Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 30/4/2020 13:29

A.Fewbob,

"obviously negotiating licence deals doesn’t happen overnight."

The initial patent was around 25yrs ago. They IPO was around 15yrs, so not overnight!!


Whatever happened to all those deals following the Swine flu pandanmic.. A DECADE AGO, so not overnight!!



"The significant increase in sales is in part due to the concern regarding swine flu; however it can also be attributed to a greater appreciation of the qualities, efficacy and broad applications of Byotrol. "
"We remain confident of the prospects for Byotrol "

Distributors & Parners


" Healthcare through our relationship with Synergy Health plc in Europe and through distributors in the US
* Food and beverage, both through distributors and direct sales
* Consumer products through our joint venture, Byotrol Consumer Products Ltd. "






yet, despite the huge increase in sales, they still had placings after Swine Flu outbreak...


29-08-15 .. £1.4m
25-06-14 .. £1.25m
25-06-13 .. £0.50m
21-10-11 .. £2.46m


It's nice to have an investment decision proven right so conclusively BY EVENTS.

[sikhthetech] 30/4/2020 13:11

Melody999

Byot have already stated that they expect the high levels of orders to ease...


"Whilst we EXPECT the current very high levels of demand to EASE at some stage over the course of FYE 2021"

[sikhthetech] 30/4/2020 13:10

Melody999
"the market will start look forward again:."

It's not good when a company presented with a huge opportunity is unable to even meet their expectations without Covid-19.


It's even more questionable that in the Covid TU, published only a month ago, they stated that they will exceed guidance in the interims... They never published any expectation figures in the interims. Their house broker did, yet they failed to meet those expectations, despite the huge sales due to covid19.



"Byotrol's results to 31 March 2020 are now expected to exceed the guidance given at the time of our interim results, where we confirmed our expectations of positive EBITDA for the full year. "

[a.fewbob] 30/4/2020 00:49

Not at all,

Bought Nivacyt, made a packet

Bought Avacta, made a packet

Also hold Synairgen which hasn’t risen. Need trial results, could go either way.

BYOT has been given a nice boost of momentum but obviously negotiating licence deals doesn’t happen overnight.

These will do exceptionally well over the next six months.

[brownson] 29/4/2020 11:45

A.Fewbobless

[tonytyke] 29/4/2020 10:13

Just added more on the dip today

[melody9999] 29/4/2020 10:04

May have missed expectations but that is all looking backwards and the market will start look forward again:.

From the 270420 TU:
Byotrol has been positioning for such trends for many years and expects them to favour technologies like ours, presenting exceptional growth opportunities for the Group.

Now expect FY2021 to be one of significant growth in both revenue and EBITDA.

And the 230320 TU:
Firm orders currently sit at £1.7m for deliveries to end of June, with many more orders still being processed. Historically our order book at this time of year has been around £0.35m

[fizzypop] 29/4/2020 09:36

Joined the party with 40,000 @ 5.2p
Registered as a sell, buying at the bid on LSE
Fall now reversing

[loafofbread] 29/4/2020 09:28

3.5p.

Are you taking the peez?

[eeza] 29/4/2020 09:22

Weak support at 5.00p else back down to 3.50p.

[1gw] 29/4/2020 08:55

The rocks being thrown at byotrol’s FY20 performance, in terms of failing to meet broker forecasts and unimpressive year-on-year comparisons, perhaps show why it would be good to get some more granularity into the reporting, either from byotrol itself, or through broker notes.

Year-on-year comparisons are complicated by the fact that Medimark was only in for 7 months or so of FY19 but also by the big Solvay contribution booked in FY19.

A starting point is perhaps to break down the performance between Medimark and the pre-Medimark business. Medimark is a growing product-sales-based business which is profitable, whereas pre-Medimark, byotrol performance was significantly influenced by individual deals such as the Solvay licensing deal, without which it would have been loss-making (adj EBITDA).

In FY19 in particular, I think there was a £1.9m revenue contribution booked from the Solvay deal.

Medimark.
£2.7m revenue FY18 (year-ending 31/3/2018)
£3.0m revenue FY19 (full year, not just post-acquisition)

Byotrol (excl Medimark contribution in FY19)
£1.8m revenue FY18 (as re-stated in FY19 accounts)
£3.9m revenue FY19 (incl £1.9m Solvay)

Without the Solvay deal, I think pro-forma Byotrol + Medimark (i.e. including 12 months of Medimark) would have been about £5.0m revenue in FY19. So £6.0m FY20, if it is all from underlying product sales, shows healthy underlying growth, but we do not yet know how much, if any, contribution there is in the FY20 number from “up-front̶1; licensing deals (i.e. non-recurring revenue not related to actual product sales).

