Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 24/2/2024 23:55

Midas write up in Mail.




"Last year was difficult for Stork and his team. Hit by slower economic growth and rising costs, many drug firms scaled back testing activity. Cambridge Cognition still increased sales by 7 per cent to £13.5 million, but made an operating loss of £1.2 million.

Conditions improved in the second half, however, orders are growing and brokers expect revenues of £16 million and profits of £600,000 for 2024, rising materially over the next few years."

[40 fathoms] 21/2/2024 12:46

@Cerrito

I think we must be looking at different Dowgate notes. The one I have shows (on page 3) net cash at the end of 2024 going up by @300k and this is after reducing the gross debt to 2.1 million. This would seem to suggest that the ongoing repayments are captured.

[cerrito] 21/2/2024 12:21

Read the Dowgate comment on this morning's RNS and very sensibly they have not adjusted their forecasts.
I revisited their forecasts for this year and pleased to see that they have a FCF of £200k but note that they did not include the £900k in loan repayments due this year.

[earwacks] 21/2/2024 12:09

Brett Gordon added another .8 percent taking his holding to over 7 per cent.would be kicking myself if I missed out completely on this price. Seems like there maybe some overhang still if .8 percent cant shift the share price Have to think seriously about making some more funds available. Dont really like the doldrum state of the market so far this year, but encouraging to see stocks like cmcx recover and my broker Jarvis come to that! Gl all

[jasperlachat] 21/2/2024 08:28

Indeed nice partnership but my sights are drawn to their ultimate parent - ArchiMed. A very large and acquisitive private equity firm.

[40 fathoms] 21/2/2024 07:21

"Cambridge Cognition Holdings plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce a new strategic partnership with ActiGraph, a leading provider of wearable technologies for clinical trials. The partnership will deliver a broad suite of assessments to provide a fully rounded view of mental and physical capabilities. With both companies holding leading positions in their respective markets, it is anticipated that the co-promotion planned under the agreement will support growth in market share in the future."

Looks like a very sensible partnership.

[40 fathoms] 05/2/2024 00:33

Hi Earwacks, I am not sure if they plan to change things going forward but historically they do not issue options to NEDs. The Chairman has some options because he used to be an employee, so these have not come from his NED role.

[earwacks] 31/1/2024 00:36

Perhaps I’m being a bit harsh, but I expect they will get great options too. Half the revenue for this year already in the bag apparently which is encouraging.

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 23:18

I thought the purchase was pretty decent given he had only been appointed for 12 hours. He already has more shares than one of the NEDs who has been there for 3 or so years.

[earwacks] 30/1/2024 22:41

Hopefully the TU has halted the downward spiral. Not an overly adventurous new non exec purchase, but grateful for small mercies. I did wonder if the placing might have been a better option last year. Possibly advised against. In the grand scheme I guess all comes out in the wash. The loaner has options to subscribe for warrants 770k around 75p, which is encouraging

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 13:15

Announced today. Obviously not significant enough to RNS but revenue is revenue and it is also pretty interesting project with potential follow on opportunities.

[lawson27] 30/1/2024 09:35

Joined you for the recovery here, right sector for 2024 imo, GLA

[nchanning] 30/1/2024 09:24

Slightly confusing update as to how operating profit could be so far ahead of expectations whilst cash was far behind . If the current run rate of profitability is sustainable this is looking very interesting . Layer on some revenue growth with these gross margins and something spectacular could happen here

[jasperlachat] 30/1/2024 09:21

Happy with the update. Thanks 40 Fathoms.

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 08:42

@Cerrito - I can't imagine there will be any going concern issue. Dowgate pegs the current (31/12/23) net cash postion +@200k. On current outlook 2024 should be profitable and comfortably cashflow positive*. It is also worth remembering how the cash vs recognition works on most contracts. They get a significant amount of payment on the software sale which is at the start of any trial.

