Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 04/5/2010 11:12

Moving up now.

[burgerbarwomen] 03/5/2010 10:31

Hi guys

Last couple of nights been watching Cellcast's Freeview channels. Can't see how they can fail to make 1m EBITDA from the UK business this year.

What struck me was that channel 96 starts at 10pm, 7 nights a week. That is prime time viewing. With Freeview in basically every house Cellcast really must have quite a large audience now.

Freeview can only get stronger with the new HD channels. I'd say that channel 96 is the 'smut' channel of choice for many.

If the UK business was floated as it is now (excluding CAH) then it would probably be an IPO of around 20m.

Together with CAH, I consider the current cap of 5m represents a real multi bagging opportunity for risk investors.

I know the history of the business, but things really do appear to be happening now.

[the analyst] 01/5/2010 23:14

thanks fsaints,

Yes, seems they do attract a few 'high rollers' as it were. Would be fascinating to know the detailed KPIs for the business, but somehow I can't see them revealing them to us at this early stage

Still, those articles certainly shed some light on the business, which is good

[fsaints2] 01/5/2010 08:02

here is the address of the 2nd article

[the analyst] 30/4/2010 07:59

Cheers fsaints,

Have you got a link for the second article you mentioned?

I only found this one:

[fsaints2] 29/4/2010 19:48

Thanks for your feedback the analyst ,
a second article from the same site Mid day again quoting quoting Pradeep Menon .

I agree it is hard to calculate the revenue , Read the second article , this maybe bigger than your estimate , this would appear to be obsession with many in India , the call length may be longer , plus this is not the only revenue stream to CAH . Also with the onset of the IPL they were increasing the capacity from 10,000 calls per hour , it is still growing .

THIS IS EXERT OF THE FULL ARTICLE , google pradeep menon cellcast and you find the article

Janaki Viswanathan meets India's burgeoning breed of contest junkies who stay stuck to TV all day long, trawl websites, send mass SMSes, hold the phone for hours...all to win
The contest makers

Pradeep Menon, executive vice president, Cellcast, traces interactive media back to opinion polls.
"It was a one-way interaction though, and the common man had no way of knowing how his vote influenced the poll."

In 2005, Cellcast brought in Bid2Win, their flagship show. It was instant gratification. A caller bidding for prizes would be informed of his win then and there. Bid2Win has clocked 50 million responses and Rs 8 million in revenue.

The main players of Cellcast's games are from small towns, mostly from the north. They like hard cash as opposed to goodies.

For many, taking part in 'call in' or 'SMS' based games is like a business, especially up north. "One man would buy multiple SIM cards just to play. They make calls or send SMSes from dawn to dusk," says an industry source.

[the analyst] 29/4/2010 18:35

Cheers fsaints, that is a great find. Very interesting. I'm amazed at the average call prices of 10-12 rupees per minute, which is around 15-18p per minute! When I had previously seen that figure, I thought that was an exception for a big prize competition rather than the norm

I guess the crucial missing stat is how long the average phone call lasts. Obviously some people will hang up quickly, whereas others might stay on hold for 30 minutes or more...

But, if the average call was just over 8 minutes long, then that would mean around £1.30p per call and gross revenues of £23k per night, which would mean revenues of over £8.3m pa

Based on margins of 55% going to the mobile company, that would give Cellcast £3.7m pa in revenue

We would still need to know the fixed costs of running the company and prize money won to have a decent stab at forecasting the profits for Cellcast, but it all looks very promising - staff are very cheap and the channels say they don't get paid much (presumably, they earn money from adverts shown in between games)

Based on those figures, would £2.5m profit pa for Cellcast seem reasonable? Would be consistent with the $2m mentioned for H2 last year in the last trading update

[topgunns] 29/4/2010 16:13

"Games over" as in market maker games over. Muppet.

[sos100] 29/4/2010 16:07

yeh alright

if thats the case then you really are mad because you've just said its game over..

[topgunns] 29/4/2010 16:03

1% and holding.

