Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 20/6/2024 07:59

Looks like I got about a quarter of my total application. Not that bothered but hope they return the rest of my cash from the application soon! Go and get some contracts now please Mr Stork

[earwacks] 19/6/2024 09:03

287 percent uptake in Pi placing. Don’t think there will be much excess to share around. Will wait to see how the market reacts when the placing shares hit the streets. Would have liked more but fortuitously topped up in Avg yesterday before the surprise early update this morning. Hard to see how the market is going to react to news in the short term. Seems to me to have lost its recent enthusiasm but obviously Cog placing has been very well supported. Gl

[40 fathoms] 19/6/2024 06:49

Dowgate put out a new note post raise.

The takeaways are there are several large contracts expected to drop in 2H. If that happens and they hit the GBP 14 million forecast revenue they will do EBITDA of GBP 500k and end the year with GBP 2.8 million of net cash. With EBITDA increasing to GBP 900k, Net cash increasing to GBP4.2 million on GBP 16 million revenue in 2025.

[earwacks] 06/6/2024 09:46

Not sure I would have a lot of input at Agm with Cog. I have attended a few meetings over the years. Quite a mixed bag. I prefer online meetings these days like IMC and fund manager interviews and podcasts can be useful.
Basically I think this could be a winner over time, though this has to be the last raise surely. Reasonably low share count still which is a plus. Sign up for alerts
Thanks once again for that (the report comment)Fathom.

[40 fathoms] 06/6/2024 09:40

I am happy to see that the going concern statement in annual report is whistle clean.

I think the bigger issue is all of the small caps leaving their AGMs until the last possible day before suspension.

[greyingsurfer] 06/6/2024 08:30

So your complaint that they do not like retail investors is based upon the fact that their AGM clashes with another. Presumably you think they should have rung you to check first?

[earwacks] 06/6/2024 08:18

Cerrito. The poor darlings are academics, doctors and professors! Not used to dealing with ordinary people. I see they have nabbed 150k shares between four directors, having taken a bunch at 22p. They did buy 10k each at £1.10. They probably think Pi’s have been shafted enough and wont take part. So they have thrown out a few crumbs. My offer is for about 250 shares. Miscalculated there.Cant be economical. The broker will charge them more. They have not disclosed the cost of placing. Have applied for twenty times my entitlement. Frankly I would rather directly invest in Monument. Dr Jenny Bartlett sounds a bit more savvy as a business person to me.

[cerrito] 06/6/2024 07:32

As mentioned above, they do not like retail investors now evidenced by the fact that they have moved the timing of their AGM forward to 9am.
I cannot go as another company where I am more heavily invested has an AGM that morning.

[earwacks] 04/6/2024 16:42

Thanks Fathom. I have 3 entries in my Pf for Cog. What I currently own, my entitlement and the excess I can apply for. I see they have an existing investor already lined up to take £400,000 of stock. Still a few days to decide. Just received my application forms from my broker. Has to be in by June 11th.

[40 fathoms] 04/6/2024 05:07

@earwacks you can apply for more than your pro-rata allocation should you wish to do so, as you can oversubscribe for shares.

I think the principle of allowing shareholders who wish to participate the opportunity to do so, is an important one. However, you are right that retail investors historically have very poor participation rates in open offers and most of the larger shareholders will have had the opportunity to participate via the placement.

[cerrito] 01/6/2024 20:18

Thanks for your 627, 40 Fathoms

[40 fathoms] 31/5/2024 13:58

@earwacks, I tend to agree with you that it will take the announcement of some larger contracts to change the market sentiment towards the stock.

[earwacks] 31/5/2024 13:37

Well done Fathom. You should be their PR guy! Doesn’t really matter what Stocko and the rest say. They have some substantial backers and there seems to me to be a real buzz about them and Monument. I don’t have the cash right now to take part in the placing June 14th I think, but will have some soon after. Will have to take my chances on the open market. Not likely to race away anytime soon I suspect, but in a year or so could be a very different story

[40 fathoms] 31/5/2024 12:49

I think there might be a misunderstanding about the nature of the eclinical transaction. There was no payment made for the business, as it was essentially bankrupt, we assumed the liabilities of the business.

