| Date | Subject |
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09/7/2020
08:41 | hodhasharon: Share Price 100p
Order Book:
I will sell you my shares at:
110
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
I will buy these shares at
99
98
97
96
95
....you get the idea.
If I want to buy a load of shares, I need the price to go down (because that's when the weak holders like us will sell us their shares.)
What would happen if the price started moving up? (we wouldn't part with them as our minds conjure up fantasies of the share price going to the moon).
So how do the big players make the price go down?
They sell to the guy who wants to buy the 100p shares at 99p (the share price is now 99p)
They then sell to the guy who wants to buy at 98p (the price is now 98p)
This goes on, the weak players sell as their minds conjure up doomsday scenarios, the big players buy the flood of panic sells.
The big players sold a few, in order to buy many.
Make sense?
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06/3/2020
11:04 | sandidan: Unless you're worried that the share price goes up now?
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26/2/2020
10:47 | owlbaby: Does the recent drop in share price suggest that word has got out somehow that results will be disappointing?
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08/7/2019
20:05 | red ninja: Yes. Woodford appears to be selling out,but share price reasonably resilient
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28/6/2019
05:14 | red ninja: From yesterdays RNS Woodford Investment Management Ltd have sold 5% of their holding. Presumably they will sell the rest (approx 5%) given their need to raise cash for disgruntled Woodford fund holders. Thus, the share price will remain subdued until they have disposed of their remaining stake.
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04/1/2019
00:00 | mj19: Today - Deutsche Bank Cuts Capita (CPI) Price Target to GBX 130
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24/12/2018
10:16 | kingston78: Get out of Capita quickly whilst its share price is still above £1. I have been bearish of this stock for a long time. There is only so much the new management can do.
Soon the share price will go below £1, and as soon as it breaks the £1 psychological barrier it will crash very quickly.
A certain star fund manager is past his sell-by date. Anything that he has invested in has gone belly up.
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28/11/2018
11:12 | daffyjones: CAPITA - A BAGHOLDER'S TALE
BY NEIL WOODFORD.
June 2014 - CPI share price 1137 – CPI makes the top ten in the launch portfolio of Woodford's flagship fund.
Feb 2016 – share price 1030 - "Capita weakened sharply after issuing its full year results. The company continues to show strong organic growth, and both earnings and dividend growth remain at attractive levels. Investors appear to have focused on the company’s net debt, however, which came in slightly higher than expected and some analysts now fear that a rights issue may be required to delever the balance sheet. We think that this is unlikely and are much less concerned about the strength of Capita’s balance sheet. We believe it remains well-placed to deliver very attractive rates of growth.”
Sep 2016 – 670 – “The largest detractor from performance was Capita, which issued a profit warning towards the end of the month. We have always accepted that there was some cyclicality within Capita’s business but a number of other issues have arisen, some of which are one-off in nature. As you would expect, we have met the management and are reassured that the company is already doing some of the things it needs to do in order to restore the business to a healthier growth trajectory. Although the market is clearly worried about the sustainability of Capita’s dividend and the prospect of a dilutive rights issue, we are confident that the dividend is safe and that an equity issue will not be required. The market’s reaction looks disproportionate. We added slightly to the holding towards the end of the month at a very depressed share price level."
Dec 2016 - 535 – “We believe the market has over-reacted to the series of profit warnings. In our view, the share price now profoundly undervalues the fundamental long-term attractions of this business. At times like this, it is essential that one does not compound the impact of a fundamental disappointment through an emotional reaction to a share price fall."
Jan 2017 – 509 – “it is critical that we do not compound that mistake through an emotional reaction to the disappointment of the share price fall. Our view is that the market has over-reacted to this series of negative trading updates. In turn, this has driven Capita’s share price way below the intrinsic value of the business. We have, therefore, retained conviction in the long-term investment case and took advantage of the depressed share price to add to the fund’s position in the company.”
Feb 2017 – 416 – “We have said before that we were disappointed by events at Capita last year, which combined to undermine market confidence in the business and the credibility of management forecasts. We have spoken to management several times as these issues have unfolded, including a recent conversation with the new chairman who appears keen to ensure that the business takes appropriate steps to move on from last year’s challenges. In our view, Capita’s share price continues to profoundly undervalue the fundamental long-term attractions of the business. It will take time to rebuild credibility and value at the company but we believe the management changes announced earlier this month will mark an important step on that journey.”