(Errors excepted)

[sikhthetech] 28/4/2020 19:38

A.Fewbob,
"It’s the forward looking statement that counts."

Agree, the forward looking statement is what counts...

They state that they have a strong order book for the FIRST QUARTER, ie next TWO months, ending June. Rest is EXPECT, PRESENTING or Jam tomorrow and STILL ASSESSING MANY (not significant) orders.


Where's the visibility past next 2 months, Qtr 1 end June.??? Surely they would know if they had strong order book for Q2 as well.


Last year, the fy results were published Mid-Oct, although due Sept, so it could be still 5-6 months before there's any more clarity .


"We entered the new financial year with a strong order book exceeding £2m and expect to generate record sales from products (i.e. excluding licenses, royalties and technical development deals) in the first quarter of the year."
"There are also many additional orders STILL being assessed for deliverability
against the supply chain constraints being experienced across our whole industry sector."


"Whilst we EXPECT the current very high levels of demand to EASE at some stage over the course of FYE 2021"

[cumnor] 28/4/2020 17:00

Exactly afewbob-just a lightweight trying to deramp. Huge prospects here going forward. MMs will predictably spend a few days just feeding off the weak before they let it go again. With so much happening I don't think the company, or broker, are in a position to give forecasts, nor should mgmt even try at what is the most dynamic time of this company's life. Patience.

[a.fewbob] 28/4/2020 16:35

It’s the forward looking statement that counts.

[a.fewbob] 28/4/2020 16:34

How do???

How do you know that???????

Results were only to mid March you muppet.

[brownson] 28/4/2020 16:30

They certainly dont seem to have used the massive opportunity presented by covid as much as I hoped. The markets remain unimpressed. There seems to be a lack of dynamism

[sikhthetech] 28/4/2020 12:07

brownson, "market seems unimpressed"

As expected, they missed expectations despite the huge increase in orders due to Covid19.

Even though Expectations were EXCLUDING covid19, so excluding Covid19 sales. Actuals INCLUDE Covid19 sales.


Period, expectations, actuals

Revenue £6m, £6m
Adj EBITDA £0.4m £0.25m
Cash £2.6m, £1.7m





Cash balances have been declining for years..

fy2018 £3.85m
fy2019 £2.8m
H12020 £2.01m
fy2020 £1.7m

[a.fewbob] 28/4/2020 11:45

Well I bought some more.

That’s an extremely upbeat trading statement in a market which is booming and will continue to do so as this covid disease has brought hygiene to the forefront like never before.

When procurement stop panic buying and start thinking more carefully they will see that BYOT product is absolutely fantastic!!

[brownson] 28/4/2020 11:08

The market seems unimpressed.

[loafofbread] 28/4/2020 09:15

Any thoughts to why we didn't get a RNS on the 'massive' April deal they mention.

As you say, all the heavy lifting has been done.

Just a question of signing deals and selling.

Well done to the company.

[riddlerone] 28/4/2020 08:54

Thanks for all your input 1gw,as you say very encouraging and downside risk medium/long term very low.Usual selling after the fact but 2021 figures should be stellar.

[1gw] 28/4/2020 08:03

Just mulling over the TU, I think it would be difficult to imagine a more positive business outlook. This has been reflected at least in part by finnCap raising their target price from 7p to 9p. Clearly it must be very difficult to quantify the outlook in terms of high-confidence revenue and profit expectations given the uncertainties, and perhaps the company felt that it was enough to make the qualitative statements given how positive they were. The company will have a chance to update on 1Q performance and 1H outlook when it publishes FY20 results and by then the supply chain capacity position and demand outlook for the rest of the year may be much clearer.

It strikes me, in passing, that the statements below from the TU would not appear out of place in the marketing material for a sale of the company.

“We continue to experience exceptional demand…”
“…expecting to benefit significantly from a secular shift…”
“…expect to generate record sales from products …in the first quarter of the year.”
“…also working on a number of longer-term product supply contracts and technology licenses…̶1;
“Byotrol has been positioning for such trends for many years and expects them to favour technologies like ours, presenting exceptional growth opportunities for the Group.”
“We now expect FY2021 to be one of significant growth in both revenue and EBITDA.”
“Our technologies are getting interest from all over the world now. We are increasingly well positioned for further growth post Covid19…”;