Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[somerset lad] 17/5/2024 10:39

Thank you 40 Fathoms.

Personally, FWIW, and in line with your comments from a few posts ago, I expect the orders will come back in size at some point as the freezes on biopharma spending are released; and that those orders will translate into quite material earnings given the £1.5m + > £2.0m costs savings and c. 80% GM; this view seems consistent with the Panmure numbers.

There's a lot of liquidity at the moment -- have been able to buy in size at c. 44.5p today and yesterday. Perhaps someone is a lot more pessimistic than me, but maybe the Winterlight consideration shares are still clearing without much attention to the prospects.

Overall, IMO the share price is still reflecting the past mistakes (Winterlight was too expensive if they'd got what they bargained for, and certainly too expensive when £1m of revenue evaporated and there was no deferred / contingent element to the consideration to protect COG, the more so when this forced them into the expensive debt). But the future is much more rosy looking at the profitable 2H23 and focus on sales and costs control.

[40 fathoms] 17/5/2024 10:14

They have FY24 revenue at 13.91mn, FY25 at 15.48mn and FY26 at 17.78mn

They have FY24 EBITDA at 1.03mn, FY25 at 2.53mn and FY26 at 3.78mn.

EPS FY24 -1.27, FY25 4.31 and FY26 8.63

[somerset lad] 17/5/2024 09:31

Is anyone with the Panmure note happy to share Panmure's revenue and EPS forecasts?

I have the Dowgate forecasts (2024 revenue £14.0m and adjusted EPS of 0.1p; 2025 revenue £16.0m and adjusted EPS of 1.3p). As there are only two brokers I should be able to calculate Panmure's from the consensus figures on Sharepad and Stocko. But ...

Sharepad has 2024 forecasts of £14.0m revenue and 0.1p EPS, implying that Panmure has the same forecasts as Dowgate (or Sharepad has failed to factor in Panmure's numbers).
Stocko has 2024 forecasts of £14.0m revenue and 1.1p EPS. Is their higher EPS forecast out of date or does Panmure have a higher EPS figure than Dowgate?

Sharepad has 2025 forecasts of £15.7m revenue and 2.8p EPS (cf. Dowgate at 1.3p). Stocko has the same revenue but 5.1p EPS. So it looks like Panmure has a lower revenue forecast than Dowgate but a higher EPS forecast (though at least one of the providers is reporting incorrect data).

Sharepad has 2026 forecasts of £17.8m revenue and 8.63p EPS. As Dowgate doesn't go out to 2026, and there are only two brokers, either these figures are wrong or they're Panmure's forecasts.

[jasperlachat] 17/5/2024 08:43

Thanks “Fathoms”;, excellent summary. Incredibly low Market Cap here; we really go out of our way in the UK to have a downer on innovation. No doubt vulnerable to a bid I’m afraid. Would have to go for many multiples imo.

[40 fathoms] 17/5/2024 00:21

It is pretty clear to me that they have a couple of very large contracts they are waiting to close but they have no control over timing. Most of any additional revenue won and booked this year will come from the initial software sale, given the time required to start a trial. So if they are to book 2 - 4 million this year from the up front software sale this implies 6 to 12 million of total contract value. I also note that in the preliminary results they also said this " revenue is expected to be in the range of £13.0m to £15.0m for 2024, although the Company continues to engage in discussions with strategic partners that could deliver revenue above this level. "

It is also probably worth reminding ourselves that the visibility they have over their pipeline is very high. So most of the work they bid on is not competitive in the sense that they are supplying a commodity like service. Often there will be no validated alternative or they are already embedded in the clinical trials process as an primary or secondary endpoint so it would be a huge decision not to use them and not one based on cost.

I am not too worried about the share price I am sure whatever is causing the weakness will soon pass.

[earwacks] 16/5/2024 17:13

Need some contract news asap to stop the rot. They say they have ‘healthy visibility’ on contracts for rest of year 69 percent with top ten existing long established customers. Weighted towards second half. They need about 4 million to meet bottom end of 13-15 million revenue target. Let’s hope they can do a bit better than that with further cost
reductions. No RNS about institution sells. Hope it stays that way.

[bedford1976] 16/5/2024 15:22

Share price drifting back to vulnerable to a bid territory.

[earwacks] 01/5/2024 16:30

Channing. A tad alarmist imo. Not even at the end of year 1 on the loan note front. (6/7months).Delayed contracts always gives the market jitters. Disappointing reaction again to results as forecast in January. Apart from anything else they have a valuable 25 percent stake in Monument. Have a listen to podcast Fathom highlighted last week. Apart from that should be profitable this year.

[nchanning] 01/5/2024 10:39

This remains balanced on a knife edge imo . They might be able to reach 20m in revenue with the same cost base with the very high gross margin dropping through to 3-4m a year net profit , and a market cap well north of 100m . Or a couple of contracts miss they're still loss-making with debt payments falling due needing to do a placing in an unforgiving market

[cerrito] 01/5/2024 09:53

Good that they have appointed a Chief Commercial Officer and if we are to have an IMC type event or practical for me to get to the AGM I would want to explore the focus of his / her activities over the next 9 months and to see what capacity constraints COG have.

[40 fathoms] 01/5/2024 08:27

Cerrito,

I have just had a very quick look at the Dowgate cash flow that you highlighted. The repayment is captured but I agree with you it is not explicit and it is not the way that I would do it.

They are showing net cash *net of debt. So they are assuming that the amortisation payments will be made from the gross cash held. So as we have more total/gross cash than the level of debt they are just assuming we make those repayment from that gross cash level. You will note that they capture the interest payments in the cash flow.

