Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 23/7/2024 09:23

Reading the interim results of SThree the specialist STEM recruiter and the 16% reduction YOY in their life sciences fee income because of reduced global activity,I was reminded of the heavy going that COG has been having in getting new orders.

[cerrito] 23/7/2024 08:30

I see the market has yawned with the TU which is not surprising given what we were told at the fundraising.
Fingers crossed that Panmure Liberum's forecast for a profitable and a positive FCF 2025 come true.I am going on the basis that I can go to sleep on this till the interims come out although hopefully a news flow of new orders will keep us awake.

[yump] 12/7/2024 18:58

Looks like a few people noticed it.

[40 fathoms] 11/7/2024 07:29

Link to the Innovate UK announcement.

[bedford1976] 04/7/2024 16:47

I expect the share price to drift back up to the 50 pence range by month end. I'm confident we have profitability now in sight, and the when the profits do come in then a hefty bounce up to £1.

[earwacks] 04/7/2024 15:44

Decided on balance to take up what I was refunded plus a couple extra. Let’s hope a few contracts come through before interims. Gl all

[earwacks] 03/7/2024 08:17

No I’m talking about the placing in 2020 @ 20p. The year before they did a fund raise at 72p. Bumpy road!

[jasperlachat] 03/7/2024 06:57

40p placing!

[earwacks] 03/7/2024 06:12

Brett Sheradon Gordon is now the third largest holder with 3630000 shares. He took part in the 20p placing, like the directors but also topped up positions quite a bit higher. Would think they are somewhere near break even or a bit better. The directors have also awarded themselves options I see. Poised but holding back on investing any more at the moment. Seems a strange time for some of these bigger sells after placing. Very mindful that there could be a bigger weighting to second half. This seems to be becoming a common theme across sectors at the moment. Could be a fair bit of dusty settling after all these elections.

[bedford1976] 02/7/2024 09:13

Not sure who this guy is but the RNS states he lives in Hong Kong, but it does look like he took a chunk of the placing.

[earwacks] 01/7/2024 20:59

Wonder if Brett Gordon was the investor with his own portion of placing earmarked . Increased holding by1.6 per cent to 8.7 per cent on June 27th.

[earwacks] 01/7/2024 14:25

Thanks Jasper. I can’t see why it wouldn’t. Not like they have to clear anything, because they haven’t bought or sold anything. Finally came through this evening! Not a great sum, but with recent dividends enough to make a decent purchase and a lot more than I got in the placing

[jasperlachat] 01/7/2024 12:33

Came back straight away on all accounts (Fidelity UK).

[earwacks] 01/7/2024 11:32

Anyone else still waiting for refund from scaleback of placing. Have contacted my broker twice now and they say they have still not been reimbursed, but are monitoring the situation. What situation? Its pretty straightforward surely.

[yump] 27/6/2024 20:39

You were wise to wait until I had bought a few, as the price usually drops a bit afterwards, regardless of what it does a month later !

[bedford1976] 27/6/2024 14:18

Just managed to top up today at a nice price. I cannot forsee this going much lower.

[earwacks] 25/6/2024 18:35

Still ‘yet to receive refund’ from scale back. They are monitoring the situation. So am I! Actually I don’t mind if they leave it till the Agm on Friday . Shares have a funny habit of dipping after an Agm . No idea why. I suppose it’s all the remuneration they like to award themselves

[yump] 25/6/2024 08:37

40F

Thanks for that and your history of informative posts - I’ve read a lot of them !

A few at 3-4mln on top of a regular run of the 2mln ones would certainly jump the profits, given the apparent gearing.

If there is a good time to buy then now seems pretty good. I’d seen COG before but I’m ultra cautious with anything medical (there seems to be almost inevitable hype with anything new) as have been caught a couple of times in stocks going nowhere, although to be fair they were both dependent on selling into the NHS.

I’ve got a few HVO which at least like COG is selling to commercial customers who are also trying to make profits.

[40 fathoms] 25/6/2024 00:04

@bedford1976 - They are already international in their reach and the significant percentage of their revenue is generated outside of the UK. This is mainly done directly and not via partnership. That said they do have an exclusive partnership for the China market and they have talked in the past about the possibility of non exclusive partnerships with CROs and certain Pharma. This aside I think most likely partnerships are likely to be technology based rather than geographical. The recent ActiGraph partnership being a good example. The other areas they have suggested they would look to partnership is for the healthcare and diagnostics opportunity.

@Yump - For the potential size and scope of larger contracts you can look at Cogstate listed in Australia. They have a contracted order book in excess of US$100 million and in the last 3 or 4 years they have signed 1 contract in excess of US$10 million and one in excess of US$ 25 million. The larger one was for Eli Lilly and they worked on the Donanamab Phase III trial, which are currently with the FDA for approval. Both of these contracts were for providing work in to Phase III AD trials (AD is Cogstate's core area. About half of these amounts is accounted for by the provision of raters and rater training, which COG does not provide, so these numbers would need to be cut by 50% to get a sense of what a very large contract for COG might look like. In the next 24/36 months it is a certainty that we will see numerous contracts in excess of GBP 3 million and maybe one or two that tops GBP 5 million.

[yump] 24/6/2024 17:09

Will probably buy a smattering of shares. Its quite interesting looking around for ex-hyped stuff after disillusionment has set in with the share price, despite businesses that are actually increasing revenues. They get the same treatment as the ones that don't have any revenue trend, or a reducing one.

Not a fan of brokers targets - they don't have their own money invested and no way buying because someone else has.

I think I saw that COG made a statement a while ago that they were expecting to grow faster than the overall market - think it was in a fairly recent report.

Tricky part is knowing the best time to buy. The p/e ratios are pretty irrelevant early on, often looking very high, but that doesn't matter if there are profit jumps in a couple of years.

[bedford1976] 24/6/2024 11:58

The brokers have a price target of £1.59 on Cambridge Cognition, and one of the major shareholders is Nigel West who is known for backing winners.
I'm expecting good progress as the market they are in is growing at 17% per year right up to 2030.
I would expect profitability will come in leaps and bounds over the next few years. I am wondering if they will enter markets globally with partnerships in markets like France, Germany, Spain, Japan etc then the potential is going to be huge.

[yump] 24/6/2024 09:53

Just having a look here as appears to be on the verge of profitability that actually supports the share price and in theory gearing might surprise.

I note it appears to have had the covid medical hype boost, as other medical stocks and reality has now bitten.

Curious to find out if there are examples of larger contract value somewhere (not necessarily here), as they have been mentioned. Not sure yet if revenue growth is a long slow process of small contracts or whether there is the possibility of a step-change.

Slightly disconcerting that the cost cutting might be a result of shareholder pressure, at a time when they have 5+ years of revenue growth.

If they expect some lumpy contracts, then cost-cutting doesn’t show a lot of confidence.

Bit like packing the England team with defenders because we don’t think we’ll score !

[earwacks] 22/6/2024 21:52

Octopus increased holding from 4-9 percent. That’s a fair chunk of the placing

[earwacks] 21/6/2024 15:36

Lucky you Jasper! Got straight on to Jarvis. Normally pretty good but they are waiting on the money being returned.very confusing I have six transactions listed for the two purchases. Always seems to happen to me. That was my plan to buy more with returned cash when I get it. I agree it looks very promising, but a lot of companies complaining about delayed decisions on contracts. Election obviously doesnt help and what is happening in Europe, not to mention the awful conflicts. Gl

[jasperlachat] 21/6/2024 11:21

Cash returned Wednesday here. Have purchased more. Recent shareholder support and strengthened balance sheet will be a big positive for prospective clients. Pretty content.