Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[yasyas1] 25/6/2020 11:10

Well so there is some hope then

[yasyas1] 25/6/2020 11:09

Yes a real lesson for me sam. Hoeever question for me is do i stay now or do i go. Take 500 liss ans learn????

[pierre oreilly] 25/6/2020 10:56

errr, cruises have already started again.

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The first post Covid-19 cruise of leading river cruise operator, Scylla, has successfully come to an end after 13 days of sailing along the Danube, Main and Rhine rivers. The cruise aboard nickoVISION, run by river cruise line, nicko cruises, took a reduced number of passengers from Passau to Dusseldorf, in Germany.

The ship, which set sail on 1 June, was the first cruise with the new Covid-19 safety regulations on board, which had to be observed by all passengers and crew members. Some of these measures were regular temperature checks and the one-way system in corridors to guarantee optimal social distancing. “Both guests and crew mastered these challenges with flying colours. Our first post-lockdown river cruise went without a hitch,” said Arno Reitsma, CEO of Scylla. “All passengers were very satisfied with the cruise experience, they felt completely safe with the new measures and said they had a really pleasant time with us,” Reitsma added.

After a very successful start, the river cruise season can now be continued. This means that guests will once again be able to enjoy a variety of river cruises on Europe’s most popular waterways, even though travel itself is now slightly different. “We are not yet able to operate on all the European rivers we used to, but we will be gradually adding new routes and expanding our offer,” he concluded.

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(I expect the response will be 'but those are river cruises' .... which is a null point. Cruises are currently sailing with adequate precautions against covid (and noro and flu) and successfully finishing.

[loganair] 25/6/2020 09:31

The health bods in the U.S. are saying when Covid first arrived it did so in the big cities then spread to the smaller cities, the town and has now seeded itself in the countryside and there is going to be a massive outbreak come the 'Fall.' Like with most Pandemics, the 2nd wave is often far worse than the 1st wave.

If even half what these bods have been saying comes about will end up meaning cruise lines with no cruises for 16 months and for Carnival no income or revenue for 16 months while at the same time $8bln in costs/expenditure.

If this turns out to be the case, what are Carnival shares really worth?

[arja] 25/6/2020 08:33

so debt is now junk status according to moodys was it ?! chartwise it looks awful but that applies to quite a few stocks with US markets tanking yesterday and follow through today . USA is lead market for this stock and I think futures opens at abouit 11.30am Uk time

[andy flower] 24/6/2020 23:10

Yup. Watching the credit markets carefully. FED cannot keep propping them up.At the same time a lot of activity in the vaccine area including Imperial college trials starting today. So, too many moving parts which I cannot keep my head around. Staying cash for now.

[sambuca] 24/6/2020 20:09

yasyas
Learn from what has happened here a stop loss at a profit of say £700 and you would be looking at £300 loss from the top and looking at a new entry point for your money instead of looking at a £500 loss.
If the share price had shot up after your stop loss was hit you can console yourself with your £700.
I learnt this a long time ago with JKX brought at 19p sold half of my holding at 64p and the other half at 82p the share price went up to around £5.50 if that was my biggest mistake about 400% profit I would be a very happy man.

Sam

[stupmy] 24/6/2020 17:41

Andy, no-one can see into the future, but just using basics it's clear this could drop to 725 area or even low 600s. If there is a wider market shock, 'all of the horses will bolt the barn, the pretty ones along with the mules'.

[tarawalsh44] 24/6/2020 17:40

This is going to new all time lows, the cruise industry is in massive long term trouble.I speak as a cruise lover by the way.

[yasyas1] 24/6/2020 17:09

Real naff day was 1k up a couple of wks ago now 500 down.

[andy flower] 24/6/2020 16:18

A lot of pain short term but the Saudis will come back to help if liquidity becomes an issue. Difficult to call how far this is going to fall.

[stupmy] 24/6/2020 16:10

Thanks Vanadium. share price all over the placet at the moment, but newsflow looks to favour downside to me.

[onehanded] 24/6/2020 15:55

I see a rights issue expected, a while back they were on a share buyback scheme above £30. Second wave in USA and global will kill this share.

[kasamavic] 23/6/2020 17:55

That downgrade was out last week.

[stupmy] 23/6/2020 13:16

hxxps://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/the-expert-view-carnival-serco-and-superdry/a1370354?re=75568&ea=351732&utm_source=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon&utm_medium=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon#i=2


Berenberg downgrades unattractive Carnival

Berenberg has downgraded Carnival (CCL) as it believes the cruise ship operator’s share price is trading at levels in ‘a parallel universe’ where there is no coronavirus crisis.

Analyst Stuart Gordon downgraded his recommendation from ‘hold’ to ‘sell’ and reduced the target price from £11.80 to 800p. The shares closed at £12.47 on Friday.

He said the level of the share price suggested ‘valuation multiples have corrected upwards, and Covid-19 does not exist’.

Gordon also questioned whether Carnival’s capital structure was sustainable and said the ‘shape and extent of the recovery of the industry’ was ‘far from certain’.

[goldrush] 23/6/2020 12:17

Pierre

Many thanks for you full explanation.

[pierre oreilly] 23/6/2020 11:29

Gold,i think thre situation re covid insurnce is pretty fluid. I'm with nationwide, and got a letter saying any new booking won't be covered, but existing will. None covered from the renewal date (which is strange because it's continuous). Since then, i think the regulator or someone has said covid must be covered for all new bookings with existing contracts (including continuous ones like mine) and renewals, but not new contracts if you switch for example. Basically, it's fluid and check the latest!

Obviously, ccl must cover for covid if insurers won't, else not many will go on a cruise! It's analgous to norovirus, where the cruise company covered medical costs for that when caught onboard.

Be interesting to see the insurance situation with the river cruises which are sailing atm (and counters those who say no country will let cruise passengers in!).

[underhill2] 22/6/2020 23:02

What an absolute nonesense post. Both TUI and Carnival will be here for many years to come. There will be many firms that go out of business on the next few months but it wont be the above mentioned ones.

[useless23] 22/6/2020 21:29

I bought Carnival and TUI as they fell in the crash. I sold both at a loss as I think neither have any chance of getting any meaningful income until summer 2021 therefore, I think both will go bust in the meantime.

[loganair] 22/6/2020 19:16

I do not understand why Carnival shares are as high as they are???

1. Like with the other cruise lines, Carnival will have ZERO income/revenue for 8 months while at the same time they've had up to $4bln in out going costs.

Even if the cruise lines do get up and running in October they will still be losing a great deal of money during the following 6 months.

2. There is a likelihood that when Carnival are due to restart operations in October a second wave of Covid hits and it doesn't have to hit that hard for countries to ban cruise ships which would mean a further 8 months with no revenues and a further $4bln in out going costs.

This would mean 16 months with Zero income and $8bln in out going costs.

[sambuca] 22/6/2020 19:16

I am not much of a chartist but going on the 3 month chart CCL hit the bottom of its support line today so tomorrow will be interesting as to what CCL price does and what the FTSE does. If FTSE goes up and CCL down who knows as far as I read the chart there is no real support until £8.00.
As I say not much of a chartist so would be happy for a proper chartist to correct me if I am wrong.

Sam

[slinkyj] 22/6/2020 17:58

Buy order in for the slippery slide down to 700.

[justiceforthemany] 22/6/2020 17:50

Guardian reporting Trump very likely to have vaccine approved by FDA before November election.

Astrazeneca/Oxford releasing their vaccine in September.

China could beat them all.
The race is on.

Will be a game changer.

Just 15 UK deaths today.

Quarantine rules likely to be relaxed in UK also come July.