So in essence they have assumed we have taken the cash from the loan but as we have not needed to touch it ,we are just returning it to them in line with the repayment schedule. The closing net cash number that they use is the amount of cash held in addition to the cash held against the loan and which is being returned to the lender in line with the repayment schedule.

[cerrito] 01/5/2024 07:58

Silly me, made a modest top up in the last few days.
Can understand the decline in the share price this morning.
Too bad no IMC type event.
Yes good H2 2023.
No major alarm in going concern statement.I see Dowgate(of whom I know nothing) seem to forecast a positive FCF this year and next but their cash flow forecast does not seem to factor in loan repayments.
Back to sleep.

[40 fathoms] 01/5/2024 07:02

Lots of pleasing things in the preliminary final results. The Business is forecast to profitable this year and on a go forward basis. From a longer term perspective this is a big deal as it means we are a commercial business, we are no longer a R&D business !

[40 fathoms] 01/5/2024 03:36

Cambridge, UK – 30 April 2024: Cambridge Cognition, a leading provider of digital health solutions for brain health assessment, has announced that The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Disease Research will incorporate its CANTAB® cognitive assessments into the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI).

The landmark initiative will use Cambridge Cognition’s technology to identify the cognitive profile of Parkinson’s Disease patients within the study. This effort aims to enhance understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the disease, demystify its origins and identify interventions that could halt its progression.

[sspurt] 30/4/2024 08:18

Figs tomorrow. I am looking forward to hearing progress, then again perhaps not..

[jasperlachat] 25/4/2024 08:14

Thanks “Fathoms”;. Saves me having to explain to Wifey why we’re are invested.

[40 fathoms] 23/4/2024 07:27

I am not sure this is all of the exciting news from Monument. In the CEOs LinkedIn post announcing this she says there should be more exciting news to share soon. They have a second program and other possible indicators that both of these programs might address.

[earwacks] 23/4/2024 07:02

Excellent summary again Fathom. It occurred to me that Monument could end up having a higher market cap than Cog at some stage. They did say they had some exciting news at the beginning of the year. I guess this is it!

[40 fathoms] 23/4/2024 06:27

Today's RNS confirms the Cambridge Cognitions equity in Monument Therapeutics is valued at @2 million based on the closed funding round. This compares to a carrying value of GBP65k. In addition the 12.5% royalty is worth considerably more than the equity. So at the mark from this recent funding round the value of Monument Therapeutics to Cambridge Cognition is in excess of 5 million. Should this or Monument's other drug enter phase II trials the total value will be significantly more than the current COG market cap.

Monument Therapeutics strategy is out-license Phase II drug development. So its possible, with a favorable outcome in this proof of mechanism trial, that in the next 12 months a deal could be reached with Pharma.

It is probably worth pointing out that Monument Therapeutics is not developing new drugs, its reformulating generic drugs and paring them with a digital biomarker to ensure they get to patients in which they will work. This should remove safety related risk from the clinical trials as these well known and widely used APIs.

[cerrito] 21/4/2024 07:22

Yes thanks from me as well,40 Fathoms, for the Monument Article.
I am going on the basis that COG did not contribute to the £1.5m and to me they seem optimistic talking about Phase 2 starting early next year. I see Monument ended 2022 with £1.2 m in cash but did a funding round in early 2023.
In the here and now, given that we were told in the January TS that the results will be out in April we should expect a Notice of Results RNS in the next few days

[earwacks] 20/4/2024 13:53

Great posts again Fathom. Thanks for that. Very interesting to hear the guy from Winterlight explaining the importance of Ai and its uses and integration.

[40 fathoms] 20/4/2024 11:10

Here is confirmation of the extra funding raised by Monument Therapuetics and it is to be used to take MT1988 in to the clinic, this has the potential to be very, very significant for Cambridge Cognition with it @25% equity stake and its 12.5% gross top line royalty. The also have a second biomarker and API for nueroinflamtion that is also about to enter the clinic.

"The funding kickstarts clinical development of MT1988, a novel fixed-dose combination drug for the treatment of cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia. MT1988 has shown excellent pre-clinical results, with substantial cognitive improvement produced by the combination of these two, well- characterised small molecules. The combination is also designed to remediate a prevalent off-target side effect associated with many similar nicotinic agonists. Other combination products have successfully used an analogous pharmacological approach to improve side-effect profiles. For example, KarXT is a combination therapy of two muscarinic agonists for the treatment of schizophrenia that was the lead asset of Karuna Therapeutics, Inc., who were recently acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb for a total equity value of $14 billion2.

Schizophrenia affects around 20 million people worldwide1, however there are no approved treatments for the common and disabling cognitive impairment associated with the disorder. MT1988 is targeting these cognitive symptoms, which are extremely costly for society and profoundly impact the affected individuals and their quality of life.

Monument Therapeutics applies a unique novel drug development strategy, leveraging digital assessments of cognition to match patients with new pharmaceutical treatments. The first human study of MT1988 will begin within weeks. If successful, a Phase 2 clinical trial is expected to begin early 2025."

[40 fathoms] 20/4/2024 10:49

This is worth listening to gives a very good insight in to what Cambridge Cognition does, where it is going and the huge scope they have to grow. This is on a P/E of 10x next year ... truly, truly insane.

[40 fathoms] 17/4/2024 06:56

A useful tool for any Company that is registered in UK

[earwacks] 17/4/2024 05:35

Thanks for that Fathom. I don’t know how you find out this info, but gratefully received! Sounds like it could still make a useful contribution if a little way off. I find it quite extraordinary what some of these companies do and what they hopefully will contribute, probably before my time is up!