Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 30/11/2017 10:34

Yep always a bit of indigestion on any merger but once the “lock ins” come off things stabilise. The CGT issue adds a little indigestion too but post 1st Jan that will then tighten supply.

So for now we now seem to have stabilised with the cheap sellers gone and those who “might sell” generally wanting a bit more. Now all we need is a steady flow of timely news with no promises that are not deliverable in the timescale.

[togglebrush] 30/11/2017 09:07

Once a upon time this company had a Free float of 17 million shares and now has some 250 million.
‘
Then came the merger. The average daily trade volume changed from 621,325 to 1,577,760. The was in three phases, first up to 2nd October it dropped to 441,796; second phase 2nd Oct when excitement rate increased to 4,199,479 ; third phase 21st Nov rate again increased to 11 million but a maximum of 55 million on 21st effects this 6 day rate. For 129 trading days post-merger the average rate is 1.6 million per day
‘
Meanwhile share prices have been moving very slightly
‘
______Tranche 0___Tranche 1___Tranche 2___Tranche 3__Post Merger Tr 1 to 3
______Pre Merger__to 1 Oct____to 20 Nov___to date____1st June to date
Max_____12.25_____9.88________17.13_______12.50______17.13
Q3______10.50_____9.00________12.63_______11.63______10.38
Median__10.00_____9.00________12.25_______11.50_______9.50
Q1_______9.63_____7.13________11.13_______11.25_______7.88
‘
We have a bigger Free float due to the shuffling of shares. These were often sales of shares which were issued in debt for equity in early years to finance companies development. Two factors influencing sales are the Foreign exchange dramatic change and an incoming Capital gains tax due by New Year.
'
Currently 204 million volume has traded after 1st June ( 100 trading days before merger 64 million traded this year). Very soon, assuming that each trade was buy or sell, then half the free float will have changed hands. That is providing a director doesn’t recall the shares previous given as a grace and favour gift.
‘
At the half free float sold stage the excess of supply over demand will ease and prices begin to trend higher. Add in the CGT tax deadline passing will dampen supply. Hopefully successful drilling and flow tests scheduled will increase demand,. IMHO the share price will be positive for the New Year.

[steveh8] 29/11/2017 23:34

Agreed smarty. It may retrace 1p or so but the only way this can really go is up. Just hope we can get this to a sensible price that I can make a fair bit and exit before any general market correction. Been nearly 10 years now since the last bear run, the dow and ftse can't keep going up forever. That's my only concern, I believe in the assets just hope time is on our side.

[steveh8] 29/11/2017 19:15

Chart looking a bit better Smarty, hopefully they won't offload too many into the market and allow a steady rise up to our first flow update

[xclusive2] 29/11/2017 17:27

That's my point, matching trades. Good to see it's going north and not trashing the price and maybe it continues in this vein until next positive update.

[steveh8] 29/11/2017 17:02

And a 500k at 11.40 just after the bell

[xclusive2] 29/11/2017 17:00

Matching away.

[steveh8] 29/11/2017 15:07

Might be on the move a bit bid/offer raised to 11.5/11.75. The trades marked as sells, the 11.5's and 6's are all buys

[harrissen] 29/11/2017 14:34

The cycle of boom/bust has always been the bogeyman for the small explorer.
The multinationals overproduction causes a glut of oil and gas production which brings the price of oil down below break even for many explorers then the big boys cut back on exploration and use up their reserves to stay solvent while the small companies either go bust or dilute to stay in business.
The small companies that survive then become prime targets for takeover as the multis' rush in to replenish depleted stocks.
I believe we are at that stage again now so that any tiddler with a big discovery on their hands will be able to name their price in the months ahead.

[davidblack] 29/11/2017 13:48

Market cap £190m today's volume £11,500 or the price of a second hand two year old Golf.

Clearly the only people excited by this are the twenty people on this bored board?

Can we have news of A6 or 801 please or even a one week taster on A5 flows?

[xclusive2] 29/11/2017 11:31

Amazing that the volume has disappeared following a couple of large days with off market trades. All the PR focus and the trading volume has fallen off a cliff. The share has been marketed to the PI and Institutional community but maybe they're all fed up of facilitating the seller(s) exit ? Also there maybe less firepower with PI's with poor results on favourite P&D stocks like UKOG and ANGS which have hurt many who have believed the hype. Many of those could have been leveraged and held a position here and forced to sell ?

The good news is that it's allowed people to invest at this level and if the impending news is the right flavour, this will fly. If it is the Kazakhs who are selling, they'll have to take less unless the matched trades continued but this won't last for long and i'm looking forward to Q1 next year.

Re deeps flowing, i think the chance is with A6 but won't be disappointed if they have to do sidetrack on 801/A6. They know the oil is there, just make it flow as per A5.

There's going to be so much newsflow and PR that this will become one of the most talked about and hyped stocks in 2018.

[dipla] 29/11/2017 10:19

im ready for a small top here

[xclusive2] 29/11/2017 10:15

DB,

If A5/6/8/801 & 802 are all winners in 2018, that together with 10 shallows drilled will see us through 2018 and on the shopping list of various acquirers. I don't believe we go beyond 18 months if successful, not long to find out when you've waited 11 years already !

[davidblack] 29/11/2017 09:43

I personally don’t think that they would be willing to sell unless the offer was very generous. For one thing we are a bit early into the next mergeee and acquisition cycle. With big oil having underinvested for really they are going to pay fancy premiums once the process starts. The best premiums aren’t in the early deals but a little later with larger amounts of oil in production. Also best to let Caspian sort out our all the production licences. Even doing that will double or treble the price. The second movers in the M&A game always pay too much! So my bet is a bid when we are at 20,000 to 30,000 bopd.

