Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 18:09

"or will meaningful royalties come in from the US red cross deal if Advanced Hygienics can find funding for marketing and production?"

Advanced Hygienics has been a partner for 3 yrs.

Have they had meaningful royalties over the last 3 yrs?


And whatever happened to Rentokil or the exports to Kyorin Pharma, the Japanese company, also mentioned in this report.
Did they produce meaningful revenues?

Despite all these longstanding deals they still only made £6m revenue for fy2020, March.



"A long-standing US partner, Advanced Hygienics Inc, has signed a licensing agreement with the American Red Cross. Under the agreement, Advanced Hygienics will be manufacturing and distributing Byotrol-formulation
hand sanitisers as an official licensed product under the American Red Cross brand in retail and B2B channels. "

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 17:58

"£12m product sales (annual based on Mar-May run rate)"

They have already stated that they expect the high run rate to ease. So it's unlikely to be £12m.
Finncap have stated £9m.



"Whilst we expect the current very high levels of demand to ease at some stage over the course of FYE 2021, "

[1gw] 14/5/2020 17:37

Just as a reminder of the building blocks for this year:

£12m product sales (annual based on Mar-May run rate)
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment Americas byotrol24
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment SC Johnson Invirtu
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment Tristel/Cache
£ m royalty/minimum guaranteed payment Solvay Actizone
£ m royalty Tristel new formulation (+ any increase in actizone supply sales over Apr-May rate)

Now some of the £m may be £k this year, but it seems to me byotrol is putting together an impressive portfolio of licence deals. And even so you could argue it is only just getting started: how many more deals can it do like the Tristel/Cache one to license non-core technologies to companies whose products are under regulatory threat? how many more geographies could it license byotrol24 in? can it license Invirtu in various geographies, or will meaningful royalties come in from the US red cross deal if Advanced Hygienics can find funding for marketing and production?

[slicethepie] 14/5/2020 17:16

Perhaps if you phoned the company and spoke to David Traynor he may be able to tell you a bit more the deal. I dare you!

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 17:08

Dan, good post..

You and me both... I too was expecting their revenues to be substantially higher given the supposedly huge demand at the moment and them stating that supply chain is working well...


You got 3 down votes - The rampers and their mates are desperate for readers not to see our posts...
I wonder why?


Dan_the_Epic14 May '20 - 07:32 - 5871 of 5914
0.100000 3 3
Am I the only one who actually finds it a bit disappointing? I was expecting them to do £12 - £18m of revenue this year given the incredible demand, which would be profit after tax of something like 1-3m.

Now looks like even that low end might be the best case if they are only doing 1m in the 3 key months of march april may while companies stockpile resources.

So now Im thinking 10-12m of revenue once things settle down, and profit after tax of £600k - £1.2m. Doesn't make this cheap enough to demand a 20% rise from here.

Who are this US partner?

[slicethepie] 14/5/2020 17:02

Your second lie is that mud bath is a mate. I research my holdings thoroughly, speak to management, attend agms and any presentations they are making. Have you ever spoken to David Traynor or attended an agm? If yes to either of those I think others would give you some time.

[slicethepie] 14/5/2020 16:46

You first lie is that the accounts were unqualified

[slicethepie] 14/5/2020 15:54

I own shares in both companies but unlike you I do not post repetitive lies. The fact that you don't even understand qualified / unqualified accounts says it all. They put up with you on the tly thread only because it is your thread.

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 15:43

Slice,

The employees at TLY are working flat out in frontline to combat Covid19. Physios, NHS 111, Urgent Care Centres, reducing A&E waiting times, reducing operation waiting times..


Not much difference in Mcap between Byot & TLY... But look at their fundamentals...

Either TLY is dirt cheap or Byot is overpriced..
£100m revenues, £3.5m Adj Ebitda, £9m cash, paid dividend. Mcap £33m

Take a look..



TLY are growing exponentially. Everyone needs healthcare and Covid19 has shown how important it is.

New services including Airport, growing list of cancelled operations.

EBITDA £3.5m-£4m - AHEAD of expectations of £3.4m

Revenue £100m-£120m, below expectations of £120m
Cash: £8.9m

paying dividends (if they decide to declare a final, depending on feelings around covid19 and supporting the NHS.)


Mcap=£33m


TLY this morning:
"This statement shows they are on the frontline working alongside the NHS frontline staff..

"In partnership with the NHS, Vocare and Greenbrook Healthcare: Totally's Urgent Care division, remain committed and focused on enhancing out of hours services and urgent care treatment, helping to relieve the pressures faced by the health services, especially at the current time."


It didn't stop you and your mates from posting on the TLY thread this morning with your post which had nothing to do with TLY's news, did it???
Have YOU no shame.. Desperate or what..

[slicethepie] 14/5/2020 15:27

The employees of this company are working flat out in trying conditions all you do is hide behind your computer screen pushing out drivel SHOW some respect.

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 14:45

well you would know why Maca posted it... ;-)

"If you remember, on 23rd March they said the £1.7m firm order book for deliveries to end-June"

The March TU was the early stages of the outbreak, so it was obvious that sales would naturally increase, as it did with every other suppliers... therefore, public do buy whatever is available. If you remember distillers started provided sanitiser to NHS for free.