[sos100] 29/4/2010 15:54

if thats what u think then your mad to put your money in here!


assuming you've not sold out?????

[topgunns] 29/4/2010 15:48

Games over.

[the analyst] 29/4/2010 15:24

Who knows? Could be MM tricks, perhaps we will see it bounce back quickly? 500k shares from Headstart is not many to get rid of if they have a buyer already. They will move the price back up quickly if they are playing games and they think people have cottoned on to it

Agreed, the thing here that we really need is some sort of trading update. I'd like to see them publish results and update the market on UK operations and CAH at the same time, just so we know where we stand.

If they need to raise more cash to see them though until we get our CAH exit, then so be it, but I would like to hear from the Board on progess

[28shaila09] 29/4/2010 15:14

TA ; I agree with you but mm didn't play trick here today. its the Management who have done the trick by creating uncertainty. Why not make it clear regading whats going on, ie this warrant. I could be completly wrong, but Something is not right here, NC one of the largest share holder selling bucket loads and now management doing this. It seems managment don't want price to go higher, why???? Are they looking buy CLTV back for them selves on the cheap or what?

I think market thinks they are out of cash, hence warrents at souch low price and now it would not surprise me if share price heads towards the 2.75p. I guess mm do not want them to sell those shares at 100% profit...imho.

[topgunns] 29/4/2010 15:08

We have seen a big spike and a new high within the past few days. I think that says it all.

[the analyst] 29/4/2010 15:05

It wouldn't take much for them to reassure the markets. A trading update showing that the UK business is back on track would probably see the share price double or treble again in no time at all

Remember also, that the MMs will play whatever tricks they can to take shares at a low price if they have a buyer lined of for them

Interesting times, as they say...

[the analyst] 29/4/2010 14:41

There are still risks here and no doubt in my mind that past performance of Directors is probably the biggest factor in holding the price back right now

The Directors need to reassure investors that they are working to build shareholder value. They also need to reassure about the cash situation - whilst we are asset-rich (CAH), the last results indicated debt and not much cash in the bank, so we need to know that the UK business is now generating money and paying off any loans.

With regard the Headstart Warrants, I think we need the annual report to clarify where they came from. Unfortunately, they haven't been published yet.

MetaPhysicalMan would be the guy in the know, if he is around? Would be good to get his opinion on the recent selling, warrants and the company in general...

[28shaila09] 29/4/2010 13:57

TA : You make a very good point. I think ppl commnet reflect CLTV managments past history.

Can you shed some light on this perticular RNS, where these warrants come from? Like everyone else I am confused to and cant find any reffrence. You probably are the best person to clear this, as you know CLTV history better than anyone. Thx in adv.

Well, this gives me a opportunity to get some.

[the analyst] 29/4/2010 13:47

I think that the Headstart news means they have been approached by the buyer. I don't think they would spend £15k unless there was demand to take the shares immediately (based on their past trading of AIM companies where they exercise warrants)

It's most likely that this buyer also approached NC too

The big question is WHO is buying these shares?

Price movements, as always, are simply down to samll private investor trades - nothing directly to do with the NC or Headstart warrants, imo

[zangdook] 29/4/2010 12:21

I'd be surprised if the subdivision reduced the exercise price of warrants, since it didn't increase the number of ordinary shares in issue but just reduced their nominal value. Besides, 2.75 is not 1/3 of 8.8.

[3offthet] 29/4/2010 09:50

Lyon
The warrants just exercised were done at a price of 2.75p, so they can't have come from the tranche issued on 02/07/2007, which are exercisable at 8.8p.

Strawbs
Can you plse explain yr post 2865? I have had a good read of the 30 July 2009 RNS, and there is no mention of any issue of warrants of any kind....
TIA.

Personally I am still confused, and wonder how many more of the 2.75p warrants Headstart have up their sleeves...

3OTT

[watchout2] 29/4/2010 09:29

What i mean is you dont want Headstart all over again buying cheap shares
then dumping then onto the market.

Lyon.

Wont be so bad at 8.8p if the shareprice is way over 10p in the future.