa tieup with Centrica and everyonegot excited withthethen CEOPeterBance seemsliketherewasntmuch appetite then

[brucie5] 27/7/2023 12:20

Thanks Smokey. FWIW, I've doubled up on both CWR and ITM this morning. Now I probably need to take a step back and see how the dust settles.
Thanks to all on this bb for your informative posts present and past over last five years (!!!).
I'm mainly an income/value investor, but currently rather concerned about the climate is going to affect all our lives and those of our children so my interest here is borne somewhat of that. CWR with its award winning tech, market opportunity, capital light licensing model, big stake holders, cash runway and material international partnerships seems to tick almost all boxes for me - except actual earnings, which are clearly some way away.
I also hold IES, IPO, ONT, SCE as part of the same train of thought - the triumph, perhaps of optimism over past history! But for all our sakes, Hope must spring eternal.

;)

[smokey 1o3] 27/7/2023 11:58

Brucie- Spot on regarding Gas Boilers but I would like to see them replaced with CHP boilers with Ceres Fuel Cells. Size is a problem but lets hope miniaturisation can bring this about before too long. It is something that was talked about early on at Cees and a prototype was installed in some senior staff homes but nothing came of it because they were too big.

[brucie5] 27/7/2023 10:11

And this link from British Gas answers my question fairly completely.



The UK government is looking at plans to replace natural gas with hydrogen gas – because it’s much more environmentally friendly.

But if this happens, it will be a gradual process that takes years, rather than something that changes all at once. And that means it shouldn’t be extra hassle or expense for homeowners. In fact, some of the biggest boiler manufacturers in the UK have promised that hydrogen-ready boilers won’t cost any more than a regular gas-powered boiler.1

Nobody knows the exact timescales, and a lot of the technical details still need to be ironed out, but the change is likely to happen in three main stages.

The first step in the hydrogen transition is likely to be introducing a 20% hydrogen blend into the UK mains supply. Most boilers will be able to use this hydrogen blend without any problems. In fact, many new boilers are already labelled ‘hydrogen-blend ready’ ahead of this first move towards hydrogen.

In the meantime, boiler manufacturers are working on a new ‘hydrogen-ready’ standard which will mean the UK can switch as easily as possible to 100% hydrogen much further down the line. The important thing to realise is that ‘hydrogen-ready’ boilers are still in development, whereas ‘hydrogen-blend ready’ boilers are widely available.

The government is currently carrying out trials to work through all the cost, feasibility and safety issues – and they’re expected to make firm decisions on what role hydrogen will play in heating the UK’s homes by 2026.

But although the timescales and exact details are still be ironed out, any switch to hydrogen is likely to happen in three main stages.

Stage 1
New boilers will be built to a new ‘hydrogen-ready’ standard, which means they’ll work with natural gas but can also be easily modified to run on 100% hydrogen. According to some industry estimates, these boilers should be available before 2025.

Stage 2
A 20% hydrogen blend will be introduced into the gas supply. Most boilers will be able to use this as normal – including all new British Gas boilers. The rollout of 20% hydrogen isn’t expected to begin until 2028 at the very earliest.

Stage 3
If the country switches to 100% hydrogen, every new boiler sold in the UK will simply be a hydrogen boiler. If this does happen, it probably won’t happen until the mid-2040s.

[brucie5] 27/7/2023 09:59

Couldn't find anything on the link about domestic boilers, which is one area that does pique my interest, since we face a cliff edge with replacement of natural gas fueled boilers; and I cannot see the feasibility of air heat pumps, certainly not for the 38% of solid brick housing stock in the UK! As an owner of a Worcester Bosch boiler, I'd like to know what plans our 18% stakeholder might have for the reinvention of its very considerable domestic boiler business along these lines?



Seasoned PIs will need to forgive the naivety of my questions and observations, but I'm here to learn as quickly as possible and perhaps speak for others too embarrassed to state their ignorance!
;)

[brucie5] 27/7/2023 09:49

For those like me, largely ignorant about the role of fuel cells, past present and future, this link provides a useful introduction. I must say, from a standing start, I'm fascinated to know more about how CWR distinguishes itself from the crowd.



Here are some generic takeaways in no particular order:

Efficiency:
A fuel cell, like a battery, is inherently a high-efficiency device. Unlike internal-combustion machines, in which a fuel is burned and gas is expanded to do work, the fuel cell converts chemical energy directly into electrical energy. Because of this fundamental characteristic, fuel cells may convert fuels to useful energy at an efficiency as high as 60 percent, whereas the internal-combustion engine is limited to efficiencies near 40 percent or less. The high efficiency means that much less fuel and a smaller storage container are needed for a fixed energy requirement. For this reason, fuel cells are an attractive power supply for space missions of limited duration and for other situations where fuel is very expensive and difficult to supply. They also emit no noxious gases such as nitrogen dioxide and produce virtually no noise during operation, making them contenders for local municipal power-generation stations.

Recycling of energy:
A fuel cell can be designed to operate reversibly. In other words, a hydrogen-oxygen cell that produces water as a product can be made to regenerate hydrogen and oxygen. Such a regenerative fuel cell entails not only a revision of electrode design but also the introduction of special means for separating the product gases. Eventually, power modules comprising this type of high-efficiency fuel cell, used in conjunction with large arrays of thermal collectors for solar heating or other solar energy systems, may be utilized to keep energy-cycle costs lower in longer-lived equipment. Major automobile companies and electrical-machinery manufacturing companies worldwide have announced their intention to produce or use fuel cells commercially in the next few years.

