Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Carnival Plc LSE:CCL London Ordinary Share GB0031215220 ORD USD 1.66
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -92.40 -11.83% 688.40 1,364,946 11:57:21
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
687.60 688.40 747.60 683.40 746.80
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 1,434.92 -7,161.07 1,081
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
11:57:21 AT 33 688.40 GBX

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29/6/202211:41Carnival - cruising higher4,397
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Carnival Daily Update: Carnival Plc is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CCL. The last closing price for Carnival was 780.80p.
Carnival Plc has a 4 week average price of 641p and a 12 week average price of 641p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,797p while the 1 year low share price is currently 641p.
There are currently 157,023,602 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,630,778 shares. The market capitalisation of Carnival Plc is £1,080,322,381.76.
smurfy2001: Carnival: Positive Trajectory Jun. 24, 2022 6:06 PM ET Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Carnival reported FQ2'22 results showing a positive trajectory in the business, though far from perfect. The cruise line indicated strong booking trends for 2023 as consumers are able to plan for trips without worries of travel restrictions. The stock is cheap at $10 with normalized earnings at $3 per share, as debt is repaid and interest expenses are cut. In no huge surprise, Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) reported a quarter of improving results. The largest cruise line didn't report a perfect quarter, but the company and the sector continues to head back to more normal times in the travel and leisure sector. My investment thesis is very Bullish on the stock after the dip back towards the COVID lows, which was ill-timed considering the dynamics of the business are far improved now. Positive Trajectory As already discussed on previous research on Royal Caribbean (RCL), the cruise line sector reached an inflection point in the Spring with a return to positive cash flows. The companies no longer are heading down a path of burning cash and needing to raise additional funds. The only question now is the level of cash flows leading to debt repayments in the future. In no surprise, FQ2'22 ending in May was all about the company restarting guest operations and filling up boats. Carnival reported that May quarter occupancy reached 69%, and 91% of capacity was back to cruising in June with strong bookings reported for future periods. During the quarter, the cruise line only averaged available lower berth days (ALBDs) at 74% of total fleet capacity in a sign of how far the business was still from reaching a full recovery until the current quarter. Similar to the airline sector, the cruise lines are now back to near normal operations with capacity slightly below 2019 levels and ultimately headed higher by 2023. The only question is how packed the cruises will be going forward. For FQ2'22, revenues were up 50% from the prior quarter to $2.4 billion. Carnival still reported a large loss due to the low occupancy in the quarter and restart of operations on several ships leading to higher expenses without the full revenue benefits. The company was cash flow positive due to a large $1.4 billion increase in customers deposits for future sailings. The total customer deposits are now $5.1 billion. Back in 2019, May quarterly revenues were $4.8 billion with customer deposits up at $5.8 billion. Clearly, Carnival still has a lot of work to match 2019 levels in a sign that cash flows still have plenty of upside ahead. As such, the market shouldn't spend too much time focused on the past quarter results with Carnival spending most of the period restarting operations. The cruise line has already increased fleet capacity from 74% as an average for last quarter to 91% for the current quarter pushing the cruise line close enough to full capacity to produce solid financials. Similar to the airlines, Carnival should be able to boost occupancy levels with capacity below 100%. The market sold off the cruise line stocks over the last month on fears of lowered bookings with recession risks perking up. Carnival admitted some mixed view on near term bookings, but the long term picture was strong with these following nuggets in the earnings release or call: Booking volumes for the second half of 2022 sailings, since the beginning of April, have been higher than 2019 levels. Cumulative advanced bookings for the full year 2023 continue to be both at the higher end of the historical range and at higher prices, with or without FCCs, normalized for bundled packages, as compared to 2019 sailings. Currently, we are seeing success for close-to-home cruises, with many sailings achieving occupancy at or above 100%, where guests perceive far less friction than with international embarkations. In fact, our Carnival Cruise Line brand, sailing its entire fleet, is expected to reach nearly 110% occupancy during our third quarter. A big reason for the improved booking in the 2H of the year and into 2023 are the relaxing of COVID restrictions, both for flying to foreign embarkments and just