"So an impressive multiple, if shy of the 5x that might have been a genuinely unconstrained number."
They say supply chain is working well, don't they?


The sales have not increased substantially from their Apr update to now, given they state that Supply Chain is now working well.



"The Group’s supply chain is working well despite the global shortage of biocidal ingredients, exacerbated by unpredictable national lockdowns and border closures."

[1gw] 14/5/2020 14:31

If you remember, on 23rd March they said the £1.7m firm order book for deliveries to end-June compared to a historic number of around £0.35m. So the firm order book was around 5x the historic number. The question then was, would that mean actual sales could be expected to be 5x or would the supply chain constraints and the fact that the order book was so large mean that they wouldn't be able to add the normal amount of in-quarter sales (normal in relation to pre-quarter order book)?

[Edited]
We know they did £2.2m revenue in 1H FY20, so perhaps just over £1m in each quarter.

If they are now heading for £3m+ in 1Q, that suggests that sales in the quarter are going to be around 3x historic (i.e. last year's). So an impressive multiple, if shy of the 5x that might have been a genuinely unconstrained number.

[1gw] 14/5/2020 14:21

The point of Maca mentioning the March number I guess is that it's the only time they explicitly gave an order book that ended at end-1Q. So it lets us compare order book ahead of quarter with current expectations for actual sales for the same quarter.

23rd March TU:
£1.7m "firm orders currently sit at £1.7m for deliveries to end of June"

They now appear to expect to do more than £3m in the quarter.

"Sales in March and April both exceeded £1m and we are expecting to show similarly strong performance in May." So they are guiding to £2m+ sales in April and May (combined).

But they also say they had a £2m+ order book at end-April. £1m of that presumably was for May delivery and most of the rest for June delivery I imagine, although some might be into the following quarter.

So actual sales in the quarter appear to be heading for more or less double the firm order book as it stood at 23rd March, just ahead of the quarter.

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 14:08

Macca, Why confuse the post by including March???


In April, they stated their orders for Q1, to June, were £2M+

Today, nearly a month later, their orders are still £2m+. But no longer mention June.



Their orders for Q1 haven't increased substantially, even though supply chain seems to have eased and still no mention of orders to end of June.

[the ghost who walks] 14/5/2020 13:56

I recall STT was very negative at 2p. I guess he went short then and has lot a lot so I actually have sympathy for him and wish him well,

[1gw] 14/5/2020 13:47

STT - they've sold £1m of product in April in the meantime. So order book goes down by £1m for orders dispatched in the month and goes up by £1m from orders added in the month.

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 13:35

1gw
"means they've added around £1m in orders in April doesn't it?"

No it doesn't.

They said they 'entered the new year with orders in exceeding £2m. Now they are still stating they had orders of over £2m at end of April.

[1gw] 14/5/2020 13:27

Great to see that they're keeping the order book topped up as sales get delivered. £1m of sales in April and an order book of "over £2m" at end April (vs "exceeding £2m" at end March) means they've added around £1m in orders in April doesn't it?

And that I think is without counting licence revenue.

It looks like 1H will blow last year's £2.2m 1H revenue out of the water, doesn't it? It seems to me that we're currently looking at around £6m on a run-rate basis plus licence revenue.

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 12:56

There hasn't been any increase in orders since their last TU, 3 weeks ago.
I would have expected them to show continuing significant increases in sales going forward, especially for June, as it's only 2 weeks away!!.



3 weeks they stated - 24 Apr.
"We entered the new financial year with a strong order book exceeding £2m and expect to generate record sales from products (i.e. excluding licenses, royalties and technical development deals) in the first quarter of the year."





They haven't changed that £2m orders - no mention of orders or significant increases for June - only 2 weeks from now!!


"Sales in March and April 2020 each exceeded £1m and we are expecting to show similarly strong performance in May. Our order book at the end of April stood at over £2m. "




Where's the significant increases in orders they mentioned 3 weeks ago??? I would have thought the expected orders for Q1 to have exceeded £3m by now.
More Jam.

[1gw] 14/5/2020 12:45

As the company puts in place licensing deals with "material minimum annual guaranteed payments" I wonder if it will consider a dividend before long?

[sikhthetech] 14/5/2020 12:25

Cash has been declining for years...
As of March 31st, 6 weeks ago they only had £1.7m cash, which missed Finncap's expectations of £2.6m.


With only £1.7m cash, I wonder if they will have a placing soon.


Cash:
"Cash balances at 31 March were £1.7m."
Expectation: £2.6m.

Cash:
fy2018 £3.85m
fy2019 £2.8m
H12020 £2.01m
fy2020 £1.7m

[1gw] 14/5/2020 11:08

An interesting question now is whether the byotrol24 licensees want to pursue the Target agreement - that would seem like an easy win for them once they have an efficient supply chain scaled up.

And perhaps if Walmart was the other retailer (as evidenced by the byotrol24 product on their website) could the new licensees land them as well? At the AGM I seem to remember David Traynor saying that the second retailer was still interested but that it would want byotrol to put some marketing spend behind the product - something byotrol wasn't prepared to do at the time (risking precious cash resources) but the new licensees presumably would if they think the margin and/or exposure would be beneficial.