Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[vanadiumx] 05/5/2020 11:38

They need to employ a decent PR firm.

[sikhthetech] 05/5/2020 10:48

Dan, Good post.

Both the company TU (March) and the company broker, Finncap, update was published ONE WEEK before fy end and on the SAME DAY as the lockdown became effective, 23rd March.


"I thought that they'd have a big demand uplift in February and March"

The TU of March 23rd clearly states:

"We have seen a very substantial increase in demand for the full range of our infection prevention and control technologies over the last seven weeks, following broad recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe"



On the same day, 23rd March Finncap, their broker stated:

"Also, a positive trading update, highlighting the demand for products in light of COVID-19, supports full-year forecasts, which could yet be bettered depending on the ability to fulfil the current £1.7m order book (c.5x normal levels). "



Therefore, they clearly state there was a substantial increase in demand since beginning of Feb (last seven weeks). And their statement clearly shows the West was in fact worried!!!


And Finncap's statement clearly states 'supports full year forecasts' and 'bettered' depending on the order book..



"Also, a positive trading update, highlighting the demand for products in light of COVID-19, supports full-year forecasts, which could yet be bettered depending on the ability to fulfil the current £1.7m order book (c.5x normal levels). "





Therefore, even ONE WEEK before the fy end, they were confident of at least forecasts being met and even bettered.

Yet they failed - revenue, ebitda and cash forecasts.


EBITDA - It's pointless stating they will beat 'positive' EBITDA, as stated in their interims - it's meaningless...

Given the March 23rd TU was ONE WEEK before year end, they would likely have known that this so called 'material' deal is unlikely to close that week so I don't buy the argument that they were expecting it to close before year end.

[huckle9] 05/5/2020 09:34

Great post. I am also in Tristel but the risk reward isnt the same there as here. If Byotrol can get things right this time then the share price could be worth 10x it is now.. if it doesn't then that is probably it here. Last chance saloon?

[rimau1] 05/5/2020 08:42

Great post 1gw, fully agree. You have previously said that byot should provide underlying pre one offs and should have also quantified the delayed sale so that we could have had an apples vs apples performance to understand if it was an earnings miss or not. Matbe they need to hire someone with investor relations experience although had to justify as a micro cap!

[rimau1] 05/5/2020 08:37

Interesting posts all, i promised sickinthehead i would not repeat anything! Dan - couple of observations from me, big demand in Feb and March does not necessarily translate into sales without a time lag and lets face it in March i could still sit in a stadium with 65,000 including 8,000 madrid fly in’s, so the west was not so worried. Also if Byot had smashed expectations to FY20 you would not be able to buy at these levels. Tristel is proven high quality and you pay a premium as a result. Here you get what you pay for. If mgt deliver (on FY21 sales and US strategy) expect a similar rating to tristel. If not then sickinthehead will be proved right. Its all about FY21 not quarterly guidance (which there is no requirement or justification to provide) and i am invested on that basis. I hold tristel too and adjust my position here and there depending on price moves as they have a small inverse correlation which is nice to take advantage of.

[1gw] 05/5/2020 08:11

I think the issue there is transparency and visibility again. They did only £2.2m in 1H. So £6m for the full year is a strong 2H performance in some respects and I talked to at least 1 investor who thought at interims stage that £6m for the full year looked very challenging.

But what none of us knows is what was built into finnCap's £6m forecast and what was built into byotrol's assessment of the doability of that forecast. If byotrol were relying on the "material but delayed new license contract" closing by the end of March (and making a material contribution to FY20 revenue) then they may have felt comfortable with the £6m finnCap number even though they knew "organic" sales were going to fall short of that number.

In terms of byotrol's own guidance to the market they were clearly focusing on the EBITDA number which they stated in the interims they were confident would be "positive". And again in their 23rd March TU they talked about exceeding this guidance i.e. "positive" EBITDA. So was £0.25m adjusted EBITDA a beat against an EBITDA "positive" guide? And you could even question whether they were expecting to count the £0.4m exceptional gain in their EBITDA (as opposed to adjusted EBITDA) outturn.