general testing restrictions for domestic trips. While the market is focused on some of the noise around recent ship occupancy trends, the trend remains tied to far more normalized bookings in the future. Bargain Bin A lot of investors were hesitant to purchase Carnival on the rally during 2021 on valuation fears with the enterprise value topping pre-COVID levels. Due to the higher debt levels and shares outstanding, the market felt cruise line stocks shouldn't match those prior levels on this key metric. With the recent dip, Carnival now has an EV of ~$40 billion below the $45 billion level pre-COVID. Investors need to be careful using such a metric because the number doesn't accurately reflect the financial position of companies with large asset balances acquired via debt. Carnival ended May with a cash balance of $7.2 billion and a debt position of $35.1 billion leading to a net debt position of $27.9 billion. The company now spends about $400 million on quarterly interest expenses, above the $50 million pre-COVID. The cruise line has to eliminate a lot of the debt to reduce the interest expenses and boost EPS. Still, the positive indications from the quarterly report appear to set up Carnival to return to the earnings path from a few months ago where 2024 EPS targets were above $2.40 per share. The stock was trading below $10 and this is all investors need to understand. Carnival trades at only 4x EPS targets still out a year, but more inline with normalization trends. Remember, Carnival has the potential for a massive boost to EPS by cutting the interest expenses by over $1 billion annually (net interest expenses were only $200 million pre-COVID). With the share count at 1.14 billion shares, the EPS boost from lowering interest costs alone is at least $1. The additional share count limits the EPS potential to closer to $3.00 in comparison to $4.50 pre-COVID, but the stock trades at only $10 now compared to $50 pre-COVID. The risks of a recession induced slowdown shouldn't be ignored due to the massive debt levels now, but investors shouldn't misplace fears when signs of a travel slowdown don't actually exist due to pent-up demand. Takeaway The key investor takeaway is that Carnival remains on a positive trajectory towards a full recovery. The market is too focused on recession fears while pent-up travel demand remains strong. The cruise line appears poised to recover the majority of their prior business suggesting a much higher EPS ahead, even if it doesn't match the pre-COVID levels due to higher debt levels and share counts. The stock is just too cheap at $10 with a full recovery insight. Source:
grahamburn: Carnival is reviewed in the Tempus column in The Times today. It's a downbeat analysis, but does indeed chime with my view expressed here last night that its debt pile and inevitable projected losses in the medium term will prove a drag on its share price for some time to come. The main conclusion is: "ADVICE Avoid WHY It looks increasingly as if 2022 is going to be a year to get through, and it will be worth waiting to see if things look better for next year" Obviously not possible to provide the full article on here due to copyright issues - that is here but behind a paywall: but here are few selected quotes: "The retiring chief executive of Carnival made a telling distinction when presenting the cruise operator’s latest update on Friday. “While not recession-proof,” Arnold Donald said, “our business has proven to be recession-resilient.” However, like the difference between waterproof and water-resistant watches, this raises questions about how resilient it might be and how long it will take to shake out a recession’s pernicious effects....... While the shares of most consumer-facing companies achieved at least a half-hearted V-shaped recovery that year, Carnival’s have chugged along between 614p and £18. They closed yesterday at 761½p........ Dig down and Carnival admits that Covid and its effects are having “a material impact on the company’s business”, both in terms of bookings and staffing...... In the three months to May.... it suffered a net loss of $1.8 billion, compared with a $2 billion loss this time last year....... Revenue of $2.4 billion was nearly 50 per cent up on a year ago. Occupancy was 69 per cent for the March-to-May period, compared with 54 per cent for December-to-February. That is a vital number, because of Carnival’s high fixed costs in the shape of its fleet. Bookings for the rest of the year are below average, despite discounts. It expects a net loss for the third quarter and for the full year. This is a step back from the first-quarter announcement in March....... Carnival’s gross margin has been below the industry average for five years. Debt has tripled to $35 billion since December 2019, as it struggled to service a fleet that has been idle for much of that time. And now interest rates are rising. “We remain concerned about high leverage and refinancing needs, high industry supply growth dampening pricing power, and the macro outlook,” Morgan Stanley said. Resilient to recession Carnival may be, but when inflation and interest rates are rising, supply chains are erratic and the world is having to become accustomed to a possibly lengthy war, that resilience is limited. Cruises, and shares in them, are eminently postponable purchases."
