Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[2350220] 31/8/2020 11:04

Hello all,
I'm not invested here yet, but just wanted to read up this thread after reading Ian Cowie's piece in the financial section of the Sunday Times (p13).
I am invested in Integumen (SKIN) though and they might well be a Saviour of the cruise industry. At least, that's what we're all hoping.

They're close to making a real time piece of kit for testing human waste, to alert for Covid, Noro, Ebola and many other viruses.
The idea would be to have a device on each deck, continuously monitoring each deck's sewage to initially warn the crew of any outbreak. Then to use another device to narrow the outbreak to individuals.
That's the plan at least, so for the sake of my own investments and for all of yours here too, I hope that we're on the right track.
All the best,
John

[babbler] 27/8/2020 07:50

6x horrendous RNSs

[onehanded] 25/8/2020 09:40

Vaccines and extended treatment coming. Load up the cruises for next year.

Mene Pangalos, Executive Vice President, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, said: "This trial is an important milestone in the development of our monoclonal antibody combination to prevent or treat COVID-19. This combination of antibodies, coupled to our proprietary half-life extension technology, has the potential to improve both the effectiveness and durability of use in addition to reducing the likelihood of viral resistance."

Should AZD7442 prove to be tolerated and have a favourable safety profile in the trial, AstraZeneca will progress it into larger late-stage Phase II and Phase III trials to evaluate its efficacy as a potential preventative and treatment approach against COVID-19.

[onehanded] 24/8/2020 17:18

it's coming the vaccine, the cruise cash cow will start. ,More debt that before but still £20 at anyone value.

[justiceforthemany] 24/8/2020 12:29

China and Russia both already have viable Covid vaccines and have started mass vaccination programmes.
Pfizer vaccine approval come October.
Astrazeneca November.

[onehanded] 24/8/2020 07:16

Yes see WHO say 2 years to see back of virus, and that's if no vaccine. That's from outbreak, so at most 14 months max. Could start to see buyers and closing of any shorts in the coming months. I have £15 to £20 as a first target this year. We will see....

[justiceforthemany] 23/8/2020 18:03

CARNIVAL TO RESUME EUROPEAN OPERATIONS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER
- BARRONS

[sambuca] 20/8/2020 20:03

Good news from Cruise Critic.


MSC Cruises Restarts Cruising in the MediterraneanD J I 0078
August 16, 2020

Adam Coulter_130
Adam Coulter
UK Managing Editor
(5:08 p.m. EDT) -- MSC Grandiosa today became the first ship from the MSC Cruises fleet to restart cruising in the Mediterranean after a five month pause.
The 6,200-passenger ship which will embark and disembark around 2,500 passengers over the course of the week, set sail from Genoa today and will call in at Naples, Palermo and then Valetta in Malta, before returning to Genoa on Sunday.
MSC Grandiosa is the first ship to to implement the line's strict health and safety protocols, which include universal health screening at embarkation, daily temperature checks, a health questionnaire and increased and enhanced sanitation onboard.

"It is a real pleasure for me to be here and sail on board the first of our ships to return to service and to be able to welcome back our guests," said Gianni Onorato, MSC Cruises' CEO.
"Our main goal during these last months has been to put in place the right measures that will protect the health and safety of our guests, crew and the communities we visit.


"But at the same time, we have worked to ensure that we are able to provide our guests with a cruise holiday that they can enjoy and still experience all of the elements that they know and love from entertainment and activities on board through to protected ashore visits.”
The first guests began embarking the flagship this morning, arriving at the cruise terminal according to their allocated time slots and followed the new universal screening procedures.
All guests received a complimentary MSC for Me wristband, which provides them with contactless options whilst on board such as opening the cabin or making payments and will also help to facilitate proximity and contact tracing, if needed.

Additionally, over the past several weeks, all crew members have gone through similarly stringent health screening measures, which included three COVID-19 tests in various phases as well as a period of isolation before commencing their duties. Each crew member will then be regularly tested and their health monitored.
The line joins TUI as the first big ship line to resume cruising in Europe, as well as Dream Cruises in Taiwan.

