Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 24/8/2024 00:00

@earwacks - I think you have taken the warrant issue price from the RNS ? Interestingly the 2023 annual report says the warrants were priced at 91p (page 75). Something to clarify with the company.

[earwacks] 23/8/2024 12:48

A lot of observer/investors having a fresh look at this, realising they are now in a pretty healthy situation, not with standing some meaty contracts being fulfilled. Just wondering how Claret ( European loan note provider )stands with Cog . They have warrants to buy £550,000 of share at around 72p. Interesting they didn’t partake in the placing. Any views? panmure reiterate £1.50 price target. gl all

[bmcollins] 22/8/2024 16:47

@40 Fathoms
As ever a very full and convincing assessment of a company, thanks for this it will be a great help to me.
I was aware of the Monument situation and vaguely aware that Apple could have an interest but the other pieces of the jigsaw which you identify are indeed, potentially very profitable.
You are tempting me to add to my modest holding as I really bought them in July just to dip my toe in as they looked to me then that there was more upside than downside.
I look fwd to the webinar mentioned in todays RNS.
Thanks again for your comments.

[nchanning] 22/8/2024 14:43

If they really hit these revenue forecasts of 14m and 16m for 2025 , 80 % gross margins , growing end markets and already modestly profitable this share price could go ballistic . Still a lot of work to do in this H2 after just 5.6m in H1 . Neither the company's own results narrative nor the broker note convinced me this is in the bag . Still only a small position for me would back up the truck if they start executing

[bmcollins] 22/8/2024 14:23

@ Jasper
@40 Fathoms
Thanks for that, I am a "newbie" in this stock, I entered just after the last placing as it seemed that they had a very good story and they had been run well but suffering, as are so many AIM co's, from a lack of interest by most investors.
I would normally buy a stock like this through a vct but the tightening of the rules for AIM vct's has made it tempting to buy direct and especially after a placing at a low price historically and which has given the co a decent runway where there is a coherent chance of success, as I believe there is here.

[40 fathoms] 22/8/2024 12:31

@bmcollins - I am not sure there is too much to worry about on the R&D expenditure front; they still managed to spend GBP 1.4 million during the half. A reduction was expected as several specific R&D projects reached completion.

[jasperlachat] 22/8/2024 08:56

Disagree, just the process of moving to commercialisation of the R & D created.

[bmcollins] 22/8/2024 08:51

The one thing I am uncomfortable with is a large part of their cost cutting was over 35% off of R&D.
To me R&D is the very lifeblood to a company like COG, could this mean that they will stop being as innovative as they have been or were they just wasting previous years expenditure on it ?
I fear the answer could be the former, but as I am very far from being a scientist I'll leave that for others to conclude.

[earwacks] 22/8/2024 07:29

I think the cost savings and margins show how profitable this will be if the second half weighting numbers are achieve.‘Driving sustainable profitability with a strong pipeline’. Not my favourite stock interim statement but fingers crossed and it does look like they are well set up for success IMO. Gl

[nchanning] 22/8/2024 07:03

Forecasts are a bit weird , if they can break even on 5.6 m of h1 revenue , how do they not make a substantial profit with 14m of fy revenue at 80 % gross margin . Still think that revenue number looks ambitious but perhaps they don't need to hit it to make the 0.1m of adjusted PBT

[cerrito] 22/8/2024 07:02

A reminder that capital raising on AIM is not cheap. Gross proceeds of equity raise were£2624k and transaction costs £446k
No surprise that the Going Concern Statement was robust.

[jasperlachat] 20/8/2024 17:06

It was flagged within the trading update that the interims would be delivered in August.

[earwacks] 20/8/2024 12:36

Yes Fathom. I was wondering about that, and the years before that I believe. We pretty much know what interims are from the last update, so hopefully some news on what we can look forward to for the full monte. Preferably not a profit warning! GL all

[40 fathoms] 20/8/2024 12:10

Getting the interims out almost a month earlier than last year.

[bmcollins] 15/8/2024 13:13

Interesting stock this, I've only been in it for little more than 3 weeks but it has remained remarkably (deceptively?) steady but I like the grant & Liberium are very positive, so I'll wait & see.
It also appears not to be short of cash which is, to me, a big plus in AIM stocks presently.

[nchanning] 14/8/2024 07:14

Still an elevated risk of a profit warning here with no contract news forthcoming BUT encouraging to see comparator IXICO beat expectations and reference an uptick in the clinical trials environment

[earwacks] 07/8/2024 13:01

I suppose it’s a positive to see everything nice and calm here with all the fireworks going on in many places. I tend to sit on my hands in these circumstance as it is not at all clear what is actually going on. A lot of unrest, elections, change of leaders and war, and perhaps the biggest statement about banks having to fend for themselves if it does go wrong. Interesting timing. Normally in times past I would have expected the crash that half occurred to be more than a one day wonder under such circumstances. One things for sure there are a lot of gullible easily manipulated idiots in the media these days

[40 fathoms] 23/7/2024 23:20

Dowgate put the mid year net cash at 1.1 million and due to prepayments on the expected large second half contract wins, forecast that net cash number to rise to 2.8 million at year end.

It is clear there are a number of contracts to close during the second half. The rise in forecast net cash coming from these prepayments would suggest @ 15 million worth of contracts to be signed. From an accounting viewpoint this will also be almost all net margin as it will principally be the 100% margin software licence sale. Accounting profits will also be much higher than in the analysts forecasts as it is clear they will have to write up the Monument Therapeutics position. They are going to beat the analysts forecast for profit, if not revenue, by a decent margin.

The possible hard to predict upside potential is supplied by any progress at Monument Therapeutics, any progress with the Diagnostic/Healthcare Opportunities, any possible partnership with large pharma to provide product and then there is always the next step of the work they have done for Apple, who have indicated that they are looking to build on the Intuition Study.

[earwacks] 23/7/2024 14:27

Can see why they had to do a placing. Reckon nearly 70 percent of revenue weighted to second half. Think 15 million will be a bit of a stretch, but who knows, weirder things have happened. Longer term there is a very bright future . Life science is still struggling at the moment. will be interesting to see EKF update shortly

[bmcollins] 23/7/2024 12:52

Having seen the update today I have dipped my toe into this stock, been following it for a while but kept prevaricating before the update.
Seems like it has a decent chance of succeeding to me.

[jasperlachat] 23/7/2024 11:41

Wishful thinking perhaps but I think we will start to see a flow of contracts now that Cog has strengthened its balance sheet and evidenced its shareholder support.

[cerrito] 23/7/2024 09:23

Reading the interim results of SThree the specialist STEM recruiter and the 16% reduction YOY in their life sciences fee income because of reduced global activity,I was reminded of the heavy going that COG has been having in getting new orders.

[cerrito] 23/7/2024 08:30

I see the market has yawned with the TU which is not surprising given what we were told at the fundraising.
Fingers crossed that Panmure Liberum's forecast for a profitable and a positive FCF 2025 come true.I am going on the basis that I can go to sleep on this till the interims come out although hopefully a news flow of new orders will keep us awake.

[yump] 12/7/2024 18:58

Looks like a few people noticed it.