[dan_the_epic] 05/5/2020 07:46

Why would they? If the IP was as so attractive to third parties, this company would not have been independent for this long IMO. Has been around for ages. I struggle to buy Tristel at their valuation despite being an excellently run company, but struggling with BYOT again as I just don't trust them to deliver. I'm still a bit shocked that they didn't blow their last financial year out of the water as I thought that they'd have a big demand uplift in February and March and revenue would be more like £7m.

[best1467] 05/5/2020 07:40

Their is no doubt issues with the running of the companies accounting but what is not in doubt is the IP and I believe a predator in the US will make an approach or a partner like Tristel could well make an approach

[the ghost who walks] 05/5/2020 07:25

I've been in this stock with an in price of between 1.5 to 2.6p, took some profits around 6p but am thinking of topping back up here following the trading update. I believe the next big catalyst will be news on the us business; if we can sell that or get into a meaningful joint venture I would exp3ct a big share price response.

[sikhthetech] 04/5/2020 20:40

rimau
"You rinse and repeat the same half dozen points every day."

Well, you have just REPEATED what you and the other other rampers have said several times before.
So you're a hypocrite...
The SAME 2 points, jam, jam...


"we expect significant growth in FY21 revenue and ebita (v FY20)."

They said the same thing only one week before the fy end, yet still missed the expectations.. Once bitten, twice shy, eh.

"Almost all companies in H1 TU’s have pulled forward guidance, BYOT have not. "
Byot have told you about firm orders to end of next month.

Where's the forward guidance for Q2?



A BB is better served when both bull and bear points are discussed... then at least readers can form their own opinion. After all it's their money...

[rimau1] 04/5/2020 19:59

Sickinthehead! You rinse and repeat the same half dozen points every day. Trading update - we expect significant growth in FY21 revenue and ebita (v FY20). That is full year to March 2021 forward guidance. Almost all companies in H1 TU’s have pulled forward guidance, BYOT have not. That shows confidence. They are experiencing exceptional demand that of course will likely slow down in this financial year but no-one can predict when demand will slow because it depends on the pandemic. As for SARS presenting a market opportunity the outbreak in 2003 was contained quickly and consequently only impacted parts of south east asia and canada. Sadly Covid is a very different beast and byot will be (correctly) judged on monetising hygiene demand with this disease. You are angry, why? let me help you.

[sikhthetech] 04/5/2020 18:26

Thecroots,

"Literally got a huge market presented to them now and THEY MUST embrace it and pull their finger out."

Exactly and that's what I've been saying... The TU shows that they're not, how can they not beat their pre-Covid19 expectations - the TU lacks clarity. It only shows visibility until end of next month!!!

As you say you bought in 2005, you would know that both Byot and Tristel IPO was that year, you would also know how they have performed since..


The same point about having a huge market presented to them also existed in a decade ago with Swine flu pandamic and SARS...

The company needs to provide clarity over their revenues and outlook. Why mention a 'material deal' without details, it raises more uncertainty.


Read the company newsflow...

[thecroots] 04/5/2020 17:23

I'm a recent holder. Saying that, i bought in 2005 ish and sold out for a loss about a year after. Not sure on exact dates but I know I made a loss.

My view, is that if they cant make a good go of it now, then they never will.

Literally got a huge market presented to them now and THEY MUST embrace it and pull their finger out.

Either that or someone will buy them out and use the technology.