German line Aida is due to resume cruising shortly, and a number of other smaller lines have also restarted, including Variety Cruises, the first line to resume operations in the Eastern Med.
MSC Magnifica will resume cruising in the Eastern Mediterranean later this month, followed by the gradual resumption of the rest of the fleet.
At present, the cruises are only available to citizens of Schengen countries.

Sam

[nwrees1] 19/8/2020 09:44

Covid testing to start soon at Heathrow, double test similar to Germany to reduce quarantineHow long before cruise lines start using Covid testing? Should be possible now and restart trips

[rich1e] 18/8/2020 19:32

I’ve taken a small position here having top sliced a few funds that have done well over the last couple of months. As I rebalance further, over the coming weeks, Ill build a more substantial holding.

[onehanded] 18/8/2020 11:14

This was cash cow pre-virus and will be again. If the saudis pick this up with all it's bushiness below £16 it will prove a steal. A vaccine is coming and then wait for the share price rise. Strong £10 support, no rush until vaccine but that's coming.... Pent up demand like housing will be massive, add in MWG onboard virus water / sewer real time detection in place.

[pierre oreilly] 18/8/2020 10:41

Logan, you missed my question about what shares you own which aren't pretty well bust if things continue as they are? I'd say every uk company is bust under current circumstances - so just wonder how you reconcile that fact in your investing.

[pierre oreilly] 18/8/2020 10:38

Share prices generally reflect new news, not react to rehashed many months old news which was reflected in the price many months ago resulting in a price just 15% of its highs

Buywell, buywell hasn't informed us that there's a covid pandemic about for at least a week. I'll save you the trouble .... Watch out, there's a pandemic about - just in case the saudis or institutions or private investors reading this or indeed ccl themselves haven't noticed.

[loganair] 18/8/2020 10:26

$900 million at an interest rate of 9.875%.

[buywell3] 18/8/2020 09:39

Surely any buyer would be buying Debt or is buywell wrong

Carnival Cruise Line's Fascination ship.
Carnival is issuing $6 billion in stock and debt as the beleaguered cruise ship company tries to shore up its finances after suspending operations following COVID-19 outbreaks on at least three of its ships.Mar 31, 2020

[onehanded] 18/8/2020 08:57

The breach showed a bid from Saudi's on the cards.

[tygarreg] 18/8/2020 07:29

Security breach!!! That's not what we needed right now. Possible claims against us for a breach of ransomwear. Tin hats today.

[sambuca] 17/8/2020 20:09

Another post from Cruise Critic
Long but interesting

Early Efforts To Resume Cruises Fall Prey to COVID-19, Lessons Learned
August 11, 2020

Chris Gray Faust _130
Chris Gray Faust
Managing Editor
(2:15 p.m. EDT ) -- Last week was a discouraging one for cruisers, with COVID-19 cases popping up on the few small ship and international lines that have resumed service.
Norway, where cruising had re-emerged first from the pandemic, has put a two-week docking ban on ships with more than 100 people after Hurtigruten spawned an outbreak that is now past 50 infected passengers and crew. SeaDream I passengers were also forced to quarantine, after a passenger from a previous sailing tested positive for COVID-19.
Despite French Polynesia having some of the most rigorous COVID-19 testing requirements for entry, an American passenger turned up positive, forcing Paul Gauguin to cancel its first cruise with international guests and put them into quarantine.
Small ship operator UnCruise began the first cruise in Alaska, only to jettison it a few days later after a positive COVID-19 test turned up. The line has canceled its very short season.

In an abundance of caution, the Cruise Lines International Association extended suspension of North American service among its member lines for a third time, through October 31, 2020. The move, along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention opening public comment for resumption of service through late September, makes a full-fledged restart of cruising unlikely for the remainder of 2020.
With the latest COVID-19 outbreaks at sea, where does cruising go from here? We take a look at what lessons can be gleaned from the process -- and what the industry might learn moving forward.
Asymptomatic Cases Can Easily Slip Through.
Boarding Area (Photo: Cruise Critic)
Part of the insidious nature of COVID-19 is that people can carry the virus and present absolutely no symptoms. Most of the positive cases reported on the ships were discovered, by testing, in passengers who were asymptomatic.
While most of the cruise lines that returned to sailing announced new health and safety guidelines, these still weren't enough to catch asymptomatic cases. Passengers on UnCruise were required to show proof of a negative test within five days of arrival to Alaska, with a secondary test at the airport. That second test, with the results given to the passenger once they had already boarded the vessel, came back positive for one passenger.

