Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[watchout2] 22/4/2010 09:02

Overdue a good run.

Can sell a lot of stock at 4.65p online.

[watchout2] 21/4/2010 22:45

TA.

Lets see what happens :-))

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 22:43

Here are the FSA rules, which apply to any company traded on a regulated market:



There is no need to contact your broker, but instead you need to contact the FSA and also the company that issues the shares (in this case, CLTV)

"Since 20 January 2007, shareholders are required to inform the issuer concerned, and simultaneously the FSA, if the issuer is traded on a regulated market, if they have a notifiable interest in holdings of 3% or above of the issuer's total voting rights and capital in issue"

Here is the notification form you need to fill in if you go above 3%:

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 22:38

Seems it must be rife, then lyonst5

I've always kept my holdings under 3% so I don't have to declare...

[lyonst5] 21/4/2010 22:11

TA, i asked you in the past about going over the 3% thing, as i have a friend who cares less and does has he pleases and never he or his broker declared when he is over the 3% mark.

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 22:08

Interesting, thanks Kiop

Is is your broker you are meant to declare the holding to, rather than the LSE?

If it is, I wonder how many companies on AIM have major shareholders that are left undeclared though lethargy on the part of TDW?

[kiop] 21/4/2010 22:02

TA i have twice contacted TDwaterhouse and informed them and they said its noted and then nothing. So i have left it at 1 point i had just over 3.3 million, well over the 3%.

I also had a touch over 3% in another company, again informed TDW but nothing so i leave it now. But i hold 2.9 million.. Paid up CLTV shares..

[lyonst5] 21/4/2010 21:21

So it seems it like it might be time to turn our cards over and come clean.
Ok for better or worse i've finished my buying today, so taking me to just a hair under 3%

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 21:13

Cheers Kiop,

Out of interest, how have you accumulated almost 4% without needing to declare an interest?

Also, have you been approached to sell shares?

[kiop] 21/4/2010 21:09

I hold 2.9 million.

Have sold a few but that was to balance my books on other trades. In total about 400k,

eg the 120000 sell the other day was mine.

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 21:05

Would be interesting to hear from Kiop...

I agree, TH, potentially we are sitting on a gold mine. I just hope the Directors do everything that can to realise value for all holders, rather than the select few.

A price of 100p per share is certainly not out the question in time, if absolutely everything went to plan, but I'm not banking on it, lol!

[thesageofsaint] 21/4/2010 21:01

Whilst he can speak for himself - I believe you will find Kiop still holds. I have seen similar before i.e. a major investor being asked to provide liquidity, acquired by an obvious cahoots party, price held until transfer achieved, seller fully complicit in the facilition of insider stakebuilding which then precipitates a significant re-rating. CLTV so far beneath the average investors' radar that all this goes on under the market's nose.

[trent harris] 21/4/2010 18:13

Did Kiop sell out then? I must have missed that post

[trent harris] 21/4/2010 18:12

Your figures look sensible TA apart from the fact you are basing it on $4m past profit (based on second half 2009) and I think we should be basing it on predicted profits for this current year, which should be much more than that (in my humble opinion). I'm expecting an absolute minimum of $8m profit in 2010

Having already demonstrated 400% growth in revenue in the second half of 2009, I expect to see a big increase in revenue again this year. The company have stated they expect increases too. More TV programs, better efficiency, more mobile users, new language options will all combine to result in spectacular compound growth, imo

Also, they said that costs are fixed, so margins will get bigger and bigger as revenues increase.

So, I would be penciling in at least $8m profit for 2010 and then placing a PE of 20x to give a share price of 50p. That's only based on a 75% increase in sales over the second half of 2009 and a small increase in margins, so it is still very conservative compared to that 400% last year

I would also add another 10p per share for the UK business, the banked losses and the listing, taking my total valuation up to 60p

If we saw sales increasing 150% and margins increased from something like 40% to 50%, then is there any reason we shouldn't be looking at £1 per share?

[watchout2] 21/4/2010 14:04

Coiled spring TA.

If they keep taking 10% at a time of NC stake it will be fireworks soon
just like it was when Kiop bought the last overhang although he quickly
turned seller when it spiked.

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 13:28

So, what price would we expect if there is an offer for the company?

I think it depends on whether an offer would involve the Directors buying out the company or not. They would not want to sell cheap if they are selling out, but if they are acquiring they will want as low a price as possible

Looking at Cellcast Asia alone:

H2 profit = $2m = £1.3m
CLTV's share = £480k
Annualised, CLTVs share of the profit = £960k pa

That has to be worth at least £10m, but with such incredible growth of late in that business along with predicted future growth that is backed up by a huge staff recruitment campaign at the company, a PE of 20x would seem the bare minimum

£960k x PE of 20 = a market cap of £19.2m for the Asian stake

= 25.5p per share for CLTV holders


Of course, it is worth pointing out that things have rarely gone to plan for this company in the past, so what really happens in the future is anybodies guess...

[the analyst] 21/4/2010 13:23

I'm interested to know who is buying. If it's a single investor or institution then they are keeping it quiet, having not declared a major interest in the company yet.

I'm not totally sure, but I think there are rules whereby you only need to declare once you have finished acquiring an order. So, if they put an order in for 29.9% of the company then they might not have to declare until they reach that position (i.e. when the mm transfers the shares across to the investor).

If you add the 4.5m shares that mTouche sold to the stake NC had when he started this latest selling, it totals up to 25%.

Add that to the 29% that the Directors own through their concert party and you have a done deal, imo

[strawberryfields] 21/4/2010 12:31

Plus market yesterday.

750k sell at 4.3p.

1m buy at 4.5p.

Would not rule out an offer.

[the analyst] 20/4/2010 00:24

Cheers zangdook, posting post glass of whisky... removed the "100%" now...

[zangdook] 20/4/2010 00:16

TA
to clarify, I think you meant "I can't confirm 100% the reason for his selling" - it could be taken the other way.
sorry if I'm being pernickety.

[the analyst] 19/4/2010 23:06

Hi watchout2,

Yes Neil Craven has a history of selling, rather than buying AIM shares over the last couple of years

I was told that he got himself into a bit of hot water with margin calls during the last crash and was forced to liquidate huge positions all over the place to make ends meet. He has been selling LNG shares even after becoming a Director over there, which has obviously not gone down well with their investors, but if you are forced to sell, you are forced to sell...

Of course, I can't confirm the exact reason for his selling here, as I have not spoken to him, but several high-profile investors tell me it's continued margin calls on other shares that need paying

Cheers

TA

[watchout2] 19/4/2010 20:07

ps...just looked at those plus trades and older ones, certainly a large
buyer after his stock but why not take the lot in one go instead of chunks ?

[watchout2] 19/4/2010 20:05

I have no doubt the next CAH update will be spectacular but have learned
from DCD that apparent bargains count for nothing if one of the major
shareholders is a seller and a complete wanting out seller, i dont get
it, why is he selling now, is he selling up in his other stocks too, i
cant remember what else he holds but maybe some people here may remember
what other stocks he holds.

Over 10 million shares is still a lot to shift if he wants out completely.

[the analyst] 19/4/2010 20:03

I'm still wondering whether the Directors will decide to take the UK business private and then reverse the Asian business into CLTV

If that happened and we had new management at the helm, I think we would see a share price of over 20p (even if the UK business was nabbed for nothing)