Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[greenelf] 03/10/2019 15:04

Boosh goes the gold price...usa ism services number must be bad...

[qs99] 03/10/2019 15:01

BE close then?

[qs99] 03/10/2019 14:47

sg31, it isn't necessarily a profit warning is it? Production lower, but don't recall anything about profits? DYOR

[sg31] 03/10/2019 14:18

The profit warning such as it is will be the reason for the sell off.

I suspect the CEO retiring is a case of 'jump before he's pushed'. He was brought in in the early days of the company when they were still drilling to find out what they had. Discovery, construction, development, production all need different skill sets.

Production has been accident prone for a while now. Maybe things will improve when they get a specialist in.

He's been a loyal and good employee, perfectly capable over the years but now time to let someone else with new ideas take over.

[bluebell7] 03/10/2019 14:14

Oh production down quick press the panic button,I know their sitting on a mountain of cash ,but you never know do you, best to be sure ,Pathetic

[plat hunter] 03/10/2019 13:59

Hit a nerve Kenny?

You are a full class plonker and fantasist with zero credibility... Happy for you to think of me what you want but i told you how this would play out and i've done very well out of it, so happy days..

I don't need to think I can ramp people up so I can sell or buy into volume. I for one am not delusional enough to think it makes a difference.

Behave yourself or I'll start pasting all your posts about this company over the last few weeks and months, to show you up even more.

[stevedaytrader] 03/10/2019 13:58

Agree MartinFrench alas- I won't be back in until sub 100- interesting comments on lse chat although pretty much mirrors those here. I thought 107 here at close, but I think even if this holds, tomorrow won't be good. Fingers crossed for all holders though, it's not nice as we are all here for the same making money reasons.

[martinfrench] 03/10/2019 13:55

steve,

think unless it hits 1600 dollars todays gold price but irrelevant on days like these.

looking for a £1 re entry point

[trader365] 03/10/2019 13:30

Ho dear sub 100p coming. Kenny piling his pocket money in here yesterday. Only down 13% so not as bad as his gamble on SXX (yet).

[stevedaytrader] 03/10/2019 13:22

Gold could move on the 14:00 announcement- "The ISM services report due at 10:00 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) is likely to show a reading of 55 in September, down from 56.4 in August."

[qs99] 03/10/2019 13:21

thanks Davius. Anyone got access to the Numis "divi" comfort new note? thanks

[stevedaytrader] 03/10/2019 13:21

Thanks QS99. Current CEO will be around ~up to 1 year while they find a new one (think market reaction would have not been anywhere near as severe had one been lined up to announce with this news). The problem is the markets see the ace gold price a quick bonus, whereas finding a new CEO, and meeting/exceeding forecast benefiting long term- whereas this looks like this could be a contraction in the capability overall at the moment which is not good for the med and long term. Plus add in the big drop in Feb caused by other bad news. This news feels like "we've been here before"...

[davius] 03/10/2019 13:19

In the first half they made $365 an ounce, currently they are making $550 an ounce, 50% more. Production could fall by a third and they'd still make more profit from the second half. So yes, the lower production is more than being offset by higher POG.

[qs99] 03/10/2019 13:08

EBITDA at interims was $117m, liquid assets $326 and Market cap of c.$1.5bn. So should CEY do double the H1 results? Call it c.$250m EBITDA and EV c.$1.2bn....with new CEO, improvements in practices / production and IR etc etc...if you think that ratio is not good, or that the risk is that the EBITDA will be a lot less then yes this could head materially lower, BUT with the POG heading north since the interims, could the lower production be offset by higher POG? DYOR

[stevedaytrader] 03/10/2019 13:05

The problem is the comms- very poor as we seem to get "double hit"- in the presentation and also now. the presentation said lower end with "Sept improving" assumption being this was needed to meet the lower end. Question- is the 97-98k forecast now- so what caused the improvement and will this cause the boost needed in Q4? We got a double hit which caused the drop to ~80, this being a miss- report on 23Oct key but it's hard to see anything other than more bad news even if report meets expectations as q4 confidence in markets will not be high. Conversely, any good news via their new way of communicating in q4 could provide rise in share price

[creditcrunchies] 03/10/2019 12:46

I like this summary just about sums it up:

Centamin was the biggest drag, losing 14½p, or 11.5 per cent, to 110¾p as its chief executive, Andrew Pardey, said that he would be leaving the gold miner next year. The Egypt-focused company also warned that production for the first nine months of the year was below its expectations, although it added that the lower range of its full-year guidance range "remains achievable".

So if it's the lower range the market valued it at around 79 to 90p range last time from memory.

[greenelf] 03/10/2019 12:44

No need for your aggression.. Chill buddy. Not all his fault no. But the trade war has accelerated the economic demise.

[creditcrunchies] 03/10/2019 12:40

I think we will do well to sit on our hands the FTSE has shat the bed the only time it has moved this fast without any bounces whatsoever was the EU referendum which is hardly inspiring and we still don't know what will happen. If it is no deal this index sure won't be going up it'll collapse first then bounce with plenty of bargains for all.

[qs99] 03/10/2019 12:35

I agree with Davius here. I think this may retrace to around £1.20...until results are out in a few weeks....to see true direction of travel and underlying EV/EBITDA IMO

[davius] 03/10/2019 12:30

"For me the update was a bit of a shocker."

Anyone making that statement should really do their research. This RNS has been used as an excuse to take the price down. The fact that production was coming in at the bottom end of the forecast range was revealed at the presentation a while ago, and caused the drop into the 120s.

[stevedaytrader] 03/10/2019 12:19

My view is lower, I think 107 at close.

[darius12] 03/10/2019 12:17

I'm afraid chances are that it will go lower still - maybe not today but expecting lower in the next few days. For me the update was a bit of a shocker.