Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/12/2021 16:02

Understood re this being Sukaru only - so as and when you (or anyone) have numbers for production then let's have them.

The other way to look at it - and simpler in numbers anyway - is that this is the worst case scenario - i.e. no production from anywhere else, ever.

And it's still reasonably valued at 90p or so discounting future cash flows. (Discounting the cash flows to the shareholders is the bottom line - i.e. after all royalties, taxes, bribes, whatever - allows us to compare against other quoted miners.)

i.e. 90p is the reasonable worst case view, or 'the bottom' - as long as the production forecasts are met.

I don't hold, but would be happy to buy at these levels.

(PS - it was a little gag about POLY paying dividends from debt - they don't, certainly not looking forward as capex falls. Same sort of table as here really - op cash flow, tax, capex, dividends, other and see what happens. It's all good.)


PPS - better to talk numbers, quantification, specifics about the investment proposition, is it not?

[system64] 09/12/2021 16:01

Useing debt is great until you have to pay it back +interest why not use money in bank for an acquisition or reduce share capital which would reduce divi payments ,at moment it is dead money with share price this low ,IMHO.

[justiceforthemany] 09/12/2021 15:55

No open short positions by institutions as per FCA
PI's have negligible impact on SP

[lodgeview] 09/12/2021 15:48

Well this is lovely. My shorts just keep on multiplying and I ain't closing yet. 60p target. The market saw right through Horgan's attempt of making it sound better than the real situation. Divi cut next and it is also possible that Sukari will be mothballed if POG drops as we know AISC is set to rise further!

[plat hunter] 09/12/2021 15:44

.... I was going to continue with capex, but Kenny got in there before me.Shareholders want money and capex for future growth. Perhaps what the market is really saying, "Use debt rather than our own cash"It's a tantrum, this is still a growing company, painful for some but it will pass.

[trader465] 09/12/2021 15:42

500koz is years away, as is production from any other CEY asset

[plat hunter] 09/12/2021 15:40

It's hard to disagree with much of that Stu, especially that "a rising tide lifts all boats" For me, i prefer book value discounts over the PE ratio but that's a personal choice based on my own risk appetite. I do the see the benefit of investing in the PE discounts however in my opinion that's where a lot of the subjective risk analysis you mention comes into play.CEY's PE ratio is also diluted massively because of the high royalty payment, which imo is why we should be looking at discount to forward cash flow and book value rather than a pe multipleI hold poly and like the fact they have multiple producing assets and pay dividends from debt. Inflate it away!!!! but when the credit taps get turned off they'll not be able to do that forever.

[the stinger] 09/12/2021 15:11

Yep Roger... I will have to cut my loss here... Solg it is.. hope 55p is the buyout there.

[roger207] 09/12/2021 15:09

55p possible

[the stinger] 09/12/2021 15:06

Big shame here but I think they may push CEY down further. Lost a packet here too. The only share I can see possibly doubling to recover my losses on at the moment is Solg, could double on takeover news, will see what tomorrow brings and see if I can get out higher than 88.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/12/2021 14:58

It will be obselete at $1,500, $2,000, $2,500 - whatever. Apart from at $1,800 - i.e. now.

It can only ever 'value' the company at an estimated gold price. So as for any PM miner, the share price can be expected to rise and fall with the PM price.

If you want to reduce the equation to its simplest term, you're just betting on the gold price - in which case just pick any of them.

I (personally) think it is better to see what the relative earnings valuations are to identify the cheaper ones (none cheaper than POLY - you know, the one that pays its dividends from debt...)

And then you have to factor in the more subjective parts - how do you factor in the political risk which varies by geography?

But surely best to start with the basic financial fundamentals first and go from there.

[justiceforthemany] 09/12/2021 14:49

Equity / shares in issue gives NAV book price of 115p

Quite some discount here.

[system64] 09/12/2021 14:31

Cey at its inter day low (near) gold)$6 off its inter day low strange

[338] 09/12/2021 14:30

Stu's financial forecast will be obsolete when PoG hit $2,000

[spacedust] 09/12/2021 14:29

Jackmya....what is the main objective of the vaccine from a scientific perspective? Supress symptoms!!!

If someone had cancer or any other condition like diabeties or internal bleeding or a menangitis you'd want the symptoms to show immediately. Early detection is a life saver. So why on earth would anyone want their covid symptoms to be supressed? Surely you'd want to see them so u can deal with them.

What am i missing? Genuine question.

[338] 09/12/2021 14:27

Honestly, from 2022 onwards AISC will be higher for gold miners around the world... The average selling gold price will also be higher... CEY will get more rewards from delivering higher gold volumes... where most of gold miners could produce less due to supply chain issues, etc...

[jackmya] 09/12/2021 14:17

Amanita... There are non so blind as those who refuse to see... Some people can never be helped... Anyway getting back to Cey. I first bought into Cey before we was granted the licences in Egypt so looking close to 20 years back.. My first purchase was 6p later to sell at 190p. Since then I have been in and out many times and right now I believe is a great time to buy and go long any price close to. 80p is a great opportunity... Good luck all

[trader465] 09/12/2021 14:17

30% divvy policy suggests $30m dividend, ie over a 50% divvy cut coming soon.

[justiceforthemany] 09/12/2021 14:09

Trading below book value. Silly.

[justiceforthemany] 09/12/2021 14:04

5 YEAR lows...
Apparently no open short positions either...