Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 18/5/2020 20:06

Looking at the trades, that strong start, lots of buys, followed by lots of sells towards the end of the day...

Trades:
2.46m buys v 2.37m sells

almost as if people were rotating the trades.. ;-)

[sikhthetech] 18/5/2020 16:19

Best1467,

No question about the product. How much will Byot earn from it though?

The product is great in some environments but not in one's where it needs to be cleaned after every event, ie kitchens after cooking, hospitals after operations etc..

How many repeat orders have they had?


Advanced Hygienics (AH) has been a partner for THREE yrs.

Have they had meaningful royalties over the last 3 yrs? Royalties from an established deal would give a rough idea as to what can be expected. Was it £millions then?

Whatever happened to Rentokil, Synergy and all the other deals?


The Mcap is around £25m and fy2021 revenues of £9m(Finncap) - is the potential already in the price?

[techair] 18/5/2020 16:06

RI has paid to Byotrol an initial license fee of US$250k (Win) and will pay a quarterly royalty payment based on product sales (Win) (with material minimum annual guaranteed payments) thereafter.

Subsequent to this deal, Byotrol will no longer incur material costs in the US (Win).

I love this part of that recent RNS

Game changer for BYOT

Win Win Win

[best1467] 18/5/2020 15:24

I don’t see how anyone doubt the quality of the Ip it’s the main value and growth driver Tristel CEO spoke in glowing Reference to the Tech and in the future it will continue to be a growth driver going forward.
Reference to the USA deal making a takeover less likely that was the other main reason I invested but the are keeping the rights to the IP in the states so while it is less likely it’s still a possibility

[riddlerone] 18/5/2020 15:16

Tick as you are filtered I cannot and will not read what you are saying but all I can say is keep doing it as its priceless for the shareprice

[sikhthetech] 18/5/2020 14:41

I think the success or otherwise of a product depends on whether they get repeat orders...


1st orders don't really say much about a product as many will simply try it. If customers repeat their orders then it can been seen as a winner..

I'd say a serious player would look at repeat orders.

If you look at Target site, most of the reviews were from those who received free samples, so no evidence of new customers with repeat orders...

[football] 18/5/2020 14:39

who spent 35 coins today hiding a post STT?Totally still paying a divi with that 55p placing that screwed there shareholders

[sikhthetech] 18/5/2020 14:33

Brownson,
Good point.

I think any major company would look for a company which can demonstrate a history of progressive deal making...including being able to retain those deals.

Otherwise it becomes a speculative punt based on Covid19.

A lot of the revenue is dependant on Covid19, which is more of a short term bet...


They have signed many deals in the past, so where have they all gone...
and whatever happened to all those deals, some global, following the Swine flu pandanmic when they were also confident of the prospects for Byotrol????..


"The significant increase in sales is in part due to the concern regarding swine flu; however it can also be attributed to a greater appreciation of the qualities, efficacy and broad applications of Byotrol. "
"We remain confident of the prospects for Byotrol "

Distributors & Parners


" Healthcare through our relationship with Synergy Health plc in Europe and through distributors in the US
* Food and beverage, both through distributors and direct sales
* Consumer products through our joint venture, Byotrol Consumer Products Ltd. "

[brownson] 18/5/2020 08:46

I'd be interested to know whether people think the recent deals make them more, or less attractive for a takeover. My feeling is they are less attractive to a major player but maybe more attractive to a punter with money

[arcadian] 18/5/2020 08:37

It surely can`t avoid being bought. It`s so cheap, in the right sector etc etc

[1gw] 18/5/2020 08:06

All right. I'll say it then. Seems like a strong start!

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2020 19:48

Riddleone,

"So EK has a price of 10p which values byotrol at £40M.So the question is What profit for 2020/21 £1m."


£40m mcap!!! Byot made £250k on revenues of £6m. They MIGHT make £1m profit.

If you think they are cheap £40m on a possible £1m profit in a YEAR's time then have a look at TLY...


These figures are for fy2020, March, results due July. not speculation on what might happen over the next year..


TLY:
Recent TU suggest £3.5-£4m ebitda on £100-£120m revenues..
and they have £9m cash...


EBITDA ~£3.5m-£4m - AHEAD of expectations of £3.4m
Revenue ~£100m-£120m, below expectations of £120m
Cash: £8.9m

paying dividends (they paid an interim divi... the final, depending on feelings around covid19 and supporting the NHS.)

Mcap £35m!!!!

[rimau1] 17/5/2020 16:07

1gw, Finncap are indeed behind the curve, there is zero chance of £9m in FY21. Worst case scenario that H2 reverts to prior year H2 run rates is £4m add in £6m for H1 already gets you to £10m. Covid impact is worth £1m incremental revenue per quarter so £11m feels prudent but if trading continues in line with Q1 for the remainder of the year thats £12m easily. This is all underlying business and zero upfront payments for licensing. So i use £11m. Maintain cost of sales at 40% of income, grow sales and marketing costs in line with revenue growth, 50% R&D increase, maintain other admin costs flat vs prior year and extend the depreciation and amortisation profile. Gets us to £2m clean PBT. With £416m shares i arrive at a Forward PE of 13. Price target of 9p is a nice round PE of 20. The good news is that i take no account of tax credits or savings/synergies from the medimark Acquisition. H2 is usually stronger than H1 which i have not factored in. I also assume zero US income in FY21, all i account for is the upfront license fee and no other one off licensing payments. Finccap with sharpen their pencils after the interim results IMO. £9m is simply Q1 actuals outperformance and Q2-Q4 in line with H2 prior year run rates. Lazy. Sickinthehead - you are welcome

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2020 15:25

1gw

"Personally I think finnCap are somewhat behind the curve now. "

What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?