In total we agreed to assume GBP 1.3 million of liabilities. 400k were payable as soon as the transaction closed and an additional 800k were payable as they fell due overtime. There was a further 400k that could be earned by eclinical shareholders if certain targets were met. This was to be settled in shares and not cash and was due in May 2024. So, If these shares are not issued today we know these conditions were not met.

As such there was never going to be a one off payment of 800k for the acquisition. The 800k was to cover the liabilities of the business and it will have been captured in the "cash flow from operations" number within the cashflow. The vast majority, if not all of it, will have been cleared in 2023.

[cerrito] 31/5/2024 11:21

I see no mention of this payment in the 2024 Dowgate cash flow forecast

[cerrito] 31/5/2024 11:17

40 Fathoms
The stockopedia comment got my attention as -Shame on me-I had overlooked this payment and I was struck that there was no mention of it in the prelims or that it was not spelt out in thr balance sheet.All will be revealed about this payment,which is not insignificant in the COG context, in the AR.

[40 fathoms] 30/5/2024 23:48

@cerrito - I am not sure I understand the issue the stockopedia writer is making here as the assumption of liabilities is well known and was in the brokers models. Is the issue that the payment was made and this has reduced liquidity buffers ? Or is it that the growth at eclinical has been less than expected and hence the share payment was not made ?

[cerrito] 30/5/2024 21:01

There was quite a negative blog on Stockopoedia where the blogger pointed out
The deferred consideration terms of eclinical as per the October 12th 2022 RNS and the following
Quote
The total consideration for the acquisition will be up to approximately £1.7 million, comprising an initial cash payment at completion of the acquisition of £0.4 million, and up to a further £0.8 million of additional cash consideration payable in or before May 2024.
Unquote
I could see no reference to this in the text of the recently issued prelims or indeed last year’s interims nor is such a payment obvious from the balance sheet. No doubt in the AR when we get it there will be a note saying that this payment was not payable.
I found that the AGM will be on June 27 and on the basis that it is in the HO outside Cambridge at 10 as it has been for at least the last 2 years, I hope I can make it.

[bedford1976] 30/5/2024 14:13

Comments here are spot on the company is moving towards healthy profitability with good gross margins, but why lose out on some great opportunities just because of tight cashflow.
In a couple of years I am personally aiming for a share price of £2.00. I cannot find another company like Cambridge Cog on the AIM market in such a good niche market which is growing at 17% per annum.

[40 fathoms] 30/5/2024 08:22

Not a chance this will be taken out cheaply, based on the fact that less than 50% of investors vote at GMs any of the top 5 shareholders could block a traditional T/O and any 2 of the top 5 would be able to block a T/O via a scheme of arrangement.


I also do not see the comparison to POLX or Surface transforms as valid. This is a highly profitable business basically at the cash flow breakeven line (to the extent they have issues they are working capital issues), they still have plenty of flexibility over their expenses in bear case scenarios and as we have just seen a group of highly supportive shareholders. The game for them is not survival, it is balancing investment in growth against operating cash flow and that would appear to be the purpose of the CR.

It was interesting to see they are going to start commiting (small) resources in the healthcare space. Very significant potential in that area in the long run. I don't want to be rampy so I will not mention the name but I think it is pretty easy based on various sources of public information to work out one of the names they are talking to in this area. If they were able to conclude an agreement I have no idea of what it might be worth but in terms of size and quality the company is as good as it gets.

[horseyphil] 30/5/2024 07:59

The partnership with ActiGraph is a great opportunity for ArchiMed to size up the company, its potential, its possible synergies with other companies in the ArchiMed stable etc. If it likes what it sees, every chance that it will make an approach at this depressed share price. Very vulnerable to a low-ball offer.

[nchanning] 30/5/2024 07:47

At least they did it early , if they waited until a poor trading update they could have been in the death spiral which hit companies like Polarean and Surface transforms . Still waiting for evidence that the company is sustainably cash generative before backing up the truck as the cash position is still tight

[cerrito] 29/5/2024 16:21

I guess the reason there was no IMC type event or indeed ,as far as I can see , no announcement of the AGM was that they were working on the funding raise and the share price movement-or lack of it-suggests there was no news leakage.
For me the price and the discount to the share price is par for the course even though this is not am emergency raise.
Do not see myself going into the open offer as I have a sneaky feeling I will be able go pick up sub 40p in thr next month.