The asymptomatic passenger on Paul Gauguin had a similar story. The 22-year-old American was able to enter French Polynesia with a negative test taken before she left the U.S., but the required follow-up test came back positive.
In a press post-mortem, UnCruise CEO Dan Blanchard said that only rapid response tests would provide results quick enough to get cruising back without a vaccine.
"Had we the availability for rapid testing -- and trust me, we tried -- it's a challenging situation," he said. "Rapid testing could be a way to make this happen."
Testing and Quarantining Crew Multiple Times Is Necessary.
Crew member wearing a mask (Photo: Franz Neumeier)
AIDA, the German cruise line owned by Carnival Corp. & plc, had been set to resume sailings August 1 until a technicality with Italy, where the ship is flagged, delayed resumption.

Crew for the ship arrived from their home countries in late July. While all had taken COVID-19 tests before they flew out, the company required them to take the tests again within a two-week period -- and 10 crew members reported positive results.
A similar event happened in Italy, as crew members arrived for several Costa ships and tested positive.
In a statement, Carnival Corp. spokesperson Roger Frizzell pointed out that the early arrival and multiple testing rounds did what they were supposed to do -- catch positive COVID-19 cases among the crew and deal with them well before passengers board.
"It shows that our strict hygiene protocols developed with the authorities are effective and that we have taken the right preventive measures," the line said in a statement.
Since the incidents, Carnival Corp. has now refined the crew quarantine and testing process. Besides being tested in their own country, crew are tested once they arrive and do not board the ship until they have a negative result. (Neither ship is currently requiring a COVID-19 test from passengers, though). AIDA is now set to begin cruising on September 6.
Conversely, Hurtigruten did not test or quarantine workers from the Philippines before they boarded ships, saying that the crew members had been tested twice in their home country before flying. That violates Norway's own rules for international quarantine, however,

Norwegian press noted
. As of August 10, the positive COVID-19 count from the Hurtigruten outbreak is 41 crew members and 21 guests.
The company has admitted that it violated its own procedures and has launched an internal investigation.
COVID-19 Impact Doesn't Stop When the Cruise Is Over.
Roald Amundsen (Photo: Sarah Holt/Cruise Critic)
In several of the cruise quarantine situations, the COVID-19 positive passenger had actually been on the previous voyage and not the current sailing. But because the virus has such a long incubation period, signs of spread among the crew, which remain the same from cruise to cruise, might not show up until the following sailing.

By the time cruise passengers leave the ship and head back to their respective countries, contact tracing becomes a more difficult proposition. In the Hurtigruten case, the Norwegian Public Health Institute was forced to contact 69 municipalities and several foreign countries to alert those who had been exposed.
Similarly, the SeaDream I quarantine came not because a passenger on the current sailing was sick but because a Danish tourist tested positive upon his return home. Tests of the crew and current passengers have come back negative. However, the country's ban on ship landings has prompted the company to cancel the short Norwegian season.
It begs the question of whether the quick turn-arounds that have been the hallmark of the cruise industry will work, in the COVID-19 era.
Cruise Critic members have raised the
idea of longer turnaround time between cruises
as a way to ensure better sanitation and cleaning. So far, Hapag-Lloyd is the only line to institute a "down day" between cruises, mostly for better sanitation.