Dec 2017 – 392 – “Capita performed poorly, following the release of its interim results. Although the results were broadly in line with expectations, there were a number of complicating one-off elements and a mixed outlook statement. The shares declined by 12% on the day of the results which looks very harsh to us in the context of Capita’s already low valuation. The shares yield over 7% here which suggests that some investors fear a dividend cut may be required. Clearly that eventuality cannot be completely ruled out, but having met Jon Lewis during the month, we are reassured that decisions around capital structure and the dividend will be informed by a clearer long-term strategy for the business. In the meantime, we have maintained the portfolio’s exposure to this business, seeing the potential for significant value creation in the future as Capita is restored to the high quality, successful and well-run business that it used to be.”
Jan 2018 – 182 – “Since the profit warning on Wednesday, Capita’s share price has broadly halved, which has clearly been unhelpful to recent performance. I am pleased that we have seen from the company what we thought would be coming. This is a complete reset for Capita. The new chief executive, Jonathan Lewis, has mapped out a clear new direction of travel for the business and it is one with which I completely agree. This reset has been met with a massive fall in the share price from an already very depressed level. In the current market conditions, perhaps we should not have expected anything else. After all, Capita represents many of the things that this market loathes at the moment – it is exposed to the UK economy. This is the reality of what we have been writing about for some time now. Markets are being driven by momentum. Valuation is irrelevant – it simply does not matter in the stock market at the moment. This has been a poor investment, but it is one that has the capacity to become a significantly better one from here. I would go as far as to say that the business will be in better shape at the end of 2018 than it was in 2016. It will have infinitely better leadership, a stronger balance sheet, better cash flow, more conservative accounting policies and a lower pension deficit. The mistake I have made, albeit I didn’t know it at the time, was in owning Capita in 2016. It is not a mistake to own it now. And so, I will not be compounding the previous error by behaving in an irrational and valuation insensitive way now. I would be doing you, my investors, a massive injustice if I was to abandon the investment discipline that has guided me for 30 years in this industry.”
Nov 2018 – 107 – Woody finally sells out completely, with the shares down 90% from the launch of his fund.
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22/11/2018
08:45 | fenners66: In the 1980's there was a simple BBC computer game called Stockmar.
It was addictive for a group of half drunk mates to buy and sell 4 shares until one reached billionaire status and won.
Crux was if you bought shares they were likely to go up and if you sold they usually went down. You could either buy or sell one share on your go.
Guess Woodford never played it .
Maybe he could have learned that by adding large stakes - yes the share price would rise - but then he could not exit without the share price falling again.
Which is where he was at - not wanting to bite the bullet because he would make it worse.
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12/8/2018
13:18 | vulcan2: ANOTHER UPGRADE FOR CAPITA - New Target price 210p.
10 Aug 2018
RBC repeated an ‘outperform217; rating on Capita and raised its target price to 210p from 200p
Capita
RBC thinks Capita's turnaround plan is on track
Capita PLC (LON:CPI) shares have fallen 21% since the outsourcer cut its full-year profit guidance but RBC Capital Markets sees this as a buying opportunity.
RBC repeated an ‘outperform217; rating on Capita and raised its target price to 210p from 200p, saying it thinks the drop in the share price is a surprise.
Earlier this month, Capita said it expects full-year underlying profits to be between £250mln-£;275mln, compared to the £270mln-£;300mln it estimated earlier this year, after first-half profits fell 59% to £80.5mln and organic revenue dropped 2.4%.
READ: Capita lowers profit guidance and warns turnaround plan will take time
However, chief executive Jonathan Lewis said he was making good progress on his turnaround strategy and repeated his guidance for a return to growth in 2020.
“With near-term guidance reiterated, 2020 targets unaltered and financial deleveraging ahead of plan, we are reassured,” RBC said.
“This story is about cost savings and self-help (not organic growth) at present and on this basis, the group is on track.”
'Capita still thinking about new growth opportunities'
RBC said while the focus remains on Capita’s restructuring, it is encouraging to see developments like the company’s partnership with Microsoft to create a workspace application. The broker said this indicates that management is still thinking about new growth opportunities.
“This turnaround (for at least the next 18 months) is about what management can influence and not what the market does,” it added.
RBC expects a re-rating, to be driven by the delivery of cost savings, contract rehabilitation and cutting the interest cost, rather than organic growth.
Organic growth will remain difficult, RBC said, as it struggles with contract attrition and a benign UK market.
'Market caution looks overdone'
However, the broker thinks the turnaround looks “very within its compass and on this basis, market caution looks overdone to us”.
“We are not arguing that Capita has a superior business model. Indeed, with £500mln of investment needed over the next three years, there is evidently much to do,” RBC said.
“Concerns on its ability to win work and retain work will also persist. However, recent wins imply the group is not out in the 'wilderness' in the UK and we continue to believe that cost savings have been conservatively guided.”
RBC upgraded its earnings per share estimate for fiscal year 2018 by 4.5% to 11.60p. For 2019, it raised its EPS forecast by 8.5% to 13.60p.
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PLUS1
