Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[juju44] 29/5/2018 09:16

Canada move was irrelevant . Only 20+ thousands traded

[astjgroom] 29/5/2018 09:08

These aren't gonna turn until they are seen as super cheap, only then will our recovery begin

[mattcookson] 29/5/2018 09:07

Damn FTSE is crashing again this AM, that’s the reason CEY is down today, otherwise this closed up 5.73% in Canada yesterday, so if it wasn’t for FTSE being down again today, currently .95%, , we would have easily seen a rise of 4-5% here. At current share price this is a solid buy for me. Go find me a company in today’s economic climate with $400M+ in the bank and no debt, this is a hidden little gem. share price will recover nicely over the coming days when the market picks up again.

[karam] 29/5/2018 09:00

Houghton i think you better sell your wife now

[juju44] 29/5/2018 08:58

I took out a long bet but ditched . Not looking so good for now

[tsmith2] 29/5/2018 08:12

support 110 and then 100p

[haughtonhoney] 29/5/2018 07:06

If this goes down any further I shall be selling the wife and going all in.In these frothy, uncertain times where best to park your hard earned than a gold producer that throws off wads of cash (same applies to HGM).

[mattcookson] 28/5/2018 23:39

$426 in the bank + NO debt = BUY!!
Sukari remains a low cost long life asset and CEY retains a VERY strong balance sheet with US$426m of cash and no debt at the end of Q1. CEY is a solid buy at the current ridiculously low SP, this should be at 180p based on 1.2x NAV and 10x CF. Fill your boots first thing tomorrow, while you can :). SOLID BUY! Closed up 5.73% in Canada today!

[juju44] 28/5/2018 21:30

TSX does very little business in Centamin so piddly volume doesn't give the rise a lot of meaning

[ukgeorge] 28/5/2018 20:13

2.40 CAD =1.38639 GBPYes nice turnaround

[karam] 28/5/2018 19:13

In Canada up nearly 6%

[juju44] 28/5/2018 19:04

Tech indicators back on the floor but I couldn't be sure we have seen the bottom. Major disappointment

[ukgeorge] 28/5/2018 17:58

Currently trading at 1.288 in Canada

[jfishy55] 28/5/2018 13:30

Ah, Chris McGlone, good to hear you are still about!

The profit share was part of the original permit to extract gold - it was part of the original deal I.e. Not something that was thought up later to tax the company. Also, it has not increased it over time (perhaps with a view to nationalisation). Indeed, nationalisation would kill the golden goose - no outside investors will invest if their assets will be take.

Also, don't forget that the profit share is in lieu of corporation tax - CEY does not pay corporation tax. Whilst some might argue corporation tax would be less, the reality for the comnpany was that it did not have to pay profit share until it had recovered capex - reducing any need for debt or further fund-raising. Indeed, CEY is debt free & non-hedged.

This makes the company as stable as can be, perhaps withe the exception of the location. However, Egypt - despite revolutions - seems to be fairly stable. The government appears to accept that working with CEY benefits it greatly in terms of cash into the econmy as well as jobs.

Last night, I dreamt that the interim dividend was doubled! I can't see that happening but I am happy to continue to hold for the (revised) yield. Of course, the price of gold can make huge differences...

[keyno] 27/5/2018 11:47

That's not so terrible, is it? 5% or thereabouts with all the potential here seems pretty good to me.

[flopticalcube] 27/5/2018 07:40

Yep. Divi likely to suffer. Probably drop to 5% area.

[zangdook] 27/5/2018 06:47

Forward PE of 16 and dividend of 7% (I have 7.67%) means the dividend is not covered, fwiw.

[flopticalcube] 26/5/2018 18:30

Can't even go on holidays without drama! FFS!

Forward PE is now around 16 by my estimate. Yield is 7%. No debt is a big draw. Profit share is stable at 40% this year going to 45% next year and the year after and then 50% for the remainder of mine life.

CEY survived 2 revolutions intact. Egyptian gov has a cash cow here and will enforce status quo to the bitter end if need be.

Selloff is warranted given the warning but overdone. Mgmt have 1 qrtr to prove this as a temporary blip. Unhappy that they just reiterated guidance a few weeks ago when they must have known about these issues.

The rejection of the compensation plan was almost clairvoyant. Current mgmt must do better to get the carrots.

[justiceforthemany] 26/5/2018 12:06

Was EPS not halved this past year from 19c to 9c due to this handing over of profits? If it was not for this CEY would be a buy. P/E of more than 20 is high compared to others like PAF (forward P/E just FOUR) or HGM around 12.

[jimbowen30] 26/5/2018 09:48

chris,
Glad you are well. I have been invested since 2005 and done very well from CEY. I tend to agree that we will look back on the current price as a massive buying opportunity. It will require patience though and the share price will take a while to recover. Management need to get back on track but at least the gold is still in the ground and they will be producing it for decades to come. In the meantime, I’ll keep picking up the dividends tax free.

[zangdook] 26/5/2018 09:00

justice

do you have anything to support your assertions? They seem unlikely given the evident desire of the Egyptian authorities to encourage foreign investment.

[zangdook] 26/5/2018 08:53

OT brokers

iWeb - £25 to set up an account, no ongoing fees, £5 a trade. Very over-cautious on interpretation of rules eg MIFID II - they won't allow trading in MPO or VLE, for instance, and they seem to interpret ISA rules in a less customer-friendly manner than other brokers.

HL - expensive (£11.95) unless you trade an awful lot and get their reduced rate. Fees of £45 a year, taken monthly from your account with no option of paying up-front or by direct debit. Annoyingly lackadaisical about small-cap corporate actions - they have a habit of taking stocks out of their trading system well in advance and not reinstating them until long after. This has cost me a lot of money and makes them impossible to recommend.

IG sharedealing - £5 a trade provided you make one spread bet or CFD trade, or 10 sharedealing trades in the previous month. Otherwise £8. No set-up or ongoing fees. Their interface is a bit odd unless you're used to their spreadbetting, but since turning to them a few weeks ago in frustration at iWeb, to whom I had earlier turned in frustration at HL, I've had no problems.

edit: outside ISAs iWeb charge £2 to set up or vary a limit order. It's deducted from the commission if the trade goes through, but it puts me off doing non-ISA business with them.

second edit: see here for more detail on IG fees:

[justiceforthemany] 26/5/2018 07:54

All the profit forecasts and P/E ratings are wrong and wild over estimates because they ignore the profit sharing agreement where 40% of profits are paid OUT of the company to the Egyptian Government.

This figure could easily be increased.

In time full nationalisation is possible.

[mattcookson] 25/5/2018 23:36

What you need to understand is that Sukari remains a low cost long life asset and CEY retains a VERY strong balance sheet with US$426m of cash and no debt at the end of Q1. CEY is a solid buy at the current ridiculously low SP, this should be at 180p based on 1.2x NAV and 10x CF. Fill your boots first thing on Tue, while you can :).