Fuels/impact on efficiency:
A wide range of liquid and solid fuels may be used for a heat-engine system, while hydrogen, reformed natural gas (i.e., methane that has been converted to hydrogen-rich gas), and methanol are the primary fuels available for current fuel cells. If fuels such as natural gas must be altered in composition for a fuel cell, the net efficiency of the fuel cell system is reduced, and much of its efficiency advantage is lost. Such an “indirect” fuel cell system would still display an efficiency advantage as high as 20 percent. Nonetheless, to be competitive with modern thermal generating plants, a fuel cell system must attain a good design balance with low internal electrical losses, corrosion-resistant electrodes, an electrolyte of constant composition, low catalyst costs, and ecologically acceptable fuels.

SOFC: (Which I believe is what CWR do?)
In some ways solid oxide fuel cells are similar to molten carbonate devices. Most of the cell materials, however, are special ceramics with some nickel. The electrolyte is an ion-conducting oxide such as zirconia treated with yttria. The fuel for these experimental cells is expected to be hydrogen combined with carbon monoxide, just as for molten carbonate cells. While internal reactions would be different in terms of path, the cell products would be water vapour and carbon dioxide. Because of the high operating temperatures (900 to 1,000 °C, or 1,600 to 1,800 °F), the electrode reactions proceed very readily. As in the case of the molten carbonate fuel cell, there are many engineering challenges involved in creating a long-lived containment system for cells that operate at such a high-temperature range.

Solid oxide fuel cells would be designed for use in central power-generation stations where temperature variation could be controlled efficiently and where fossil fuels would be available. The system would in most cases be associated with the so-called bottoming steam (turbine) cycle—i.e., the hot gas product (at 1,000 °C) of the fuel cell could be used to generate steam to run a turbine and extract more power from heat energy. Overall efficiencies of 60 percent might be possible.

The recent/current/future and emerging picture:
The need for highly efficient and stable power supplies for space satellites and manned spacecraft created exciting new opportunities for fuel cell development during the 1950s and ’60s. Molten carbonate cells with magnesium oxide pressed against the electrodes were demonstrated by J.A.A. Ketelaar and G.H.J. Broers of the Netherlands, while the very thin Teflon-bonded, carbon-metal hybrid electrode was devised by other researchers. Many other technological advances, including the development of new materials, played a crucial role in the emergence of today’s practical fuel cells. Further improvements in electrode materials and construction, combined with the rising costs of fossil fuels, are expected to make fuel cells an increasingly attractive alternative power source, especially in Japan and other countries that have meagre nonrenewable energy resources. At the beginning of the 21st century, many electrical-equipment manufacturers were developing power-generation equipment based on fuel cell technology.

[brucie5] 27/7/2023 08:46

Spent over an hour last night reading the thread from 2018. On some fronts, learned a lot, particularly on the waxing and waning of pis enthusiasms!!! But also the licensing model and significant stakeholders in Weichei and Bosch and significant partnerships in Doosan & Shell.
In respect of the technology itself, I'm little further on, except for basic idea of what it's fuel cells do and that they have a wide range of applications, from gas boilers to large utility storage, where hydrogen can be stored and converted to electricity.
Would anyone be able list the market opportunity for each in order of likely/putative size? Figures unnecessary.
TiA.

[book5] 27/7/2023 07:56

Award winning technology , there is hope
Path will not be easy

[skinny] 27/7/2023 07:51

.

.

[book5] 27/7/2023 07:46

Skinny
Is it fair to say that currently, Cwr main business is not in the production of hydrogen but in the natural gas industry? Cwr products extract more energy per unit of gas and requires cheaper installations.

[skinny] 26/7/2023 13:23

Here's hoping.

[brucie5] 26/7/2023 13:17

Thanks. Love the picture - makes a change from tea leaves!
Bought some ITM this morning on basis of the chart. First time in years.
In the hope that CWR + ITM = hydrogen future.
;)

[skinny] 26/7/2023 13:17

Also Brucie - you mentioned 25% of peak high - the whole chart :-

[skinny] 26/7/2023 13:10

I should add that amongst others, I hold both ITM & CWR - I have taken profit and had my original stake back on both.

I've also recently averaged up on both for the first time in some years.

[skinny] 26/7/2023 13:08

Brucie - you do have to wonder! But at least its positive and a (slight) increase in TP.

Probably something like this :-

[brucie5] 26/7/2023 12:33

Skinny, do you have any idea as how this kind of valuation is reached? On basis of peer values, dcf, revenues..?
I just notice the following comparators with ITM, which is also now technically bullish:

ITM mcap 572 Rev. 3.5
CWR macap 710 Rev. 22

I believe both appear fully funded for time being?
If there is to be a hydrogen future, they are probably both worth backing as a small piece of a growth/tech folio holding, but happy to hear otherwise.

[skinny] 26/7/2023 12:23

25-Jul-23 Ceres Power (CWR) Berenberg Bank Buy 1,155.00 1,140.00 Reiteration

[brucie5] 25/7/2023 15:24

Yes: looks like a very cheeky retest of the 200sma. In which case, fairly bullish from a technical pov.