Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 31/7/2017 11:15

Copper at circa $2.90/lb - $6400/tonne versus $2.21/lb - $4994/tonne 2016 average.

The pro-rata impact of the current copper price on the bottom line over 2016, would be the same as delivering a production increase from 14,000t to approximately 18,000t, without any increase in operating cost.

Throw in an average 16% devaluation of the GBP against the US$ then, the divided does not only look safe but could well exceed Pell Hunt's 16.99p forecast.

[mount teide] 31/7/2017 08:30

Annual Report - 'The team has assessed over 100 opportunities in the past two years in the continued search for profitable growth. CAML’s objective remains to grow through acquisition with the fundamental rationale being shareholder accretion over several financial metrics at a range of copper prices.

Market sentiment has varied greatly throughout the year as the copper price appreciated in Q4 2016 and this has impacted on valuation perceptions. In spite of near to medium term copper price uncertainty, many other market participants are proposing asset valuations that assume copper prices in excess of consensus expectations. Consequently it has been challenging to source accretive transactions of a transformational nature.'


They have clearly found valuation perceptions across the sector a little too rich for their and probably their shareholders taste! Sensibly decided to concentrate on exploring the huge potential of Shuak and delivering industry leading dividend payments, while they continue the search for an accretive acquisition.

[danieldruff2] 31/7/2017 08:29

I just think there's an inflexion point where the fact there will be nothing at all left after Kounrad is mined, outweighs the cash generation - probably at least 5 years out though. They have been so slow doing other things off their own back that maybe corporate activity is more likely.

[return_of_the_apeman] 31/7/2017 08:26

Afraid I disagree Daniel, happy that they are returning cash to shareholders, I will take a near 8% divi and a short term broker target of about £3

Have added this morning as the conditions look perfect for this to continue to rise

[danieldruff2] 31/7/2017 08:18

Yes it's all great but this is still a one project company. They had 20 years to build a company, rather than run a project, at the time Kounrad came online. Now they have 15 years, but they haven't got much closer. One FS that didn't cut the mustard and now drilling a few holes here and there. Board is looking a bit lazy IMO, need to start building a proper mining company off the great cash flow from Kounrad.

[mount teide] 31/7/2017 08:11

Copper now $2.91/lb - circa $6400/tonne

CAML's average 2016 sales price was $4994/tonne

[mount teide] 31/7/2017 07:49

Encouraging to see the price of copper surge in the quarter when as a result of seasonality, CAML has its highest production output and sales.

[masurenguy] 31/7/2017 00:17

Good spot MT - a further 9.7% uptick in the projected dividend would also be a great bonus following last years 24% uplift.

[mount teide] 30/7/2017 22:19

On Friday, Peel Hunt reissued its 'buy' rating in a research report, with a 290p target price - they have a 16.99p dividend forecast for 2017(7.7% yield at current s/p).

[arf dysg] 30/7/2017 19:17

Why won't this camel go up?

Put some COPPER in the HOPPER!

Come in from the COLD, collect some GOLD!

[arf dysg] 27/7/2017 15:15

Hello, Effendi, I find you nice LADYCAMEL.

Man and camel, camel and man, have YEARS of pleasure together.

[sithuk] 26/7/2017 21:39

Do these numbers look about right?

2016 fy EPS 17p
Cash in bank: 35p per share.

Kounrad 2016fy production: 14kt Cu @ 1$/lb cost. Same for 2017.

Assuming a conservative PER of 5: (can anyone give examples where that should be a higher multiple?)
Cu price/SP target
2.75$/lb: 120p
3$/lb: 137p
3.25$/lb: 155p
3.5$/lb: 173p

What is the forward projection for production growth from Shuak, or from an increase at Kounrad, or other projects?

[shakeypremis] 26/7/2017 13:20

VOX Markets saying the #5 most followed company on the site is now CAML. Clearly getting some interest.

[ntv] 26/7/2017 11:58

that seller will be an institution selling down to his mates so he will say "oh sorry but we will still have x amount left. it doesn't matter about the mug punters with pensions . they will only expect a 6% return this year anyway or 3%. anyway where is my big fat cheque for my outperformance."

[mr roper] 26/7/2017 09:11

Knife through butter

[mr roper] 26/7/2017 09:07

First attack on 220p...,

[ileeman] 26/7/2017 08:49

Bought £50k yesterday, go to be the best undervlaued producer out there and that was before the huge rise in copper over last few days.

Looks like there is a seller but once they clear this will rerate.

[mr roper] 26/7/2017 08:08

All eyes on the 200dma at 220p. Bulls live above, bears live below. Where will we be at the end of the day?

[mr roper] 26/7/2017 07:24

$4 lb would be staggering. As Tony Manini at Asiamet says re the copper price, " you ain't seen nothing yet...."

[gersemi] 26/7/2017 07:20

Freeport-Mc is forecasting copper prices to hit $4/LB in the next 12 months and they believe a deficit is looming

[mr roper] 26/7/2017 07:16

They'll be even more distressed when they see the share price over the next few sessions

[gersemi] 26/7/2017 06:55

Copper flying and CAML price flaccid ..Top drawer cash generation, no debt

so what gives here? Is it a distressed seller?

[mr roper] 26/7/2017 06:46

Unbelievable isn't it shaken! Just checked it 2.88!

[shakeypremis] 26/7/2017 06:42

Mr Roper, they'll have even more cash with this increase in the copper price.

Fudgin 'eck, look at copper!