Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[mallorca 9] 21/1/2020 09:57

I could see the Market Cap falling to around £100m pretty quickly .. so circa 30p per share.

[mallorca 9] 21/1/2020 09:56

Stevie,

another big problem for them (and Works) is the forthcoming record increase in the Living Wage. Goes up by 50p per hour from April.

[mallorca 9] 21/1/2020 09:53

Net debt £177m EXCLUDING leases !

If the next update is bad then the fall in the share price may be brutal.

[stevieb2190] 21/1/2020 09:51

CARD..as i predicted ALL last year are heading for trouble and the reasons are numerous..
Their reason for being is being attacked from all corners with value offerings absolutely everywhere.
They are trying to chase turnover in the wrong places that will and are taking business from existing stores..this continued chasing more stores, already over 1000 is a recipe for disaster and im sorry but the aldi deal is a white elephant that will produce next to nothing, they only sell open birthday and will be lucky to sell £50 worth a day..producing a max of £10 a day gross to Card after aldi have their cut.
Costs across the board will increase in the coming months and there is no way to cut these as they already push their luck with staff in particular.
They will be running out of excuses soon..
Poor footfall
Brexit uncertainty
Costs of stockpiling
Poor weather
Previous year heatwave
All this and now works biting at their heals..

Works, i wasnt sure about...visited a store and changed my opinion slightly as even their name..THE WORKS...they are not constrained as to what they sell..any deals they can make they can sell i wouldnt be shocked to see coffee on sale..jars that is..or easter eggs, shopper will go in there no matter what they want or even know what they want until they see it but if you dont need a birthday card today you wont go into CARD...people dont browse in Card but they do the WORKS..
CARD is far too narrow and to be avoided...i think the next set of full results will be scary..bye bye for now

[fenners66] 21/1/2020 09:42

Yet we see the statement that short term leases allow flexibility so they can close underperforming shops if necessary.
Its almost as if they know the strategy is wrong , so they give themselves a chance to change their mind.

I don't think its a bad strategy - short term leases, rents are falling not rising so look for future discounts.

I do think that paying the special div and effectively using borrowed cash to pay for it was madness.

Get the debt down and house in order first.

No guarantees the ord div will not get a cut after review now.

[mallorca 9] 21/1/2020 08:29

Lastchance

be careful …. My view is that Card is on the wrong strategy - opening more stores and locking into more lease liability.
Add to that previous special divi's rather than paying down debt.
I would seriously question the management here .

A very strong bet to go bust.

[garycook] 21/1/2020 07:47

Harry,Filtered.

[harry3021] 21/1/2020 07:27

Sorry I have to post on both - both companies are very similar/related - Schroders plc have been adding to their WRKS holding - says a lot!

[harry3021] 21/1/2020 07:05

yes that was part of my reasoning for getting into WRKS. If he managed to build Card Factory to what it is he should be able to make WRKS a success story. He and his wife own a lot of WRKS shares and management bought in there in good size in mid-2019.

[m_kerr] 20/1/2020 23:06

works was founded by the same guy who founded card factory.

shows that it's not difficult to replicate this sort of business.

[lastchance23] 20/1/2020 18:29

I think people need to be careful about speculating about cards situation getting worse, as well as about history and number of issues of profit warning...past performance is not always an indicator of future performance, anything can happen in retail with partnerships, mergers, acquisitions. The high street footfool was record low for all businesses this xmas, M&S had similar problems, but is only down around 10%. What is needed here is some clear direction from management, if they act quick get a grip on the good parts of the business and make appropriate changes, sentiment will quickly change.

I'm in card at £1.40 and after the drop, I did short works, I wasn't expecting it to continue so only made small amount on first day. I like works as a business as well, but I'm not convinced it will continue much more, and may pull back, not many people are patient with retail, the over sell with card tells you that. Cards PE now 7, the retail average 16-18. I just remind myself, less shareholder bumps dividend, so at moment dividend will cover loss; but think everyone knows they'll be an increase near ex div date.

[mallorca 9] 20/1/2020 11:32

harry3021

I think you made a difficult but correct decision.

I would not want to be long on a stock that respected and very successful traders like Robbie Burns are tipping to go bust .

[harry3021] 20/1/2020 10:44

I had bought 10k of this one but I decided to sell today. The difference in valuation between this one and WRKS is too high. So even though I thought I was grabbing a bargain here on buying on the crash I'm starting to change my mind. So i lost about 8% on this one and gained 53% on WRKS. I'm expecting WRKS to keep nudging up - at 29.38 million valuation it is trading at a bargain to CARD's 321.67 million! Besides WRKS directors bought in substantial volumes in Jul 2019 at much higher prices while the director of Card bought in a pitiful amount so far!

Jul 3, 2019
Director Type Volume / Price Value % Held
C.J. Glickman BUY 16,187 @ 61.78p £10,000 0.05
G.L. Peck BUY 100,000 @ 68.75p £68,750 0.89
H.M.C. Morley BUY 15,500 @ 69.13p £10,715 0.05
K.G.P. Keaney BUY 100,000 @ 68.75p £68,750 1.91

[fenners66] 20/1/2020 09:45

After the first profit warning.
History says expect 3 on average.

[stevieb2190] 20/1/2020 09:33

Card continuing its descent

[harry3021] 20/1/2020 08:28

WRKS continuing its ascent this morning.
47.87 GBX +3.17 (7.09%)
Market valuation still way too low at just 29.92 million

[garycook] 19/1/2020 09:39

Agree,There is a gap to fill to 140p !!!

[bargainbob] 19/1/2020 09:37

Naked trader lol , amateur hour .

[hardupfedup] 19/1/2020 09:26

best of luck to you and your thoughts --- dont mean to say its correct even if nt says so --- does reflect the current price as all the copy trades from him come through --time will tell -- the margin says it all imo --- price rising over the near term i would say

[mallorca 9] 18/1/2020 10:47

If I had to pick between investing in Works or Card then it's an absolute no brainer …..

It would be works.

It's current value circa only £28m verses Card £300m … Card debt EXCLUDING leases £177m , with leases £300m debt and growing.
Works debt ...to be debt free by year end.

Naked Trader has also picked Card out as a Company likely to go bust and is also shorting this.

[mallorca 9] 18/1/2020 10:43

Yes I am short on this and I truly believe that this will be gone within 2 years.

[farrugia] 18/1/2020 09:46

he's just a shorter - the debt is shown as having increased due to the new accounting regulations.

[hardupfedup] 18/1/2020 09:18

i dont agree the debt is massive -- manageable -- a vast difference for a company with this np/ margin

[farrugia] 18/1/2020 08:54

I wholly agree!