Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[lastchance23] 20/5/2020 15:47

Stevieb2190<< I think you underestimate the business, if in one quarter they have tripled online volume and increased get personal 57%, they will be assessing store options. They are also looking at click and collect and will no doubt have to change the business model; but supermarkets and tiny convenience stores have adapted, it may slow volume, but we will have to wait to see the online / offline affect. The company still delivered 66m profit last year, I would be more concerned if it was barely breaking even, but it has some time to change, let's hope this forced situation awakens management, because the core product is still relevant, it's just about marketing and channels.

[stevieb2190] 20/5/2020 13:07

Whatever the fundamentals card cannot survive without volume and they cant have that for a very long time, no matter how much online they do it will never be enough to support 1000 shops. They have got big problems and whatever the current numbers show it doesn't look good.they should have been changing their model years ago as its been heading one way for sometime...

[wiseman1967] 20/5/2020 08:16

The true debt number (bank debt) will be between 130-175m gbp - the variance being driven by the level of working capital at various points during the year. The higher 300m gbp number includes capitalised leases under the new accounting standard. This is relevant for all companies but affects retailers most given their physical estate of shops on leases. It is disappointing that Simply Wall St has not differentiated between the two.

[danjcal] 20/5/2020 06:52

not sure I entirely agree on this one :)

[dingo75] 20/5/2020 06:29

£104m mk cap
i don't think that reflects the value of the business

A decimal point after the 1 does though, perhaps?

Thanks for listening and have a nice day.

[danjcal] 20/5/2020 05:42

Yes, agree on that. There has not been near enough focus to drive online. Positive numbers of course from recent results but we should not forget this is from a relatively low base, and a very small proportion of the overall business.

I believe the share price is cheap. The business does rely on volume which is a concern. but they do capture most of the market. There also has to be a fairly easy push in Southern Ireland at speed.

I am interested to see what this 'new strategy' provides. the new CCO (formally Tesco) I assume is playing a key part in building this.

I am disappointed by the latest communication releases. Very vague, which drives the worry for what is happening internally.

[lastchance23] 20/5/2020 04:01

The long term is 280m according simply Wall Street, but they have 101m in assets, so roughly 180m, I believe it is 3:1 leverage, but most companies are at least 2:1 nowdays, so I don't think it's that bad, and at least they are aware and committed to reducing this. We need to be more concerned with how they will transition the Furlow, impact on store visits, and how much online will mitigate or improve; as the company was still fundamentally strong profit wise.

[danjcal] 20/5/2020 01:02

I've seen a number of figures in relation to their debt, what actually is it? I have seen 3 figures across a number of communications, 137m 171m and 316m? any ideas anyone?

[lastchance23] 18/5/2020 16:50

Don't know, it's quite a large position, I don't know when they first invested. If they added after the pandemic, then they knew the situation.

Investors are struggling to get their head around anything retail, these online / offline retail may end up being good buys, because there hard to value, but get dislocated. As long as the online can prop up the business or gain value then it's a good long term hold. I'm also looking at Dixons, similar situation.

[encarter] 18/5/2020 15:35

Do you think Invesco are selling?

[lastchance23] 18/5/2020 15:08

There can't be any major change, as everyone is just coming out of furlow, and online performance and liquidity to 2023 has been confirmed. Only factor is social distancing for shops, and west will happen to footfall or performance; hopefully online conversions will prop up or add value to business.

Doubt this will go much further, Fair value is 70p, so it's over 60% discount. I could see 25p at push, but likewise this could move back to 40' quickly again.

[encarter] 18/5/2020 14:59

Bad news or a seller? Either way I can see these under 20p.

[lastchance23] 13/5/2020 10:49

The online growth can hopefully offset the problems, these online offline retail stores are one of the hardest ones to value in this pandemic, some may end up benefiting. I'm hoping this guides cards future strategy, the business is still there, look how many cards got sent to Captain Tom for his 100th. People still like a physical card.

[encarter] 13/5/2020 09:21

Maybe some bad news coming or Invesco dumping more stock.

[qs99] 13/5/2020 08:56

will take a look thanks

[guernseymoney] 13/5/2020 08:46

Thanks - am in also.

This was fun, have donated (they're still way off the £100k target)

hxxps://www.giving.cardfactory.co.uk/

[qs99] 13/5/2020 08:32

Nope, but am in for the ride not one of my trading plays so am happy for fluctuations....DYOR

[guernseymoney] 13/5/2020 08:30

Anyone know why down 10% today?

[encarter] 12/5/2020 12:47

Good set of questions. Let me know if you find the answers.

[qs99] 11/5/2020 08:17

Some nice buys coming through to start the week....DYOR

[qs99] 07/5/2020 21:11

They don't, but should IMO, give online numbers. Credibility wise they need to start doing that, or have I just skim read and missed them?

Interims had £196m revenues up 5.5% and underlying EBITDA £29m.....leverage 1.93 times, out on 24 Sept 2019, since then profit warnings etc etc.....market cap now £141m

Full year to Jan 19 they did c.£90m underlying EBITDA, so if in "normalised" circumstances they can get near to that again, the market cap just looks odd IMO.....BUT all depends on banks being patient and them managing their cash well....

so DYOR, read the stats & RNSs, I think this has further to go.....

[rovi70] 07/5/2020 13:24

dex in at 1.09 so hope lots, funds low so cant lower average at this time.

[qs99] 07/5/2020 13:10

oops....well I am sure you will IMO this has further to go as valuation is IMO more than supported by fundamentals....online doing well and shops IMO won't be too far away from being opened, let's see. DYOR

[dexdringle] 07/5/2020 12:42

Yes. But unfortunately at 90p from 3 months ago. So not so much a 'ride' as a hope that I might get back to the start of my journey !