[rimau1] 04/5/2020 13:08

The governments draft plan for getting back to work is huge for Byot IMO. Frequent cleaning and disinfecting and maintaining visibly high standards of cleaning and cleanliness. However you judge Byot’s past performance the future structural growth drivers are significant

[rimau1] 04/5/2020 13:08

The governments draft plan for getting back to work is huge for Byot IMO. Frequent cleaning and disinfecting and maintaining visibly high standards of cleaning and cleanliness. However you judge Byot’s past performance the future structural growth drivers are significant

[fizzypop] 04/5/2020 08:41

WheelieDealer
@wheeliedealer
·
15h
P8 of Shares Magazine reporting on #BYOT Results and suggests #TSTL might possibly beat Estimates at the end of June Update. It's clearly a very in demand product area being Infection Control. Cc @ZJS_Ret

[fizzypop] 04/5/2020 08:31

STT filtered

[eeza] 03/5/2020 21:53

I've also filtered STT - I like to read opposing arguments BUT he is repetitive to the point of boredom.

[melody9999] 03/5/2020 21:48

STT - comments noted. Don't need to read them again and again. You don't need to write them again and again either. You must have a vested interest / short position to be bothered. Filtered.

[sikhthetech] 03/5/2020 20:28

Piedro, "jam today"

absolutely, if anyone thinks Byot being a serial disappointer is historical and the company has changed, have a read of their recent newsflow, over the past 12months...


Last 12 months:


May 2019: they stated they they were 'close' to signing a 2nd National retailer in US.
Never happened - they failed.

" We are also now close to securing an additional new national retailer trial in the US. "



Sept 2019 - accounts published late - shares suspended

Last Sept, they didn't publish their accounts in time leading to their shares being suspended. Their accounts were not and never have been qualified.

Instead of getting their accounts qualified, they changed auditors recently - They failed to qualify their accounts

"The Directors have made every effort to resolve this matter to our auditor's satisfaction, without success. Whilst it may have been possible eventually to obtain a suitable response, the length of time this may have required was indeterminate, and the Board took the decision that the interests of shareholders were best served by publishing the accounts with the consequential qualified audit opinion but resulting in the lifting in the suspension from trading on AIM. Since the year end we have transferred over £86,000 of the aggregate amount from the bank concerned to another commercial bank and intend to transfer the balance shortly"




Sept 2019, Tristel deal announced, start late 2019

They announced Tristel partnership last year and it was due to launch late 2019. They failed to launch the deal on time.

"One such transaction has been completed post year
end with Tristel plc, for a surface sanitising product that combines their best-in-class chlorine dioxide chemistry,
with our long-lasting germ-killing technology; we expect this product to be launched in late 2019."




Sept 2019: Looking for US partner

Last Sept, they've announced they were searching for a partner in US. 8 months later and amidst the biggest pandamic in 100yrs, they still haven't announced one. They've failed to find a partner in 8 months.

" So, after much research and analysis, we have now concluded that we need a
US partner either financial or corporate to invest with us to accelerate growth and achieve acceptable returns. We have appointed advisors to assist in finding a suitable partner."




March 2020:

In March, ONE week before year end, they will exceed EBITDA.
Despite the huge increase in sales, they still failed to beat their pre-covid expectations. Critically why say that you're going to beat expectations then fail to do so.
They failed to beat revenue, EBITDA and cash expectations. Shocking.

"Byotrol’s results to 31 March 2020 are now expected to exceed the guidance given at the time of our interim results, where we confirmed our expectations of positive EBITDA for the full year."




These are ALL within the last 12 months. Given the above are over the past 12 months, why would anyone believe anything the BoD say ??


Read the company newsflow. BE AWARE OF THE PUMP/DUMP gang and posters telling you to filter or ignore the facts. Given the govn have said we're past the peak there is more urgency to pump/dump this.

[riddlerone] 03/5/2020 16:59

So let me get this right we should now be worried about the management,worried about margin,worried about forward guidance.......can anyone else see a pattern.So lets give you a better investment like one that has a PE of say 45 and has just signed a deal with that bad managed,low margin,not transparent BYOTROL.
One thing to say ,do your own research,call the company and speak to the directors and don't believe a word that you read on these boards investigate the company yourself.Everyone here has an agenda don't forget that

[eeza] 03/5/2020 16:27

He's sikhening for the filter.