Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[grahamburn] 05/6/2018 14:09

Actually, there has been a significant growth in younger cruisers as evidenced by the trend towards larger ships with multiple activity-based offerings on shorter cruises.

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 14:00

But I thought we had an ageing population, so there is your demand growth, is it not.

[grahamburn] 05/6/2018 13:58

To add to DAB26 comment:

Carnival PLC sinks as Morgan Stanley cuts estimates
FTSE 100-travel and leisure company Carnival PLC (LON:CCL) sank to the bottom of the index in lunchtime trading after investment bank Morgan Stanley cut its estimates for the group after a cautious update for the cruise sector.
In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley’s analysts said: “Our channel checks show solid booking volumes but at flat prices, and agents cite concerns about the Caribbean and general Q4 demand.
“We cut forecasts for fuel/FX, with FY19e EPS -11% for CCL, -5% for NCLH and -3% for RCL, and stay cautious on the cruise space due to oversupply risk.”

HOWEVER, back on 7 December Morgan Stanley Proactiveinvestors noted that Morgan Stanley had upped its rating to 'equal-weight' and raised its target price.

Analyst Jamie Rollo said a qualitative survey of US travel agents said November, a traditionally slow month, saw bookings increase at a “rapid pace”

He tempered this by saying the quantitative web research was less convincing, showing mixed results.

Carnival PLC (LON:CCL) was one of the few early risers today after the London arm of an influential American bank upgraded the cruise lines operator's stock.

Morgan Stanley moved its recommendation to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘underweight’, while pushing its valuation 400p a share higher to 5,100p. At 9.45am, Carnival’s equity was changing hands for 4,919p for a rise of 29p on last night’s close.

Analyst Jamie Rollo said a qualitative survey of US travel agents said November, a traditionally slow month, saw bookings increase at a “rapid pace”.

The Caribbean region returned to normal after the hurricanes and demand for Europe and Alaska continued to remain robust, Rollo said in a note to clients.

He tempered this by saying the quantitative web research was less convincing, showing mixed results.

The Morgan Stanley number cruncher also said he is worried about overcapacity.
He pointed out the cruise industry order book has risen to a record 235,000 berths. So, to maintain a 2-3% yield growth, demand would need to expand 8-9% annually, which Rollo said, “seems optimistic”.

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 13:42

Yes, I looked at that and it didn't really resonate with me to be honest.

Clearly the Carnival Dividend Yield this quarter potentially suggests something different - The largest dividend for quite a few years too.

[kirtonender9] 05/6/2018 13:41

Well the oil price appears to be heading lower so maybe they will raise them again in due course!!

[dab26] 05/6/2018 13:18

Morgan Stanley cutting estimates apparently.

For whatever that might be worth...

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 12:32

Yeah, a serious drop today and still falling and 15th being the divi date too - well weird.

I guess there is a reason for it.

[pierre oreilly] 05/6/2018 09:16

Possibly the oil price?I'm not sure it should have such an effect since I expect they effectively buy fuel years in advance.

[pistonbroke1] 05/6/2018 08:38

Blimey why the drop?

[philanderer] 15/4/2018 10:11

Superb exhibition on at the V & A :-)

[toffeeman] 11/4/2018 18:56

Not yet it seems!

[toffeeman] 11/4/2018 11:41

is that 4500 gone?

[toffeeman] 23/3/2018 17:19

which has not held close below a key level today

[toffeeman] 23/3/2018 17:19

which has not held close below a key level today

[toffeeman] 22/3/2018 14:28

Certainly did :)

[toffeeman] 22/3/2018 14:28

Certainly did :)

[johnroger] 22/3/2018 13:24

Results produce a spike in the price!

[toffeeman] 22/3/2018 12:33

If 4600 goes it looks like further to fall - to 4100 - surprised

[pierre oreilly] 09/3/2018 00:32

Morgan Stanley today reaffirms its equal weight investment rating on Carnival PLC (LON:CCL) and raised its price target to 5100p (from 5000p).

[johnroger] 19/12/2017 16:55

Thanks broadwood

Results so good they were worth repeating!

[broadwood] 19/12/2017 15:21

Sorry about duplicate post. Can't seem to remove it.

[broadwood] 19/12/2017 15:10

- Carnival Corporation has reported FY 2017 US GAAP net income of $2.6bn, or $3.59 diluted EPS, compared to $2.8bn, or $3.72 diluted EPS for the prior year.

FY 2017 adjusted net income was $2.8bn, or $3.82 EPS, higher than adjusted net income of $2.6bn, or $3.45 EPS for the prior year.

The Company said adjusted net income excluded unrealized gains on fuel derivatives and other net charges of $224m and previously reported ships, trademark, and goodwill impairments of $387m for FY 2017, and unrealized gains on fuel derivatives of $236m and other net charges of $37m for FY 2016.