*They indicated at the time of purchase of both Winterlight and Clinpal that based on the book of business at the time of acquisition they would not be significantly revenue/cash generative until 2024.

[cerrito] 30/1/2024 08:21

Yes 40 Fathoms good to see H2 profitability results and indeed H2 revenue at £7.5m, but revenue increase 2023 over 2022 disappointing given acquisitions.
I see cash has gone up since June 30 by £1.3m from £1.9m to £3.2m following the £3m loan so a cash burn of £1.7m and this will increase in April once they start repaying the loan.Reading the Going Concern statement when they publish the AR will be interesting.
Difficult for me to see basis for significant relating of shares.

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 07:17

Excellent trading update, everything seems nicely ahead of expectations and a couple of decent new board additions to boot.

[bedford1976] 24/1/2024 18:07

Purchased a few more of the a ridiculously low price 49.80 pence. Crazy price the cognitive assessment market is growing at roughly 30% a year right through to 2030. Nice to see a British business one of tfe market leaders in this sector. I also live on the Oxford - Cambridge arc so keen to see them do well.

[40 fathoms] 21/1/2024 04:26

Is about 1.5 years out of date but gives a bit of an insight in to where Monument Therapeutics was and what it does.

[earwacks] 18/1/2024 20:47

Many thanks yet again Fathom. Looking forward to Monument news, as indeed cog end of month. Not expecting to much movement up yet. Even record results don’t impress at the moment! Gl

[40 fathoms] 15/1/2024 13:08

@earwacks - A bit of a difficult one to pin down exactly but if we assume, as appears to be the case, they are making good progress in both of the initial indications they are targeting, then we are probably looking at a total value for Monument of GBP 12.5 million - GBP 20 million at current valuation. However, if they were able sell on either drug they are developing, both of which are focused on large indications, it will be in GBP 100's of millions.

As a point of reference when they first spun out and raised capital the valuation of Monument was already @GBP 5 million and we have seen a significant amount of progress since then. I think it is worth keeping in mind the approach they are taking as it significantly increases the chances of success.

We hold a 25% stake in Monument and have a double digit, gross top line royalty over all sales and that is worth more than the equity position.

[earwacks] 07/1/2024 02:54

Thanks for the updates Fathom. I guess the next results won’t tell us much in terms of figures, but very keen to buy more at these levels when funds allow . Looks insanely oversold, but depends how the market react to results end of month. Any idea of market cap for Monument? Looks a tiny company.

[40 fathoms] 05/1/2024 00:24

Things ticking along at Monument Therapeutics - as an aide-memoire Monument Therapeutics was spun out of Cambridge Cognition about 2.5 years ago. We own @ 25% of the equity, we have a double digit top line gross royalty on all commercial proceeds and we own, with recent patents in place, the underlying technology for both of the digital biomarkers that will be paired with both APIs that they are developing. All of this sits in our books for less than 100k.

Jenny Barnett, Monument CEO and former Cambridge Cognition CSO added this comment when posting this news to her LinkedIn page

"We've got a *lot* of exciting news to share in the coming months :-)"

So it looks like there is more to come from this direction.

[40 fathoms] 29/12/2023 00:03

For ease of digestion I have posted this summary rather than the paper itself. It demonstrates the power of the Winterlight technology and in diagnostics applications in indications beyond those traditionally viewed as the BIG CNS conditions.

[40 fathoms] 16/12/2023 03:07

@Cerrito - There has been more integration than the website would appear to suggest. In particular if you look at the academic posters that have been produced this year they are clearly presented jointly and also that a number of Winterlight labs staff have taken on senior roles within the Cambridge Cognition Group.

@Smithie6 - I think it might be worth taking a second glance - Was profitable last year and management say will be next year and beyond. Was also cashflow positive the year before last, last year and should be next year and beyond. Clearly this year will be both loss making and cash flow negative, principally due to the effect of integrating two loss making divisions via acquisition.