But a delay between sailings might also buy time for previous passengers to record a clean bill of health, or for crew to be tested before a new group of people come onboard.
Quick Action Necessary to Mitigate Fallout.
Wilderness Adventurer
The COVID-19 incidents this week showed that if an outbreak does occur, fast action is required -- or you face public outrage.
Hurtigruten is being investigated in Norway for its failure to immediately notify passengers of the previous passengers' positive COVID-19 test. By failing to act as soon as it had the information, the line allowed passengers to leave the ship and go into Tromso, potentially exposing residents there. The delay also meant that exposed crew were still interacting with unsuspecting passengers.
Within Norway, Hurtigruten is a powerful brand. The line not only acts as a cruise but also as a ferry service for the country's small coastal towns. It's as well known as Amtrak would be in the U.S.
Now, though, public officials in Norway say that the outbreak and the way the company handled it has eroded trust. "Hurtigruten has been one of the driving forces for the government to open up for this type of activity and provided very convincing documentation of how seriously they should take this," said Bent Hoie, Norway's Minister of Health and Care Services. "Therefore, it is a pity that we have come into this situation. It's sad."
Conversely, UnCruise acted almost immediately when the positive test result came in. Passengers were sent to their cabins and the ship turned around to Juneau, where guests are being quarantined before testing at the cruise line's expense. The company also sent out a press release the same day that the incident occurred and scheduled two press conferences, in different time zones, to get the news out.
Comprehensive Policies Are Key.
Samsung smart bracelets for MSC for Me (Photo: MSC Cruises)
Until this week, it didn't seem like any cruise line was putting all of the recommended health guidelines into place. While AIDA has a robust crew screening plan, it is not requiring passengers to get COVID-19 tests before boarding. While French Polynesia and Alaska both required passengers to get negative tests, the five-day timeframe was too short to accurately screen the risk.
MSC Cruises might be changing that. Its health and safety protocols, released this week, are perhaps the most comprehensive yet. Among the changes: rapid-response swab tests in the terminal; wearable tech that can also serve as contact tracing; shore excursions with tour leaders in PPE; capacity restrictions not only on the ship but in theaters and dining venues, and masks when social distancing isn't possible.
In an interview with Cruise Critic, MSC Cruises CEO Gianni Onorato said the protocols were developed taking into account feedback from the governments where the company's first two ships will resume sailing: Italy, Greece and Malta. The company is also providing reasonably priced insurance, in case a passenger is turned away because of a COVID-19 test.
The line has also been upfront about the fact that some of the policies might change, depending on the virus itself.
"These measures are subject to evolution, in accordance with how the pandemic will evolve," Onorato said. "We know more and more that there are new technologies and a growing know-how on how to fight the virus, and as these new technologies and procedures are coming out, we will adjust and adapt our protocols."
Waiting is Hard; Failure is Harder.
Aft wake from a cruise ship (Photo: Cruise Critic)
Given the barrage of bad press from the different international outbreaks, as well as from UnCruise in Alaska, it's not surprising that CLIA issued a further suspension this week. Most in the industry believe the last thing that cruise lines need right now is more association with COVID-19, particularly because most people now realize the virus can spread in any indoor gathering, not just on cruise ships.
"We believe this proactive action further demonstrates the cruise industry's commitment to public health and willingness to voluntarily suspend operations in the interest of public health and safety, as has occurred twice prior," CLIA said in its statement.
The CEOs of the major cruise lines have all said publicly that it's better to emerge from the pandemic with new procedures based on science and best practices, as they develop. In the beginning, for example, focus seemed to be on ensuring clean surfaces. Now, after a study of Diamond Princess, consensus is building that ventilation changes may be the answer.
Many of the smaller lines that are not CLIA members are also adopting their return to service timelines. Those who aren't are emerging more cautious than before.
"It's not worth the risk," Blanchard said, of sailing in the current environment. "It (COVID-19) can sneak on there. … It's sobering. It's really sobering

Sam

[pierre oreilly] 17/8/2020 13:11

logan, don't you think an 85% share price drop prices a higher debt level in?

As I said before, however bleak the outlook - and it is very bleak short term for 98% of companies imv - the gov will act so the economy doesn't collapse. We can't come out of this with almost every company in receivers' hands.

What companies do you own shares in which aren't currently in dire circumstances?

[guitars4stars] 17/8/2020 12:52

Then why comment here?

[loganair] 17/8/2020 11:05

Many companies such as the cruise lines and airlines will be loaded up with 25% to 50% more debt at the end of 2020 then they started the year at. This will be a great strain on their finances going forward for many years to come.

[pierre oreilly] 17/8/2020 10:05

The Saudis will ensure it survives and will probably buy it outright imv. What better industry is there for them to diversify away from their depleting oil?. Most businesses are bust atm, but govs won't allow many to officially go under else whole economies would collapse. CCL is about 15% of its previous value. The outlook depends on how far you look ahead, not great with a one month outlook, recovering strongly on a one year outlook, and pretty good after 2 years I reckon. The pandemic is nothing new and is priced in.