Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[cheol9812] 28/12/2017 08:19

I'm a Korean. Today Korea has ended its stock market this year. I hope to have some good news in the UK tomorrow. I wish everyone happy new year.

[konil] 27/12/2017 20:17

toggle, yes, after today's late action i did think it was probably ongoing. perhaps fri 29th will see the end of it?
however, just want to say i very much appreciate your analysis and thoughts nonetheless!
happy new year.

[togglebrush] 27/12/2017 17:35

Earlier today I may have called the end of Kaz fiscal selling too soon. After trading today this trade timed much earlier has appeared. I haven't seen one this big since Wednesday 29th November. May explain price dive today ???
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Time_____Date_______Price___Volume___Value
08:47:44 27-Dec-2017 9.02 500,000 45,100.00 Off-book Sell

[westmoreland lad] 27/12/2017 16:34

Just got back in for 100k @ 4.15pm after exiting in July '15. Storey looks different today.

[captainfatcat] 27/12/2017 16:25

I hope so smarty

[xclusive2] 27/12/2017 15:27

Somebody still wishing to sell 136k @ c 9p, obviously not believing the story. Can't believe that we're heading to finish 2017 below 10p especially as we entered the year at c10.5p. Lots of positive news in 2017 and yet no increase in company value over 2016 value ? The shallow success came in 2017 and more than underpins our current share price , we are unloved and way undervalued. Going to come good in Q1 2018 and one of the shares of the year.Tick, tock.

[konil] 27/12/2017 14:32

thanks toggle. agree that 24.25 has to be taken out!

yes spikes will be news driven but i anticipate lengthy periods of blackout (despite company noises about lots of newsflow, because they have form to the contrary!) and my guess is these will be periods of flatline.

what i hope for is a rising trend during the blackouts between the spikes, as the market wakes up to the building story with each positive update.

may yet happen, let's see.




happy new year to all.

[togglebrush] 27/12/2017 13:10

Konil: Kaz large scale fiscal selling as such appears to have ended in last week of November. Remains of that overhang created is easing daily. The flat line which covers 2017 shares prices is liable to continue into 2018.
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2018 will have News driven spikes which because of the larger free float created by the merger and the fiscal selling will have added momentum and longevity in each spike. Trading spikes has been a long standing traders habit with this share and will probably continue until the break out when a long lasting upward trend is established.
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That breakout will possibly be signalled by a share price above the recent long standing maximum price (24.25 1st Sept 2014). The timing will depend on quality and quantity of the news. IMHO

[konil] 27/12/2017 12:35

toggle, if one assumes that the kaz fiscally driven selling pressure will cease after 31 dec and also further assumes that the selling has been met with sufficient buying to soak up most of it because otherwise the share price would have fallen much further, then would it not be fair to expect that otbe;
either
the new year will result in buying pressure
or
if the buying drys up at the same time then the share price will flatline.

and if it is the latter, then it lends weight to the possibility that the fiscally motivated sellers were also the buyers, rebasing their holdings to a higher start price for tax purposes. (otherwise too much of a coincidence for selling and buying to stop at the same time?)

what's your take?

[davidblack] 27/12/2017 11:58

801 side track should be underway now? 30 day count down started till we see if their faith in the new drilling method works as well as hoped.

[xclusive2] 27/12/2017 11:52

UKOG, another Fulogas disaster and another AIM con to his name. The best P&D expert does it again. UKOG, ANGS, LGO(CERP, when will punters learn.

[xclusive2] 26/12/2017 20:00

Sporazene,Re Carver without skin in the game. Not unlike most AIM directors I'm afraid and share options being their route to any financial reward. Limerick and his wife are the only ones to have bought.They are ok with cash at c$2.2m pm plus any revenues from A5. They'd have added another $1m for the A5 15 days at 3800. The pressure will come if A5 is a problem and they have to fund A8 at c $10m but that will be over 4 months and can fund from cash flow.2018 will be the defining year for this company.

[togglebrush] 26/12/2017 09:11

Aggregate production from Shallow wells as per RNS in current half year (y end 31 Dec)
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Jul 03___1,280 bopd (MJF structure only 1,130)
Aug 08___1,935 bopd (incl South Yelemes 150 bopd)
Sep 20___3,400 bopd (MJF only)
Dec 14___4,000 bopd (MJF only)
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Sales at $US 16 to $19 net per brl domestic prices
excludes Deep Wells test production
where 2,000 bopd to 3,500 bopd are on occasion mentioned.
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Revenues in US$ for 6 months based on shallow wells for scale
H 1 2016___$US ___896 k
H 1 2017___$US _2,761 k with one month merged company
H 2 2017___$US 10,000 k estimate
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H 2 2018 will be a great improvement
if/when after June 2018 20% sold at domestic 80% sold at World prices less taxes etc

[sporazene2] 26/12/2017 09:02

Many thanks for your insights Konil. Really useful and given the shallow performance and expected reserves upgrade for the shallows it is starting to move into the worth a punt category.

