Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[kennyp52] 16/9/2019 08:33

Very true wallywoo re Black Rock.

Saudi , Iran , Trump , Boris , German recession , Chinese output ... all point to safe haven assets IMO . We will see IF GOLD is in demand again this week with FED cuts also to come.

[stevedaytrader] 16/9/2019 08:33

Cinque- we all have our views and do the best we can. Pretty much all scenarios are true at some point on when to buy and sell- I held out too long on CEY, but then again atill made a 25% profit but got greedy although should not knock ~25% in a few months. It's better to be annoyed with missing out on profit than taking a loss of course. When a stock is so volatile like goldies, people's emotions always run high, even though we all have the same purpose, to make money. Good luck to all, one thing we can all agree on, volatility provides the opportunity to make money- key item is the FED this week and any TRUMP tweets, especially on trade will be key leading up to the Oct talks, plus the 23Oct for results here.

[wallywoo] 16/9/2019 08:31

blackrock very often have their own agenda, and manipulate the share price accordingly. I never take any leads off their trading.

CEY have a history of being punished hard for missing production targets. Though having a slow qtr is of no consequence imo. Much more relevant is the continued strength in gold, and their ability to capitalise it (ie large production not hedged, with good exploration upside, and plenty of cash to expand)

[qs99] 16/9/2019 08:22

maybe profit taking? dripping it out doesn't help me thinks, but someone has bought them the other side.....

POG helping, but IMO this looked oversold and if BR are happy now with their position, the next big driver will be update in October DYOR

[lasata] 16/9/2019 08:15

wonder why Blackrock continue to reduce their stake in CEY?

[cinquepercento] 16/9/2019 08:09

Kennyp52.

Thanks for your really comprehensive post,above,KennyP)52.

As per my previous posts,you and others,here are professionals and you know what you are doing.

It seems that those of us here, who are thinking for ourselves and not relying on scaremongering news and posts here,nor on rampers or wishful thinking.....are evaluating the pros and cons and giving it our best shot but not always getting it right.

It seems that both you and Plat Hunter agree that we should not buy a share on the way down.

I will continue to experiment and see what works for me but I will give careful consideration to the various ideas and theories posted here.

All the best.

[kennyp52] 15/9/2019 17:53

Hi Cinque . Been away for a few days so missed your post . In answer to your question... a profit is only on paper until you sell and I have had some big opportunities in the recent past and not cashed in when I actually thought 8%-12% profit was worth taking , got greedy and before you know it the share price starts to slide. With CEY I convinced myself it could / should return to 150 and bought all the way down . Making a few quid here and there day trading . Took a lump out of 1 of my businesses also to buy a load in the 80s - which needed to be repaid by end September to avoid dividend tax so not only when it hit 150 did I not want to lose the profit but also had to take some serious cash back out !! Is this the right way to invest .... absolutely not in retrospect but have done really well out of CEY . My detractors on here still want to believe I made a big loss , etc. etc. but that is just childish nonsense which anyone can work out if you have followed the action in here since last year. Still got a relatively small holding but whether we like it or not it seems easy for the market to devalue this share substantially based on zero change in facts ( unless someone has some insider knowledge ) . But as surely as news can make it drop , good news can get it to rise also . With SRB ( I see a couple of guys posting from off that board in here ) I didn’t know the company as well as I had researched CEY so it was more a case of achieving a 38% uplift in less than a month and not being greedy even though a lot of the guys are calling 100p plus for it.

Should you buy on the way down ? This is where Plat has actually given good advice ( in his acidic sort of way ) ... I wish I had not on several shares .. thinking you are now getting a bargain when you have a 5% drop in a day is dangerous IMHO . If a share has lost confidence it can go a long way before the market buys back in ... why ? ... fek knows when underlying fundamentals justify a much higher market value but if it is being driven down ( fraudulently ??? ) then in future I will try not be so quick to acquire shares early in the drop. Equally a poor RNS for this type of company , even one as big as FRES , I would follow your gut feeling that a poor RNS = share drop and get out quickly then buyback in later when it’s bottomed , even if you have a long term position on it .

It’s not all rosey ... got some M&S , CENTRICA ( fek me ) , LLOYDS , BT ... but all of these in the long term are likely to recover some ground and they pay decent dividends to claw some back . But if you are only getting 1% on bank deposits then wtf .... risk what you can afford to lose 20% of and try to stick to shares that pay a dividend as opposed to penny share gambles unless you know what your doing

CEY results ... no one on here can truly believe the profit figures will be poor unless the production has dropped through the floor ( highly unlikely ) So I still say when these come out , if POG is still riding above $1400 , then I will be holding a reasonable amount of shares and am hoping for 160 . Still got the dividend to come next week also which is a Brucie bonus . Have consistently pointed out this company has zero debt , a cash pile of 300m + and ongoing resource development with Cleopatra, Burkino Faso and Cote D’Ivoire providing significant future potential and if they can get the solar power plant sorted their AISC will be lowered substantially .

