Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[tlobs2] 11/2/2020 14:56

Pierre, we met an older guy on a cruise a few years ago.

One of his reason for booking a cruise other than meeting fellow passengers was that there was medical assistance on tap twenty four hours a day. When he first told me I thought he was kidding.

[tlobs2] 11/2/2020 14:54

Share price surging over in the US. It looks like they understand the cruise business more than our resident doom monger....

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 14:52

twh, Everyone who cruises already accepts the risk of norovirus. If it kills them, so be it. When I'm 95 the thought of kicking the bucket on a cruise and saving the torture of a care home is extremely attractive.

[the white house] 11/2/2020 14:41

As the legend Jimmy Cramer said 10 minutes ago...would you like to check into a floating hospital??..would you want to check into a 3,4,7 day cruise...the CDCs page is like a HORROR SHOW...

[the white house] 11/2/2020 14:37

You didn't say please...

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 14:31

twh, you were keen to tell us you were short, yet when i asked how much pp you were betting, you didn't answer.

Well, being so far out of the money, you must be a penny a pointer. If you were a serious shorter, you'd be closed out at this level of move against you, else have very deep pockets and a counter-trader mentality to further back losing positions.

Not sure why you think another coronavirus case is going to trash ccl. There'll probably be thousands more - look forward to you detailing each one.

[lefrene] 11/2/2020 14:27

Pierre Oreilly, one would hope that they would, but there's always fear of losing market share to the competition, and hubris to account for in decision making. Although a different arena the housing crunch of 2008 was no doubt built up under 'computer modelling', but it made no difference. New York is about to open, lets see how sanguine US investors are.

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2020 14:22

Lols. An optimist, eh. Or may be a realist.

Norwegian has minimal China exposure, it's not LSE listed from memory.

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 14:21

lefrene, do you think every cruise company which is increasing its fleet are doing it without very careful analysis that passenger numbers are growing sufficiently to fill the boats?

We have an ageing population, and almost all can afford a cruise each year. Cruises are phenomenal value - no longer expensive, and ime even benefit claimants can afford a couple pa (for the disab benefit plus carer dynamic benefit duo - ime, p&o are 50% filled by those).

More or less a lot of fixed overheads with an expanding market - that's what you look for in investing.

A week in Faulty Towers in the uk seaside with terrible service, or, for the same cost, an all inclusive cruise taking in some fantastic sights with excellent food and service unknown in the uk outside the Savoy?

[the white house] 11/2/2020 13:54

Which Carnival ship would you prefer, to book, the one where they have tested just 470 out of 4700 and 160 are positive or the one where 4+ countries won't let you dock and infect their country and docking is running way overdue...tough callnb Another positive case found in Chichester Hospital that is being kept secret...Enjoy you solitary up day, and chance to all post, this remains a one way bet

[tlobs2] 11/2/2020 12:24

If you wait until "Coronovirus is a distant memory" then you'll be paying £45 - £50 a share.

I added more earlier today and will hold for a tidy profit and a few dividends.

IMHO

[awise355] 11/2/2020 11:44

Hi, the three year chat looks horrible - why has Carnival shares declined so much on a macro level - was looking to invest for a time when Coronovirus is a distant memory but looks like a systemic decline

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2020 10:05

Agree the best prices are often seen during uncertainty, rather than a cheery consensus. Once the company concerned is fundamentally sound it can be profitable
going against prevailing caution.

No post here makes the slightest difference to the SP, the majority of CCL shares are
traded on the NYSE in any case. The price is largely determined by US investors.

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 10:02

Not as uncomfortable as those with naked shorts feel ATM.

Anyone admit to any nuisance calls yet?

(That's their broker asking them to increase their margin, or getting forcefully closed and being persued for the balance).

[its the oxman] 11/2/2020 09:53

Buy on the fear and hold tight to make the biggest gains. Just never feels wholly comfortable at the time.

[dandu69] 11/2/2020 09:53

haha, thanks for the input guys. I like the look of these owing to good dividend cover and increasing.

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 09:51

Soz, spell checker changed dandu to Randi!

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 09:50

Randi, it will have an unknown effect on the figures to be reported in about 18 months time. They cost will be taken as exceptional. Share pricing almost always ignores exceptionals and fully relies on ongoing operational profit. The cost will be one 20/30/40m minus their insured costs.For those not trading by the minute and hour to make a tenner, these will soon resume their way back to their 5 quid highs in the following months or year when the scare dies down.

[tlobs2] 11/2/2020 09:39

They will be insured against this type of issue dandue.

[dandu69] 11/2/2020 09:35

Thanks guys, all valid points. I read that all the passengers on the stricken ship will get a full refund and a free cruise at some point in the future as a way of compensation. This will have a big impact on figures so may hold off until the next results are announced.

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 09:24

Highlight of the Carribbean for me was maho beach in st Martin, where the aircraft fly just above your heads when landing. When taking off, they sandblast you, painful if the skin is tender due to the sun. Probably not interesting if you're not into aircraft!

[tlobs2] 11/2/2020 09:17

For me a cruise is one of the safest holidays available.......

As for the share price, Carnival are a well run profitable operation. I see upwards of 30%-50% from here within six months once all the scaremongers crawl back under their stones....

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2020 08:42

It's not far off 50% of its highs, and down a lot in the last four weeks. Seems to have lots of shorters talking their book, all staring at the screen all day mindful of unlimited losses.Prices generally discount two years, by which time, the current scare will be well into history.Just as people still fly in aircraft, travel on the tube, coaches and buses, go to the theatre, football matches, doctors' surgeries, people will still cruise .... in growing numbers. A blip, an opportunity imv.