Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[muffinhead] 25/6/2018 18:58

Is it cheap?
This Friday is end of quarter...quarterly candlestick chart. Suggests peaked 12 months ago

Major support 3300
Minor support just below 4000

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[muffinhead] 25/6/2018 18:33

Today, apart from H1 results.......
“In the West you have the notion that if somebody hits you on the left cheek, you turn the other cheek. In our culture we punch back." - Xi Jinping


Pretty decent results, so must be a sell the future day

[losos] 25/6/2018 13:04

Optimist and others - Thanks for your thoughts on cabin sound insulation, yes I'm sure you would be unlucky to find a 'moron' in the next cabin haha. I agree with all about the growth in passenger numbers, there are a few headwinds (Oil price etc.) but the best companies in the business should prosper, I leave it to others to decide which those companies are. I still might invest in Carnival but not right now.

[danieldanj] 24/6/2018 23:37

Carnival (CCL) Earnings-Reaction to Keep an Eye

[andrewbaker] 08/6/2018 14:26

Regardless of the cruise experience, the business itself is just not being run well. People like to cruise Carnival, and 'staff' like to be on the ships (though I can't find comment on what it is like to be office staff on shore), yet the share price is suffering.

Returns are dropping, debt is high, and there may well be a glut of cruise ships resulting in less capacity sold going forward. Like so many areas of commerce, when a rise is seen in a particular area, people flock to be in that business area; with the result it becomes overpopulated. That is what seems to be happening in the cruise market. And the lead time between committing to and ordering new ships is quite long, yet cannot easily be gotten out of when the pot stops boiling.

Look at these cruise businesses and which lines they own:

Carnival Corporation & plc

AIDA
Carnival Cruise Line
Costa Cruises
Cunard Line
Holland America Line
P&O Cruises
P&O Cruises Australia
Princess Cruises
Seabourn Cruise Line

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Azamara Club Cruises
Celebrity Cruises
Pullmantur Cruises
Royal Caribbean International
SkySea Cruise Line
TUI Cruises

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Norwegian Cruise Line
Oceania Cruises
Regent Seven Seas Cruises

Whilst some of these are 'up market,' they generally compete with each other: so too many ships for the numbers booking, is a major problem. I see that that is what's happening now - just look at onboard prices now, in order to up the revenue - and therefore will cut my exposure to this area until there is an improvement, which will be in a few years, at least.

(The line I cruise on - except when cruising with my family, which includes 11 and nine year old sons, and all others other than me being under 54 - is Silversea.)

[shinydoc] 06/6/2018 15:34

Agree with Grahamburn, the sound proofing is generally excellent and these are all modular now and just wheel in and plug together. You may have seen it on the TV recently - hxxp://www.channel4.com/programmes/building-giants/on-demand/65485-004 very interesting and well recommended if you are interested.

In my experience the noise comes from within the cabin! Creaks, mini bar rattling etc and the gentle drone of the AC; which I actually quite like!

Fortunately, the monumental drop is not continuing today, although it is still lower.

[grahamburn] 06/6/2018 15:20

Agree.

Sound proofing between cabins and between decks tends to be excellent.

[optimist] 06/6/2018 14:46

Losos

I think you worry too much. In all the not insignificant time that I have spent cruising, I have never experienced a problem with rowdy neighbours.

[toffeeman] 06/6/2018 14:29

I think the key reason(s) for the fall extend beyond xr and oil price.

Oil is about 10% of the cost of operation and they have hedging in place. If the price of oil rises by 30% then it goes up to 13% of total costs.

So the customer spend would need to rise by $49 for a 7 night cruise - not a significant problem methinks.

[losos] 06/6/2018 14:21

Pierre Oreilly / Shinydoc - I have been looking at CCL for some time, might take the plunge soon.

Your posts (1316 & 1317) have highligted something which makes me wary of booking a cruise. If you book a hotel and your adjacent rooms are occupied with - how shall we put it - cretins then you just book out and move to another hotel. If the same happens on a ship you're stuck, where can you go haha.