I saw the Chairman doesnt appear to own any shares, ordinarily that would be a major concern, but taken into context of the % of the company that the CEO owns as well as the salaries of the chairman and the CEO, it just seems well a bit odd. Has this come up before?

I guess the other major concern at this point would be the terms they have signed up to in accessing funding from local oil trader, presumably at some point they will need to generate revenue from the deeps or ratchet up production significantly from the shallows.

Thanks again Konil, definitely agree there is plenty of potential upside..

[konil] 26/12/2017 05:12

sporazene, its been a long xmas day and i've had a few, hic, but fwiw, the shallow revenues are funding g&a and ongoing shallow ops. the intention is to forward sell deep production (from a5) to fund further works on other deeps (a6, 801, a8 and possibly another 2 or 3 in 2018).

they recently got a5 to flow after many years of problems and all seemed rosy but when they started the 90 day flowtest it soon went sour due to excessive drilling mud impeding flow rates.

so we await resumption of the a5 90 day flowtest.

its worth noting the following;

- deeps a5, a6 and 801 are already at td so the bulk of the expenditure has been done, but all need remedial works, and the recent hiccup with a5 is indicative of what has been happening for many years, so who knows when things will resolve.

- if they get even one of a5, a6 or 801 to flow commercially its a game changer for casp, and all 3 are still in play.

- newsflow from casp has always been hopelessly optimistic on timescales, so the current share price is a steal simply because the market has lost all faith in the company over the years. the shallow assets alone would probably dictate a share price twice as much at least and the shallow programme continues to go from strength to strength.

- slides 19 and 20 of the latest investor presentation (on their website) illustrate their ambitions, and imo they have downplayed it.

- there have been various transfers of shareholdings from big holders (oraziman) to his kids and since the increase in share price with the good a5 news there has also been a lot of selling from unknown sources, though there is speculation that this is from kaz holders who are repositioning ahead of kaz tax changes coming in jan 2018, so it may end soon. but in the meantime the impact of it all has been to mostly erase the recent gains from the news that a5 was flowing.

- they recently scored something of a coup when they got agreement from kaz authorities to convert to production licence (already scheduled from june 2018 onwards) on a structure by structure basis, because those structures that are 'mature' can be converted to production with the associated increased revenues that brings, without losing exploration rights on other structures where more exploration is required.

i'm a holder but imo its very difficult to find an aim tiddler that's (almost) self funded for game changing ops, so dilution from here can be limited or avoided altogether, and with so many assets to go at, any one of which could transform the company.

oh yes, one last thing, apart from forward sales to local oil traders, they are debt free - yes, debt free!!

[sporazene2] 25/12/2017 21:27

hi, i am new to Casp and am trying to figure out the available cash. they didnt have hardly anything in the interims and it seems as though the shallow wells are self funding and covering G+A . I read they are funding the deep programme through advances and loans before these wells generate any revenue.

Would appreciate any long terms filling in the blanks I have in terms of funding/cash position.

thanks.

[hallow] 24/12/2017 22:56

Happy Christmas Clive

Let's hope it's a good one.

A very Merry Xmas
And a happy New Year
Let's hope it's a good one

[1enigmatic] 23/12/2017 22:27

All the best to all genuine LTH saying that all new holders also apart from HighIQ AKA chinstrap don't think you can wish a snake merry Christmas.

[roy1982] 22/12/2017 17:58

have a good one x2

[xclusive2] 22/12/2017 17:30

Roy..,....lol.One good thing, the oil is there in 3 wells, could have been P&A'd. Been a long time coming but maybe I'll be able to drop the Carverspeak and re-nickname him Ronseal, we can but hope !Merry Xmas all and to a rosy investing future in 2018.

[hallow] 22/12/2017 16:57

29 March 2017

9 months later still no information about anything.

[togglebrush] 22/12/2017 11:20

Merry Christmas
and wishing you
Health, Wealth, and Happiness in the New Year

[cheol9812] 22/12/2017 09:06

Morning all.
After 15 days of testing the 3800bood, why was the drill fluid suddenly a problem?
The fluid used for 3 years ago, or used in a6 is likely to be come on by the change in reservoir pressure. If you work with tubes and the fluid is completely removed, you really expect great big.
merry christmas^^.

[hotdeal] 21/12/2017 17:07

At this rate the Real Enigmatic is going to win the Golden Globe award for the most frustrating share on AIM