Fourth quarter net revenue yields, in constant currency, increased 4.2% compared to prior year, due to better than September guidance of up 1.5 to 2.5%

4Q net cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day (ALBD) in constant currency increased 6.1% compared to prior year, in line with September guidance of up 6.0 to 7.0%.

4Q U.S. GAAP net income was $546m, or $0.76 diluted EPS, compared to $609m, or $0.83 diluted EPS for the prior year.

4Q adjusted net income of $452m, or $0.63 EPS, compared to net income of $491m, or $0.67 EPS for the prior year (adjusted net income excludes unrealized gains and losses on fuel derivatives and other net charges totaling $94m in net gains for 4Q 2017 and $118m of net gains for 4Q 2016).

Voyage disruptions due to hurricanes reduced fourth quarter earnings by approximately $0.11 per share.

President and Chief Executive Officer Arnold Donald commenting on these results:

"We exceeded the high end of our original full year 2017 guidance by $0.22 per share, achieving record cash from operations of $5.3 billion and another adjusted earnings per share record despite a significant drag from fuel and currency. Our full year performance was led by over 4.5 percent growth in ticket prices while overcoming a variety of headwinds, affirming that our core strategy, which is anchored in delivering exceptional guest experiences, driving demand through marketing programs to increase cruise consideration, and introducing new more efficient ships through measured capacity growth all while leveraging our scale, can deliver consistent earnings improvements.

"Despite booking disruptions from this years multiple hurricanes, we are still heading into 2018 with a stronger base of business and higher prices than last year. We have numerous efforts underway to keep the momentum going in 2018 and beyond, from our innovative approaches to increase consideration for cruising, including our recently announced partnership with Univision, to the further roll-out of our state-of-the-art revenue management system. In 2018 we also look forward to the delivery of four new cutting-edge ships, Carnival Horizon, Seabourn Ovation, AIDAnova, and Nieuw Statendam to further our strategic fleet enhancement program."

"We remain on track to achieve double digit return on invested capital in 2018. We are committed to the continued distribution of cash to shareholders through increasing dividends, currently totaling $1.3 billion annually, and ongoing share repurchases, which have exceeded $3 billion since late 2015."

[broadwood] 19/12/2017 15:09

- Carnival Corporation has reported FY 2017 US GAAP net income of $2.6bn, or $3.59 diluted EPS, compared to $2.8bn, or $3.72 diluted EPS for the prior year.

FY 2017 adjusted net income was $2.8bn, or $3.82 EPS, higher than adjusted net income of $2.6bn, or $3.45 EPS for the prior year.

The Company said adjusted net income excluded unrealized gains on fuel derivatives and other net charges of $224m and previously reported ships, trademark, and goodwill impairments of $387m for FY 2017, and unrealized gains on fuel derivatives of $236m and other net charges of $37m for FY 2016.

Fourth quarter net revenue yields, in constant currency, increased 4.2% compared to prior year, due to better than September guidance of up 1.5 to 2.5%

4Q net cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day (ALBD) in constant currency increased 6.1% compared to prior year, in line with September guidance of up 6.0 to 7.0%.

4Q U.S. GAAP net income was $546m, or $0.76 diluted EPS, compared to $609m, or $0.83 diluted EPS for the prior year.

4Q adjusted net income of $452m, or $0.63 EPS, compared to net income of $491m, or $0.67 EPS for the prior year (adjusted net income excludes unrealized gains and losses on fuel derivatives and other net charges totaling $94m in net gains for 4Q 2017 and $118m of net gains for 4Q 2016).

Voyage disruptions due to hurricanes reduced fourth quarter earnings by approximately $0.11 per share.

President and Chief Executive Officer Arnold Donald commenting on these results:

"We exceeded the high end of our original full year 2017 guidance by $0.22 per share, achieving record cash from operations of $5.3 billion and another adjusted earnings per share record despite a significant drag from fuel and currency. Our full year performance was led by over 4.5 percent growth in ticket prices while overcoming a variety of headwinds, affirming that our core strategy, which is anchored in delivering exceptional guest experiences, driving demand through marketing programs to increase cruise consideration, and introducing new more efficient ships through measured capacity growth all while leveraging our scale, can deliver consistent earnings improvements.

"Despite booking disruptions from this years multiple hurricanes, we are still heading into 2018 with a stronger base of business and higher prices than last year. We have numerous efforts underway to keep the momentum going in 2018 and beyond, from our innovative approaches to increase consideration for cruising, including our recently announced partnership with Univision, to the further roll-out of our state-of-the-art revenue management system. In 2018 we also look forward to the delivery of four new cutting-edge ships, Carnival Horizon, Seabourn Ovation, AIDAnova, and Nieuw Statendam to further our strategic fleet enhancement program."

"We remain on track to achieve double digit return on invested capital in 2018. We are committed to the continued distribution of cash to shareholders through increasing dividends, currently totaling $1.3 billion annually, and ongoing share repurchases, which have exceeded $3 billion since late 2015."