Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[rovi70] 28/5/2020 12:46

ditto declan

[declan2] 28/5/2020 12:40

Bought a few more, way undervalued

[rovi70] 28/5/2020 12:38

and when the shops open ????

[tomc85] 28/5/2020 12:33

Pressure building here, volume picking up. Very good value due a re-rate imo

[encarter] 26/5/2020 11:52

Yep loads of reasons for institution to sell. Up coming bad results isn't one of them because they don't know any more than we do.

[qs99] 26/5/2020 11:49

not sure I pay much attention to instis sometimes......new manager, gets rid of old stuff at any price IMO

[placing] 26/5/2020 11:32

not sure if Norges selling before results is a good sign, but who knows what's coming on Monday

[qs99] 26/5/2020 11:31

didn't it have £200m RCF and was £130m+ drawn one of the updates in 2020? IMO that should be enough "cover", with furloughing, reduced capex, no divi etc etc cash management.....DYOR let's see what update says, but it will also accelerate online move which can't be bad....

GLA

[salamander69] 26/5/2020 11:28

Yeah - hopefully we have seen the bottom - perhaps the overhang from norges bank recently selling has started to clear also? Quietly optimistic - entered myself with a position last week

[placing] 26/5/2020 11:28

results on Monday, any need for fundraising?

[qs99] 26/5/2020 11:21

buyers returning IMO

[dexdringle] 23/5/2020 13:53

The virus, and associated social distancing will both be gone well before Christmas.

[lestat102] 23/5/2020 09:29

The shops will be fine handling the kind of volume they take in June. Its Christmas where the problem will be if social distancing is the norm, as they are all rammed in December. its a bet on how close to normality we return.

Interestingly the company makes little money during the summer months so having a rates holiday and staff furloughed they shouldn't be that worse off. They'll also be strong arming landlords and are entitled to a £10k/£25 grant per shop depending on rateable value ( though nothing for anything that exceeds a rateable value of £52k )

I'll be keeping an eye on my local stores in Manchester to see how they start trading in June.

ps don't get excited about online. In the context of 1000 shops, its miniscule ( though welcome, obviously )

[lastchance23] 20/5/2020 15:47

Stevieb2190<< I think you underestimate the business, if in one quarter they have tripled online volume and increased get personal 57%, they will be assessing store options. They are also looking at click and collect and will no doubt have to change the business model; but supermarkets and tiny convenience stores have adapted, it may slow volume, but we will have to wait to see the online / offline affect. The company still delivered 66m profit last year, I would be more concerned if it was barely breaking even, but it has some time to change, let's hope this forced situation awakens management, because the core product is still relevant, it's just about marketing and channels.

[stevieb2190] 20/5/2020 13:07

Whatever the fundamentals card cannot survive without volume and they cant have that for a very long time, no matter how much online they do it will never be enough to support 1000 shops. They have got big problems and whatever the current numbers show it doesn't look good.they should have been changing their model years ago as its been heading one way for sometime...

[wiseman1967] 20/5/2020 08:16

The true debt number (bank debt) will be between 130-175m gbp - the variance being driven by the level of working capital at various points during the year. The higher 300m gbp number includes capitalised leases under the new accounting standard. This is relevant for all companies but affects retailers most given their physical estate of shops on leases. It is disappointing that Simply Wall St has not differentiated between the two.

[danjcal] 20/5/2020 06:52

not sure I entirely agree on this one :)

[dingo75] 20/5/2020 06:29

£104m mk cap
i don't think that reflects the value of the business

A decimal point after the 1 does though, perhaps?

Thanks for listening and have a nice day.

[danjcal] 20/5/2020 05:42

Yes, agree on that. There has not been near enough focus to drive online. Positive numbers of course from recent results but we should not forget this is from a relatively low base, and a very small proportion of the overall business.

I believe the share price is cheap. The business does rely on volume which is a concern. but they do capture most of the market. There also has to be a fairly easy push in Southern Ireland at speed.

I am interested to see what this 'new strategy' provides. the new CCO (formally Tesco) I assume is playing a key part in building this.

I am disappointed by the latest communication releases. Very vague, which drives the worry for what is happening internally.

[lastchance23] 20/5/2020 04:01

The long term is 280m according simply Wall Street, but they have 101m in assets, so roughly 180m, I believe it is 3:1 leverage, but most companies are at least 2:1 nowdays, so I don't think it's that bad, and at least they are aware and committed to reducing this. We need to be more concerned with how they will transition the Furlow, impact on store visits, and how much online will mitigate or improve; as the company was still fundamentally strong profit wise.

[danjcal] 20/5/2020 01:02

I've seen a number of figures in relation to their debt, what actually is it? I have seen 3 figures across a number of communications, 137m 171m and 316m? any ideas anyone?

[lastchance23] 18/5/2020 16:50

Don't know, it's quite a large position, I don't know when they first invested. If they added after the pandemic, then they knew the situation.

Investors are struggling to get their head around anything retail, these online / offline retail may end up being good buys, because there hard to value, but get dislocated. As long as the online can prop up the business or gain value then it's a good long term hold. I'm also looking at Dixons, similar situation.

[encarter] 18/5/2020 15:35

Do you think Invesco are selling?