[shinydoc] 06/6/2018 10:38

Well said Pierre, and the cynic and contentiousness in me says that some of those, even potentially people on benefits (!), even have shares and get additional benefits too, presumably like we all do too :o)

[pierre oreilly] 05/6/2018 20:02

i can really see demand for p&o filling their new boats simply from them now being available - how do i put this - lower down the social scale. Long before i went cruising, p&o was the preserve of the rich, but now you certainly don't have to be rich to go with them. Many old style cruiser complain about the drop in standards (but don't mind the drop in prices!). I'd say that those on some benefits can afford p&o, and my experience is many do. I'm not passing judgement, just stating facts as i see them.

of course, that drives those who don't like that situation onto cunard, so to me it looks like shareholders gain both ways.

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 14:22

Couldn't agree more and apparently the average age of a cruise ship passenger globally is 46, the lowest age seen in 20 years.

In the UK and Ireland, this age rises to 55, which is the lowest reported for the region since 2011.

[grahamburn] 05/6/2018 14:09

Actually, there has been a significant growth in younger cruisers as evidenced by the trend towards larger ships with multiple activity-based offerings on shorter cruises.

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 14:00

But I thought we had an ageing population, so there is your demand growth, is it not.

[grahamburn] 05/6/2018 13:58

To add to DAB26 comment:

Carnival PLC sinks as Morgan Stanley cuts estimates
FTSE 100-travel and leisure company Carnival PLC (LON:CCL) sank to the bottom of the index in lunchtime trading after investment bank Morgan Stanley cut its estimates for the group after a cautious update for the cruise sector.
In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley’s analysts said: “Our channel checks show solid booking volumes but at flat prices, and agents cite concerns about the Caribbean and general Q4 demand.
“We cut forecasts for fuel/FX, with FY19e EPS -11% for CCL, -5% for NCLH and -3% for RCL, and stay cautious on the cruise space due to oversupply risk.”

HOWEVER, back on 7 December Morgan Stanley Proactiveinvestors noted that Morgan Stanley had upped its rating to 'equal-weight' and raised its target price.

Analyst Jamie Rollo said a qualitative survey of US travel agents said November, a traditionally slow month, saw bookings increase at a “rapid pace”

He tempered this by saying the quantitative web research was less convincing, showing mixed results.

Carnival PLC (LON:CCL) was one of the few early risers today after the London arm of an influential American bank upgraded the cruise lines operator's stock.

Morgan Stanley moved its recommendation to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘underweight’, while pushing its valuation 400p a share higher to 5,100p. At 9.45am, Carnival’s equity was changing hands for 4,919p for a rise of 29p on last night’s close.

Analyst Jamie Rollo said a qualitative survey of US travel agents said November, a traditionally slow month, saw bookings increase at a “rapid pace”.

The Caribbean region returned to normal after the hurricanes and demand for Europe and Alaska continued to remain robust, Rollo said in a note to clients.

He tempered this by saying the quantitative web research was less convincing, showing mixed results.

The Morgan Stanley number cruncher also said he is worried about overcapacity.
He pointed out the cruise industry order book has risen to a record 235,000 berths. So, to maintain a 2-3% yield growth, demand would need to expand 8-9% annually, which Rollo said, “seems optimistic”.

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 13:42

Yes, I looked at that and it didn't really resonate with me to be honest.

Clearly the Carnival Dividend Yield this quarter potentially suggests something different - The largest dividend for quite a few years too.

[kirtonender9] 05/6/2018 13:41

Well the oil price appears to be heading lower so maybe they will raise them again in due course!!

[dab26] 05/6/2018 13:18

Morgan Stanley cutting estimates apparently.

For whatever that might be worth...

[shinydoc] 05/6/2018 12:32

Yeah, a serious drop today and still falling and 15th being the divi date too - well weird.

I guess there is a reason for it.

[pierre oreilly] 05/6/2018 09:16

Possibly the oil price?I'm not sure it should have such an effect since I expect they effectively buy fuel years in advance.

[pistonbroke1] 05/6/2018 08:38

Blimey why the drop?

[philanderer] 15/4/2018 10:11

Superb exhibition on at the V & A :-)