jan-mar: What you say is factually correct but even the brokers can see the upside in share price, even though they can't agree on what priceShares of cruise operator Carnival Corp fall 4.2%to $10.39* Analysts see co's bigger-than-expected Q2 loss as evidence that higher fuel, labor and consumable costs will impact short-term operating performance and margins* Stifel cuts price target on stock to $20 from $30 due to higher fuel costs and expectations that onboard spending will take a hit during a potential recession* Jefferies says CCL's high debt load also poses a risk in rising interest rate environment; Cuts PT to $12 from $19* 6 of 23 brokerages rate the stock "buy" or higher, 12 "hold" and 5 "sell"; their median PT is $18.50* CCL jumped 6.2% on Friday when it said it expects bookings for the whole of 2023 to be at the top end of its historical range...
jan-mar: CARNIVAL UKGood morning,I'm sure many of you will have been watching our share pricemovement with interest and be keen to understand more abouthow the company is performing.With many of our ships having now returned to service across thecorporation you can learn more about our business' performanceby listening into the second quarter business update at 15:00,today (24 June). This update is available as a webcast toshareholders and employees across the globe.Join the webcast using this linkAs you know we're taking more and more positive steps forward atCarnival UK, particularly with Arcadia's return on the horizon andthe removal of pre-departure testing on lona, but this is youropportunity to find out more about our sister brands. I'd thereforeencourage you to take this chance to learn more about our widercorporation, as a whole.Kind regards,James ChedgeyChief Financial Officer and CUK Sponsorumber and wih registered office st @smiys! House. 100 Harbour Parade Southsmoton Song as
pierre oreilly: Easy solution to the CCL share price. Go on a 4 week cruise, buy the drinks package, don't buy the internet package. A month of bliss.No one else taking advantage of the dirt cheap QM2 mini cruise? Balconies all gone, 4 insides left after we got one. 14 Oct. It's a special with
pierre oreilly: Why were ccl 35 quid once? Well, ignoring the price they paid for a cruise, because of a special £30 per day offer for drinks and tips, most on my recent cruise took up that offer. Say 75% of 3500ish so say 3k. 3k*£30 = 90,000 per day mainly for drinks. The cost to ccl was the tips they gave the staff, say max 20% of that, so say 70,000 per day from this offer. Cost of drinks to ccl, probably a grand (no tax, and alcohol is cheap especially in bulk). So at least 60k per day profit from that offer. (and it's for the full 12 days of the cruise). That's a run rate for one boat of half a mill per week of 26 mill pa. Captive market, ccl make masses of cash everywhere you look. As to those £100 tours and photos ... they are just a cash machine. Sure, they've run up debt over the last couple of years, but they'll soon cover that. The £30 pd offer has now been replaced with a £40pd offer. Most you talk to think they've really got a bargain - I just think it's brilliant marketing. For anyone interested Princess are still doing the free money future cruise deposit - we bought 4 of those. As to being up market - i'd say Princess is even below p&o and well below Cunard. Several things went wrong due to staff shortages, but still a brilliant cruise and exceptional value for money. A year's worth of smoked salmon, king prawns, filet and forerib naturally consumed. Cheapish offers still for the round uk cruise if you can go in the next few weeks. Scotland especially is really beautiful from a boat.
jan-mar: I don't think the share price reflects the performance of the company, the decline is across all markets and shares. All ships are back sailing, unless every single one is making a loss, which I doubt. The company will have to make some sort of statement about the share price with the company update for quarter two ( end of June).
technowiz: consumer spending slowdown, debt with interest rate rises coming. this is why share price is down. happy times if you are getting a 10% interest on debt. aren't CCL paying a whopping 10% interest rate on some debt?
technowiz: its hit $11.60 in US trading that around 850p I think. Possibly it bounces in US trading this evening and we don't see 850p tomorrow. DOW was down 500 pts at low now only down 135. but no bounce in CCL share price $11.68 wtf 9c off the lows.
tell sid: CCL share price could tripple by Q1 2021 ahead of resumption of cruises in April following vaccine rollout.
Carnival share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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