[harrissen] 29/11/2017 05:41

Why will it not move for another 3 months?

Monthly updates are planned according to Clive in this video below.

He also says another deep well will be flowing before year-end and expects CASP will be paying a divi. within 2 years. And of course we mustn't forget that he has mentioned the possibility of a takeover by one of the multinationals once the production goes up to 10,000 bopd.
Guys like you should listen to the interview with an open mind instead of talking your own book which I strongly suspect is trading on the swings. It is a dangerous game and over 90% of players go skint within a year or less.
Buying and holding is boring for some, but if you can condition yourself to hold you will make some serious money here in the long run imo.



ps
I know you have been here for a long time and understand your frustration but it is a different ballgame now with all the bits finally coming together.

[dipla] 28/11/2017 14:20

This won't move for another 3 months now, surprised the way the market has reacted

[togglebrush] 28/11/2017 06:06

Looked more like a Buy to me,
First Buy; then Cancelled; then Buy with slightly lower volume, value
'
Timedate_latest top__Price_Volume____Value_______Style
'
16:14:19 27-Nov-2017 11.40 1,830,000 £208,620.00 Off-book
16:14:19 27-Nov-2017 11.40 1,850,000 £210,900.00 Cancelled
16:14:19 27-Nov-2017 11.40 1,850,000 £210,900.00 Off-book
;
Third HIGHEST trading day of year so far with ADVFN volume 8,361,599
with by my calculation a traded value just under £1 million

[bullinachinashop3] 27/11/2017 16:48

£200 grand trade a 11.40 marked as a sell?

[davidblack] 27/11/2017 15:37

The Roxy Racing Pigeon became something of a Mucky Duck but hopefully it is now morphing into the elegant Caspian Swan?

On another note it struck me that at the presentation that CC looked very relieved that progress had finally arrived and very happy at the prospect of a decent pay day. He looked like a man who finally had a weight taken off his shoulders.

My other observation is I don't think they will be too keen to sell this on quickly. Once the cash starts flooding in they are going to want to demonstrate that "We were right all along" and there is no better way of saying that than raising production to 10,000, 20,000 or 50,000.

KO looks like a man who has something to prove to his peers. Remember he studied geology at university and that 20 year old probably has a wish to prove that he was as good as the best of them. Also he will make a shed load of money!

Anyway very glad I bought back in here, even if it was at 12.6p, rather than more hurricane at 31p which is experiencing an internal Hurricane so to speak.

One hint that the flow is say 4,500 bopd and the journey upwards will really kick in and my 12.6p will look like a great buy.

I doubt the pipes at 801 are going to be recovered, it will be a side track in the New Year.

[xclusive2] 27/11/2017 14:41

Dipla,

A memory jogger for you (-:

We're 10.5 years on from the admission to AIM in 2007. I was talking to the company pre IPO and that's 11 years ago ! Placing price @ 38p, c170m shares and a m/cap of £64m when the exchange rate on 24/5/2007 was $1.99 !!($128m m/cap)and no BNG acreage!!

Good ole Rob Schoonbrood, David Barker & Duncan McDougal, none of them seeing the good times and only KO and Clive left from the original ragtag team.

Can't remember what the share price got to post IP0, 65p ? but that would have been a m/cap of $220m...lol with only 170m shares in issue. No acreage of real worth, no oil production and no money spent on exploration. Why did i invest....lol

Let's hope our boat is finally coming in.

[davidblack] 27/11/2017 13:56

It definitely looks like the share tidy up is in full swing as they move these assets around ahead of hopefully "Good News" coming from the drill.

[bwakem] 27/11/2017 13:22

WH Ireland target price 28.6p


Company news

Caspian Sunrise *# (CASP) – 90-day production test commenced at Deep A5 well

(WHI Research: Rec: Buy, TP: 28.6 (n/c): Caspian Sunrise has announced today that a 90 day flow test at the Deep A5 well commenced over the weekend. As a reminder, the well was recently tested at a rate of 3,500 b/d vs an initial pre-test success-case expectation of 2,000 b/d. In our opinion, the excellent pressure response (well-head pressure build up to circa 380 bar/5,500 psi) upon shut-in suggests that the well will be highly productive. However, we believe the company and the equity market are taking the view that only a longer-term production test can provide a definitive result. Suffice is to say the company is looking out at a very high-impact near-term catalyst.

There is no definitive rule as to when the company should announce preliminary results from the well test and we believe that for now investors should be keeping a very close eye on developments. We believe that the forthcoming well test will be one of the most exciting developments of any oil & gas company on AIM in recent years. For perspective, Caspian Sunrise can drill deep wells for circa $10M, which based on an initial stabilised flow rate assumption of 3,500 b/d, should be able to produce 10.5mmb of oil, based on our estimates – suggesting the drilling costs per barrel are in the whereabouts of $1.00/b whilst each well is anticipated to provide material future production. Success would open up scope for material exploration/appraisal drilling in an extensive geological fairway.

The stock remains undervalued in our opinion with the current share price of 11.25p (last close) largely supported by our estimate of the value of the company’s shallow assets of 9.6p/sh. The company’s shallow assets also provide scope for future value creation beyond that which we have included in our TP. We strongly endorse our Buy recommendation and retain our 28.6p/sh target price

[fsawatcher] 27/11/2017 12:57

no one buyin this one coz they knows insiders are sellin

the owners doin very iffy deals

i fink they tap market for placin after they sell shares

i dont trust these lot

[dipla] 27/11/2017 12:47

xclusive2 I've been here from day one...