Is what it is , drop in share price in my view is just the market playing with it to pick up a bargain before the October RNS but wtf does Kenny know ?

[stevedaytrader] 15/9/2019 09:20

Gold is still good long term. The correction could continue for short term, the FED is crucial the .25 is a must and factored at 90% by most and without this gold will drop, China trade is also key- poor news here in coming weeks will drive higher again. 23Oct is now crucial too- I bailed Friday as held long with some sell/buy trades in the rise from 90 where I stated was a good long but after the end of Feb big drop. For this week, most likely go back in when we start to rise again- I only sold to protect the profits made from the 90 buy. Like all, of course I wish I'd sold on the presentation news on Thurs, but didn't read is at that bad, I thought after Thurs drop that was it, but as we dropped again Friday from 130, was nervous we could keep dropping a bit day after day. You can't always buy at the low and sell at the high, but get somewhere in between and make good profit. Gold price easing has exacerbated this issue- HGM hit, SRB didn't jump as much as I thought following PEA.

[cinquepercento] 14/9/2019 13:45

Good point,Charlieeee

This makes it all the more important to sell on a rising share price,which is 15%? or more from the top or the correction.


We need to anticipate the inevitable correction and act in advance,give ourselves the time and room we will need to get out.

I am not trading CFDs or taking positions,so it is much simpler for me.

[charlieeee] 14/9/2019 11:22

Trough to peak,79 to 154.75 this almost doubled (without any trading on the way).

That has been true of so many of these stocks: same for HUM etc.

The problem for the fund managers is that they cannot trade in and out of stocks in size, without moving the market adversely: up as they buy in and down as they sell out. For that reason, their returns are much more performance based (albeit, entry and exit points are still key in their longer term investment strategy).

[gaffer73] 14/9/2019 09:00

Well if you'd bought CEN three months ago you would have made 30% so it is possible. It's all about the timing and risk.

[cinquepercento] 14/9/2019 01:19

CreditCrunchies,

Thanks for your response to my post on profit taking and for the insight into how you work.

Very interesting.

[trader365] 13/9/2019 23:11

CreditCrunchies To make 20% a year you’ll need to beat the best fund managers in the world. You may want to have a word with Kenny the clown, he claims to consistently make 2% every day! Even Warren buffet can’t beat our clown lol

[creditcrunchies] 13/9/2019 20:51

The problem I have is that I have to meet big targets for my SIPP, the target being 20% gain per annum compounded that includes dividends and capital gains combined. This is my year end. So the holdings in the market and cash vary a lot over the year, stocks like HGM, CEY, and various other PM stocks are used as insurance. This market could crash anytime. This year I fell short target I made 17% compounded on the fund which OK when the FTSE hasn't gained anything over the year it basically collapsed then bounced back making Zero gain.

[creditcrunchies] 13/9/2019 20:30

Cinq people do take profits but they don't post everything what's the point. I've been selling heavily in the past week where my SIPP is currently 60% cash, 40% still in the market. I build up large positions on divi stocks up to £50K a stock in £5K to £10K chunks, then make sure I get the divi then wait for it to rally back up and scale the holding right back down to £10K to £20K a stock locking in the cheapest price. CEY I sold all of it at 143.88p on 5th September. Obviously gold is important as insurance expecially if I have large percentage of stock in the market. Now I don't. All Trump has done for me is allow me to dump all my stock at premium prices with some left because they pay huge divis.

[trader365] 13/9/2019 18:10

He’s enough egg on his face to make an Omelette with

[plat hunter] 13/9/2019 16:59

Kenny has been undone and found out by the looks of it.

Always DYOR research, take your losses, as easily you'do take your profits and always leave something in for the next man.

Hard lesson to learn but an important one

[creditcrunchies] 13/9/2019 16:27

looking cheaper for sure it might be worth getting a few if it gets under the 100 level

[qs99] 13/9/2019 15:40

Or director buying

[qs99] 13/9/2019 15:39

Probably in a close period but need decent update to move it on

[phillis] 13/9/2019 14:27

Is Kenny the only remaining Chuckle bro?

[cinquepercento] 13/9/2019 14:05

KennyP52,

You are a businessman and you know what you are doing,successful etc.

If you had sold,had got back in around 120 and it continued to drop,would you not be be better off?

If you had taken the profits and sold at 145 to 150 or so,would you have had a really useful,high percentage profit or not?

Do you find it difficult,as I have done in the past,to say,"enough is enough?

Is it not better to sell when it is still going up?

Would it have mattered financially to you if you had missed out on an extra 10 to 20% profit?

I try to estimate the highest price,anticipate a correction and sell well before that while it is still going up.
I think it has been said somewhere,"leave some profit in it for the next man otherwise he won't buy it off you."