Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/8/2017 16:40

Hi Joe Say,

One would hope they will start mining something else before 10yrs is up and existing mining rights to become less risky / more viable if copper price rises, if they are not already viable (we shall see on this soon)

If copper price falls in the near term then projects they have already looked at will become viable, but hopefully they can find something better.

Worst case, I expect to have my investment returned via dividend payments within 6-10yrs, hopefully within 6 as I expect price of copper to rise not fall.

I am happy to hold for he long term but expect the shr price to rise in the near term

A £4 target does not seem stretching it to me, what do you think?

[mount teide] 21/8/2017 16:33

Good to see Copper poke its head above $3/lb again into the close.

[arf dysg] 21/8/2017 16:21

return_of_the_apeman, no I'm not feeling worried. The rising copper price just strengthens the longer-term outlook.

[joe say] 21/8/2017 15:43

Return - does your share price target allow for any new sources (or just the run down of the existing)?

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/8/2017 15:38

Hi Art Dysg and welcome aboard

A further rise in the price of copper, while nice to have, is not really necessary now imo

Revenue and profit are going to beat forecasts, this can largely be deduced from the high visibility of the simple business model here and historic price of copper

The company has stated that special dividends are on the table as it finds no acquisitions worthy at the current copper price - I think these are nailed on to the table at the moment.

Mine has 15yrs left, this makes this company a cash cow and can easily command a much higher shr price and attractive divi

The fundamentals are so exceptional and return for shareholders via the divis so great that more tips must follow imo

At the current copper price or even lower, it has to be a takeover target and if the price of copper rises much more, which is forecast, it is going to look bonkers at this shr price.

If you are genuinely worried, it might be worth doing a bit more digging and some further calculations of fair shr price given the sort of dividends that are going to come.

If a well followed and respected tipster is next to write up this story then I see this in the £3-£4 range before and after the results. Medium to long term the value is there and I will review my own investment at £4.

Dyor

[poleaxe] 21/8/2017 15:05

Yes and i hope my sell was not either, as i intend to buy back in.

[arf dysg] 21/8/2017 14:39

I note that the price of copper does not seem to be entirely nailed to the floor today. This leaves room for hope that my purchase in the first few minutes of trading this morning was not totally misguided.

[mount teide] 21/8/2017 08:51

At the circa 255p Feb highs and the circa 205p July lows, the spot price of copper for a week or so was almost identical at circa US$2.70/lb

Big thanks to Fidelity for creating the opportunity for us all to take advantage of that situation before copper broke north again above $2.70/lb

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/8/2017 08:23

See this was tipped at the weekend, plenty more write ups will be done before and after the results imo

[ntv] 21/8/2017 08:22

with these and spsy today it looks like a good start to the week :-))

[mount teide] 21/8/2017 08:12

Good start 244.9p now being paid

[gary1966] 21/8/2017 08:07

Briefly over $300/lb

[mr.oz] 21/8/2017 07:21

Copper futures up another one percent

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/8/2017 07:16

Good spot MT, would say a special divi or substantial divi hike is fairly certain, which will be a nice bonus

[mount teide] 19/8/2017 18:18

World copper mine output falls 3% in first 5 months of 2017 - Mining Weekly



Global copper mine output was 3% lower year-on-year during the first five months of 2017, the latest data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed on Friday.

Concentrate production declined by around 2.5% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) declined by around 4.5%.

The Lisbon-based think tank attributed the decline in world mine production mainly to a 10%, or 220 000t copper decline in production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, which was negatively affected by the strike at Escondida mine and lower output from Codelco mines.

Further, a decline in Canada and Mongolia concentrates output of 20% and 21%, respectively, mainly owing to lower grades in planned mining sequencing also weighed on output, while a 14% decline in Indonesian concentrate production was brought about by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April.

A 11% drop in US output, also owing to lower ore grades, reduced mining rates and unfavourable weather conditions at the beginning of the year.

However these reductions in output were partially offset by a 11% and 6% rise in Mexican (concentrate and SX-EW) and Peruvian (concentrate) output, respectively, with both countries benefitting from new and expanded capacity that was not yet fully available in the same period of last year.

[mount teide] 19/8/2017 11:08

With the highly elevated asset valuations across the copper sector proving a little too rich for CAML's management to spend our fast growing cash pile on, i expect little to change in this respect over the next two years. And that Management's MO should the copper price continue to strengthen, will therefore likely be the further evaluation of the Shuak assets, where the current drilling programme is assessing the potential of the estimated copper-in-place of 327,000 tonnes, together with dividend hikes and special dividends.

If the copper price forecasts prove correct and the price of the metal reaches a conservative $5+ by 2020, then a CAML valuation estimate of £5-£6 a share might prove a conservative target for 2020.


Interesting report posted by mattjwhitty on another thread:

[someuwin] 19/8/2017 08:23

Share Prophets‏ @ShareProphets · 50m50 minutes ago

Just posted: Central Asia Metals is probably the most under-valued commodity play on the market! #CAML

[return_of_the_apeman] 18/8/2017 19:03

The beginning of the rise in the shr price should tell you they have stopped selling

All the selling was absorbed with buying without good news and was absorbed without a drop in the shr price

If we get the same buying over the next few weeks this could be north of £3

Imo

[waterloo01] 18/8/2017 16:00

Thanks for the tip here MT. Was interested why it was stuck at 2.20ish but guess the II RNS's answer that. The rise I hope means they have finished selling for now, plus the super rise in copper.

[return_of_the_apeman] 18/8/2017 15:56

Indeed, which makes it an easy tip to fill column inches in the run up + more may be written short term when copper breaks $3

Happy to wait for this to get to £4 and collect the divi along the way, then review.

"diamond hard and tungsten tipped" sounds like you might know my wife

[mount teide] 18/8/2017 15:17

Yep, with H1/2017 production ahead of H1/2016, sales up some 8%, and an average copper price some 23% higher in US$ terms and 41.5% higher in GBP terms, we should be able to look forward to some very strong revenue, profit and cash flow numbers in the headline statement of the Interims. Suggesting as a minimum the dividend protection is diamond hard and tungsten tipped.

[return_of_the_apeman] 18/8/2017 13:57

Thanks for the numbers, Mount Teide.

Doubled my holding here. Divi pa would be in excess of %10 if they used the same formula as last time, taking into account the additional revenue and current exchange rate.

[mount teide] 18/8/2017 08:54

Copper pricing realised in H1/2016 v average market price in H1/2017 in GBP

CAML realised an average Copper price of £3,360/tonne in H1/2016

Copper averaged £4,760 in H1/2017 (41.5% higher)

Copper is averaging circa £4,921 to date in H2/2017

Copper is currently trading at £5,175/tonne