As to Royalties, after being pressed on your "£m" misrepresentation, you've admitted that Solway's is "£300k" and not millions

Your comment #5977:
"Solvay Actizone is £0.3m (the payment received on 2nd April) plus the final guaranteed payment due under that agreement for this year. These cash payments from Solvay have already been booked as revenue (as I understand it) on a discounted basis so there will be little or no revenue contribution from the Solvay minimum guaranteed payment(s), but there will be cashflow."


You claim to have spoken to the Board about US partnerships but won't answer the simple question.

Advanced Hygienics (AH) has been a partner for THREE yrs.
Have they had meaningful royalties over the last 3 yrs? Royalties from an established deal would give a rough idea as to what can be expected. Was it £millions then?

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2020 15:08

Riddleone,
"can you imagine the daily amount of product (all alcohol free) that will be needed in the 25K schools in England alone "


I expect cleaning companies will use the most cost effective way to clean, whilst hopefully following guidelines. Children must be protected.


WHO guidance on cleaning schools:

""The environmental cleaning techniques and cleaning principles should be followed as far as possible. Surfaces should always be cleaned with soap and water or a detergent to remove organic matter first, followed by disinfection.

"In non-health care settings, sodium hypochlorite (bleach) may be used at a recommended concentration of 0.1% (1000ppm). Alternatively, alcohol with 70%-90% concentration may be used for surface disinfection."

For those doing the cleaning, the guidance reads: "In non-health care settings, resource limitations permitting, where disinfectants are being prepared and used, the minimum recommended PPE is rubber gloves, impermeable aprons and closed shoes."

[1gw] 17/5/2020 15:07

Personally I think finnCap are somewhat behind the curve now. It is interesting looking back at past notes.

Thursday's morning note had a target price of 9.0p against a then current price of 4.7p. It did not have an FY21 forecast (other than saying the £9m revenue to justify their 9.0p target is "not an unrealistic outlook") and showed an FY20 (the year ending 31/3/20) estimate of £6m revenue and £0.3m adj EBITDA.

If you look back to the 3rd August 2017 note, issued the day byotrol announced a placing at 4p/share, it also had a target price of 9.0p against a then-current 4.6p price. It quoted an estimate for FY20 of £9.7m revenue and £2.6m adj EBITDA. It anticipated byotrol doing a US deal in FY18 (y/e 31/3/2018) "Building upon recent EPA approval, Byotrol's 24hr anti-microbial claims are likely to attract a large US-based partner in FY18 leading to significant uplifts in subsequent FY19 and FY20 sales".

So we've lost 2+ years in securing a US partner relative to that 2017 note and that is perhaps the major reason why the share price fell so far short of the earlier finnCap target over the following [edit] 2 years.

FinnCap only upped their target price from 7p (back) to 9p on 17th April, before Thursday's deal announcement and without having visibility on FY21 or beyond revenues or earnings. I suspect they are being deliberately cautious at this stage given their past over-optimism and the lack of visibility.

I look forward to the company providing finnCap and us with greater visibility going forward and would hope finnCap can indeed up their estimates again at that point. Key to that I think will be some transparency around aggregate "guaranteed" future cash payments under the portfolio of license agreements. It would also be very helpful to understand the indicative royalty rates in the individual agreements, or even for the portfolio as a whole. Finncap do some numbers in Thursday's note on the basis of a 3% blended royalty rate on the US deal, but it's not clear if that has been sense-checked with byotrol.

The great thing about licence deals is that they are essentially "pure" profit I think once they have been done. Licence deal up-fronts/minimum guaranteed cash payments should go straight to (pre-tax) profit at some point (if not immediately) and cashflow, as should any royalty earned above these minimum guaranteed levels.

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2020 13:49

Riddleone,
"So EK has a price of 10p"


Finncap the company broker stated 9p weeks ago and the share price still never reached it, so why should it now. Obviously, after buying in he would quote a higher price as he wants to make a quick profit. He also used the word "APPARENTLY"...

"However, having this morning sold 70,000 Avacta (LON:AVCT) prematurely at 127p, I was hotted into another Covid stock, Byotrol (LON:BYOT) at 6p. Apparently the target price is much much higher – 10p first stop."




Read EK's quotes from this article.

"'I work on the assumption that I'm intellectually superior to 99 people out of 100 and I'd give the other man a good run for his money,' he says."

"'I think very quickly and carefully. The fools panic and I don't panic.' 'I love a crisis because that's when people are stupid,' he said with a broad grin. The working class are incredibly stupid. You can sell them anything if you appear to sell it sincerely. 'I've always liked fast-moving markets because the fools make more mistakes so I'm able to profit by it.'"

[riddlerone] 17/5/2020 10:59

Aside from the huge upcoming demand for disinfectants and Professional Hand Sanitisers and dispensers in the workplace can you imagine the daily amount of product (all alcohol free) that will be needed in the 25K schools in England alone when they begin to open.What an opportunity for the right products and the companies that hold a licence to produce it.

[a.fewbob] 16/5/2020 22:04

Sickinthehead,

I hope your short up to your neck.

Looks like another strong run on the cards next week.

It’s hilarious that the three covid stocks I have made huge profits on each have a resident shorter spending 24hrs a day trying to bring the stock price down.

They must have lost vast sums of money.

Hey sickinthehead,

You better phone the council and put yourself on the council house list.

[techair] 16/5/2020 21:49

I bgt more on Friday thankfully

[techair] 16/5/2020 21:47

Pardon STT? Can't hear you

[riddlerone] 16/5/2020 19:02

So EK has a price of 10p which values byotrol at £40M.So the question is What profit for 2020/21 £1m...£2M either way still much cheaper on a PE basis than TSTL